BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares finished last week on a strong note, climbing 2.5% on Friday to close at $58.28.
The ASX mining giant has eased around 4% over the past month, but the bigger picture remains impressive. BHP shares have surged 28% year to date and are up 54% over the past 12 months.
So, after such a powerful rally, should investors still be buying BHP shares in FY27?
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What's driving BHP higher?
BHP shares have ridden a powerful wave of investor enthusiasm for the mining sector, but it hasn't just been lucky. The company has benefited from an 18% jump in copper prices and a 7% rise in iron ore prices, giving earnings a meaningful boost.
And while BHP remains one of the world's biggest iron ore miners, it's increasingly becoming a copper powerhouse. Copper has become the star of the show as demand continues to grow thanks to electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and expanding electricity networks.
The metal reached a record high of US$6.60 per pound in May, highlighting just how tight the market has become. That shift matters. During the first half of FY26, copper contributed more than half of BHP's underlying EBITDA, underlining the company's growing exposure to one of the world's most sought-after commodities.
Strong operations, cost blowout
Operationally, the news has also been encouraging. In its third-quarter FY26 update, BHP said strong production from its flagship Escondida mine in Chile and Antamina mine in Peru meant full-year group production was expected to finish at the upper end of guidance.
Earlier this year, BHP secured a US$4.3 billion upfront payment through a long-term silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals. The deal strengthened the balance sheet while allowing BHP to unlock value from future silver production at Antamina.
Not everything has gone according to plan for BHP shares, however.
On the downside, the company's Jansen Stage 2 potash project in Canada suffered a sizeable cost blowout. Management of BHP shares now expects the project to cost US$6.9 billion, up from an earlier estimate of US$4.9 billion.
What do the experts think?
Broker sentiment is mixed on BHP shares, although few analysts appear outright bearish.
Morgan Stanley remains one of the most optimistic, retaining its overweight rating and $67.50 price target. That points to a potential 16% upside.
The broker believes recent weakness reflects little more than profit-taking after a strong rally and sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, particularly given its positive outlook for copper.
However, hold remains the dominant rating across the market.
Morgans recently reiterated its hold recommendation while increasing its 12-month target to $59.80.
Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) maintained its hold rating but lowered its target to $65. CitiGroup Inc (NYSE: C) and Jefferies also kept hold recommendations while trimming their respective price targets to $63 and $65.
Foolish takeaway
BHP enters FY27 in a strong position, supported by rising copper exposure, healthy operations, and a robust balance sheet.
While the easy gains may already be behind investors after the stock's exceptional run, brokers generally expect BHP to remain well placed if copper prices stay elevated.
For long-term investors seeking exposure to high-quality mining assets, BHP shares continue to make a compelling case.
