CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), and Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV) shares were among 72 companies that recorded fresh 52-week lows yesterday.
Among those 72 companies was a trend: the dominance of ASX healthcare shares and consumer discretionary or retail stocks.
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CSL, Wesfarmers, Endeavour shares weaken
CSL, Wesfarmers, and Endeavour shares have fallen amid significant headwinds in both of their sectors.
In the healthcare space, companies are dealing with currency headwinds as the US dollar weakens and the AUD strengthens, the implementation of US tariffs for larger companies, and uncertainty over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI).
They also face higher labour costs, while consumers sacrifice non-urgent medical procedures due to the cost-of-living crisis.
ASX biotechs are also grappling with uncertainty with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) under the Trump administration.
Crumbling consumer confidence is also contributing to delayed healthcare and fewer non-urgent medical procedures.
Consumer confidence in Australia is at its lowest level in five years amid resurgent inflation and rising interest rates.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the official interest rate for a third consecutive time yesterday due to rising inflation.
Inflation was already ticking upward before the war in Iran began, and higher fuel prices are now expected to exacerbate the impact.
We've already seen it at the petrol bowser, and economists warn it will eventually show up on our supermarket shelves, too.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 3.7% over the 12 months to February to 4.6% in March, according to the Bureau of Statistics.
The inflation surge was mostly due to a 33% spike in automotive fuel prices in the month of March (the Iran war began on 28 February).
Discretionary spending is usually the first corner cut by consumers when they have to tighten their wallets.
This does not bode well for ASX retail shares like Wesfarmers, which owns Bunnings, Kmart, Priceline, and Officeworks, nor consumer staples retailers like Endeavour, which owns the Dan Murphy's liquor store chain and a large network of pubs.
So, what do the experts think about these three ASX 200 shares? Let's take a look.
Buy, hold, or sell?
CSL shares
The CSL share price hit a 9-year low of $122.48 yesterday.
The market's largest ASX 200 healthcare share has lost half of its value over the past 12 months.
On the CommSec trading platform, CSL has a consensus moderate buy rating among 18 analysts tracking the stock.
Earlier this month, Bell Potter published a new note on CSL shares that said the company "was not out of the woods just yet".
Bell Potter has a hold rating on CSL shares and recently reduced its 12-month target from $175 to $155.
The broker said:
The current share price reflects a materially de-rated PE multiple of ~15x our FY27 NPAT forecast, bringing CSL in line with the global biopharma peer set which also trades at an avg PE of 15x.
While CSL doesn't face the same extent of generic/biosimilar competition as these biopharma peers, it does have a lower growth outlook of ~2.5% revenue CAGR (3yr) per our forecast compared to >4% avg for global peers.
Considering the low-growth outlook in the near-term, risk to FY26 guidance, and our below-consensus FY27 forecasts, we maintain our HOLD recommendation notwithstanding the historically low trading multiple.
Endeavour shares
The Endeavour share price fell to a record low of $3.13 on Tuesday.
The market's third largest ASX 200 consumer staples share has fallen 22% over 12 months.
On CommSec, Endeavour shares have a consensus hold rating among 16 analysts.
Yesterday, Bell Potter reiterated its buy rating on Endeavour shares after the group's 3Q FY26 report.
However, the broker reduced its price target from $4.15 to $3.85.
Bell Potter said:
Although the outlook for consumer spending has weakened due to the Middle East conflict and a worsening rate environment, we believe market expectations are low for the company's strategic refresh, leaving greater room for upside potential.
We see opportunity for consensus upgrades: a strengthening of Dan Murphy's lowest-price perception; and cost-out opportunities.
Wesfarmers shares
The Wesfarmers share price reached a 52-week low of $71.31 yesterday.
The market's largest ASX 200 consumer discretionary share has declined 9% over 12 months.
On CommSec, Wesfarmers shares also score a hold rating from 16 analysts rating the company.
John Athanasiou from Red Leaf Securities is pessimistic on Wesfarmers shares.
He explained his sell rating on the ASX 200 retail share recently on The Bull:
Its businesses are household names, but recent trading suggests slowing consumer demand and cost pressures are weighing on sentiment.
With much of its value already priced in amid a mixed outlook on near term retail growth, Wesfarmers lacks fresh catalysts to drive meaningful upside.
Trimming positions into strength may be prudent for investors seeking a better risk-reward proposition.
