The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price closed 1% higher on Tuesday afternoon, at $4.67 a piece.
The latest uptick means the shares are now up 32% for the year-to-date and have soared an impressive 67% higher over the past 12 months.
ASX 200 mining shares went on a rollercoaster ride over the March quarter. Commodity prices rocketed in January, sending South32 higher. In fact, South32 was one of the best performers on the ASX 200 index in January.
The miner benefited from a perfect storm of strong central bank buying, falling US interest rates, and dwindling expectations for the US dollar. These all drove investors to safe-haven commodities like gold, silver, and copper.
But it all changed when the war between the US and Iran escalated in late-February. An injection of fear about rising oil prices, energy costs, and supply quickly cooled the mining sector in March.
While most ASX mining shares have since recovered some of their losses, South32 is streaking ahead. Compared to its mining peers BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), South32 shares have outperformed over the past month, year-to-date and past 12 months.
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Why is the South32 share price racing ahead?
South32 mines and produces commodities, including bauxite, aluminium, copper, silver, lead, zinc, nickel, manganese, and metallurgical coal, so it has been well-positioned to absorb the uptick in demand across several minerals and metals.
Unlike BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue, it is not heavily tied to iron or and benefits from diversity across other metals and minerals.
Because of this diversity, the miner has been able to post some strong financial results, solid production figures and shown it has great momentum.
In January, the miner announced that it had exceeded expectations for first-half production. Alumina production was up 3% in the first half. Meanwhile, aluminium production was up 2%, zinc up 13%, and manganese up 58%. Overall, the company's results were ahead of consensus.
Later in February the diversified miner reported a 29% jump in profit and 16% increase in underlying earnings.
Can the shares keep climbing?
If this momentum continues, alongside a continued uptick of commodity demand and prices, I think the South32 share price could continue to outpace BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue in 2026.
TradingView data shows that the majority of brokers (12 out of 16) have a buy or strong buy rating on South32 shares. Another three have a hold rating and one rates the shares as a sell.
The average target price of $4.93 implies a potential 6% upside at the time of writing. But some brokers are more bullish and are tipping the share price to jump another 18% to $5.51.
