BHP shares vs Woodside shares: Which is the better buy?

Oil and copper are both important commodities, but I think one gives investors a more compelling long-term opportunity.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) are two of the biggest resources shares on the ASX.

Both are quality businesses. Both generate large amounts of cash when commodity prices are favourable. And both can play a useful role in an income-focused portfolio.

But if I had to choose one to buy today, I would pick BHP.

The main reason is copper.

A female miner wearing a high vis vest and hard hard smiles and holds a clipboard while inspecting a mine site with a colleague.

Image source: Getty Images

Why I like Woodside

Woodside is still an ASX share I rate.

It gives investors exposure to global energy markets, has high-quality LNG assets, and can generate very strong cash flow when oil and gas prices are elevated.

That can also support attractive dividends.

In the current environment, the business has benefited from higher energy prices. The conflict in the Middle East has added risk to global oil supply, and that has helped keep energy prices strong.

However, this is also the main reason I would be a little cautious.

If the US and Iran sign a peace deal, and oil supplies are able to flow more freely through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could pull back meaningfully.

That would not make Woodside a bad business. But it could take some heat out of the investment case in the short term.

Energy markets can change quickly, and Woodside's earnings remain highly exposed to oil and gas prices. For investors who already own the stock, I can see the case for holding. But if I were putting fresh money to work today, I would prefer BHP shares.

Why BHP shares win for me

BHP is also exposed to commodity cycles, so it is not immune from volatility.

Iron ore prices, China's economy, project costs, and global growth all matter.

But I think BHP has a more compelling long-term demand story because of copper.

Copper is central to electrification, electricity networks, renewable energy infrastructure, data centres, industrial activity, and electric vehicles. The world is going to need a lot of it over the next decade.

At the same time, I am not convinced supply will keep up with demand.

New copper mines are difficult to develop. They can take many years to approve, fund, build, and ramp up. Grades are also declining at some older mines, and political or permitting risks can delay new projects.

That creates a very attractive setup for established producers.

BHP is already the world's largest copper producer, which puts it in a strong position if copper prices remain elevated over the long term.

The valuation question

There is one important caveat.

BHP shares have performed strongly this year, and the valuation is no longer as compelling as it was.

That means I would not necessarily go all-in today.

Instead, I would consider buying gradually. That could mean starting with a partial position and adding more if the share price pulls back.

I think that approach makes sense because BHP is still a cyclical business. Even if the long-term copper story is attractive, commodity shares rarely move in a straight line.

There will almost certainly be periods when sentiment cools, prices fall, or investors worry about global growth. Those moments could provide better entry points.

Foolish takeaway

Woodside and BHP are both quality ASX resources shares.

But BHP looks more attractive to me because of its copper exposure.

So, while I still like Woodside, BHP would be my pick today. I would just be patient with the entry point after its strong run this year.

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Young woman dressed in suit sitting at cafe staring at laptop screen with hands to her forehead looking tense.
Resources Shares

Why is the BHP share price so volatile this week?

The BHP share price has fallen 9% since last Wednesday's record high.

Read more »

Business people standing at a mine site smiling.
Resources Shares

2 ASX mining shares to buy: experts

Australia is in the midst of a new mining boom, and experts have buy ratings on these two shares.

Read more »

Man in yellow hard hat looks through binoculars as man in white hard hat stands behind him and points.
Resources Shares

Is this ASX mining stock a better buy than BHP shares?

Bell Potter thinks this mining stock could be a top buy.

Read more »

Buy, hold, and sell ratings written on signs on a wooden pole.
Broker Notes

Up 58% in a year, are BHP shares still a good buy today?

Two leading analysts offer their outlooks for BHP’s surging shares.

Read more »

Happy young couple doing road trip in tropical city.
Resources Shares

If you invested $10,000 in BHP shares 10 years ago, here is what they would be worth today

Here is the number that might surprise you.

Read more »

Man in yellow hard hat looks through binoculars as man in white hard hat stands behind him and points.
Resources Shares

Rio Tinto shares slump 7.5% from an all-time high: Buy, sell or hold?

The shares have rallied around 65% over the past 12 months alone. Can they keep going?

Read more »

Business people standing at a mine site smiling.
Resources Shares

3 top ASX mining shares for investors right now

Pullbacks from recent highs has improved the entry points across all three.

Read more »

Cheerful businessman with a mining hat on the table sitting back with his arms behind his head while looking at his laptop's screen.
Resources Shares

Are Fortescue or Rio Tinto shares the better buy?

Both ASX mining shares can pay large dividends, but I would focus on commodity mix, copper exposure, and long-term resilience.

Read more »