The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has been one of the best performers of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the last year, rising by more than 50%. Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares have produced a similar return over the last 12 months.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns, of course, particularly when it comes to resources. That's because the businesses involved are exposed to cyclical shifts in supply and demand as commodity prices change.
BHP is involved in multiple resources, so it's exposed to multiple price cycles, namely iron, copper and coal. The ASX mining share is also working on a potash project in Canada, which will give the business diversification to another commodity and a different avenue for earnings growth.
So, it may be unrealistic for investors to expect ASX mining shares to keep climbing year after year. Let's take a look at what experts think could happen with the BHP share price.
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Analyst views on the BHP share price
According to CMC Invest, there have been 13 analyst ratings on the business within the last three months.
Of those 13 analyst ratings, only two ratings were a buy. The other 11 analyst ratings were a hold rating.
The average price target of those 13 analyst ratings is $60.27. A price target tells investors where the analyst thinks the share price will be in 12 months from the time of that expert's investment call.
Therefore, those 13 analysts collectively believe the BHP share price will trade at $60.27 a year from now. That would represent a 3% decline from where it is at the time of writing.
The most optimistic price target is $68.01, suggesting a possible rise of around 9% from where it is at the time of writing.
However, the most negative price target is $51.93, implying a potential fall of 17% from where it is at the time of writing.
So, while these analysts suggest the business could hang on to most of the gains from the past 12 months, they also believe it may have peaked and is unlikely to keep rising from here.
Therefore, it could be a good idea for Aussie investors to consider other ASX share opportunities rather than the BHP share price at this stage of the commodity cycle.
