Flight Centre shares drop 18% this year: Buy, sell or hold?

Can the travel stock keep flying higher?

| More on:
A woman looks nervous and uncertain holding a hand to her chin while looking at a paper cut out of a plane that she's holding in her other hand. representing the falling Air New Zealand share price today

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Flight Centre shares have risen 18.67% over the past month following a positive FY26 trading update, despite being down 18.5% over the past year, with expectations for strong second-half performance.
  • Analysts are largely optimistic about Flight Centre, with most recommending a buy or strong buy and target prices suggesting potential upsides ranging from 23.9% to 33.97%.
  • The current share price dip is seen as a buying opportunity, with potential for significant recovery and growth, supported by positive projections for the company's corporate segment and operational improvements.

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) shares are trading in the green in Tuesday lunchtime trade. At the time of writing, the Australian travel agency's shares are 0.074% higher at $13.60 a piece. 

The shares have had a great run over the past month, climbing 18.67% after the company released a trading update in early November. In its presentation, Flight Centre's Managing Director, Graham Turner, revealed that the company is off to a positive start for FY26. He said that first-quarter results and preliminary October trading data confirmed momentum across both corporate and leisure segments.

He added that the company's Leisure segment isn't out of the woods just yet, but the company thinks there are positive signs that the recovery is coming. 

Flight Centre also said it is targeting an underlying profit before tax of $305 million to $340 million in FY26. This represents a 5.5% to 17.6% increase on the prior corresponding period. Although the majority of this increase is expected in the second half of FY26. The travel group is expected to post flat H1 FY26 profit due to "cyclical challenges".

Over the past year, Flight Centre shares have fallen 18.5%.

Buy, sell or hold Flight Centre shares?

I think that the current share price dip presents a great opportunity for investors to buy into the stock ahead of a potential price surge. The shares are currently trading around a five-year low and I think the chance that the share price could return to Flight Centre's all-time high of $61.09 in 2018 at some point in the future isn't completely off the table.

Analysts are mostly optimistic about the stock, too. Data shows that out of 14 analysts, 11 currently have a buy or strong buy rating on Flight Centre shares. The maximum target price is $18.26, which implies that the share could rocket 33.97% higher over the next 12 months, according to the share price at the time of writing.

Macquarie recently confirmed its outperform rating on the shares and raised its target price to $16.85. At the time of writing, this represents a potential 23.9% upside over the next 12 months. The broker said that the company is performing well and that it is confident Flight Centre corporate will deliver strong revenue growth through FY26 with improving margins as operational and cost initiatives come through.

The analysts at Jarden are more bullish on Flight Centre shares. In a note to investors, the team said it sees green shoots of recovery for the travel company. Jarden has a buy rating and $18 price target on the shares, which implies a potential 32.4% upside ahead.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Opinions

A young man punches the air in delight as he reacts to great news on his mobile phone.
Opinions

4 ASX shares I'd buy with $10,000 today

Here’s where I’d invest some spare cash right now.

Read more »

A man leaps from a stack of gold coins to the next, each one higher than the last.
Gold

Why I think ASX 200 gold shares like Newmont and Northern Star will keep surging higher in 2026

After smashing the benchmark in 2025, I think Northern Star, Newmont and rival ASX 200 gold stocks will outperform again…

Read more »

A child dressed in army clothes looks through his binoculars with leaves and branches on his head.
Opinions

Up 735% in a year! The red-hot EOS share price is smashing Droneshield and other defence stocks

Investor interest in defence stocks has boomed.

Read more »

a uranium-fuelled mushroom shaped cloud explosion surrounded by a circle of rainbow light with a symbol of an atom to one side of it.
Opinions

What's next for the best-performing ASX 200 stock of 2025?

This ASX stock boomed in 2026.

Read more »

Woman thinking in a supermarket.
Dividend Investing

I'd buy this ASX dividend stock in any market

This business is a great option for dividends.

Read more »

A young man talks tech on his phone while looking at a laptop. A financial graph is superimposed across the image.
Opinions

3 reasons Xero shares are a screaming buy right now

Here's what I expect from the tech stock this year.

Read more »

A woman smiles at the outlook she sees through binoculars.
Opinions

Why I look at past performance of ASX shares to help think about the future performance outlook

Past performance may well be helpful for judging how future performance will go.

Read more »

Woman thinking in a supermarket.
Opinions

Forget Coles shares, I'd buy this roaring retailer instead

Here's the retailer I'd be buying this year.

Read more »