CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have been in the spotlight in recent weeks.
Following the release of a disappointing trading update, the biotechnology giant's shares have tumbled into the red again.
Is this a buying opportunity? Let's see what analysts at Ord Minnett are saying about this beaten down blue chip.
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What is the broker saying?
Ord Minnett highlights that CSL recently downgraded its revenue growth guidance for FY 2026 and deferred the potential demerger of its struggling Seqirus business. It said:
CSL downgraded FY26 guidance for revenue growth to 2–3% from 4-5% and net profit growth to 4–7% from 7–10%, with reduced demand for albumin in China due to Beijing's cost-saving measures hurting its dominant Behring division and further expected declines in vaccination rates in the key US market dragging on its Seqirus business.
That "heightened volatility" in the US influenza vaccine market – the company forecasts a further 12% decline in general population vaccination rates in FY26 and a decline in vaccine revenue in the mid-teens – also means the proposed spin-off of the Seqirus division will be deferred until conditions improve, versus the original schedule to complete the separation by the end of FY26.
And while there are some favourable currency movements, the broker has still trimmed its earnings estimates for the coming years. It said:
The company did flag some higher-than-expected benefits from currency movements, however, which in Ord Minnett's view means market expectations for net profit are only likely to be tempered rather than slashed. The vaccine uncertainty has also led the company to downgrade guidance for FY27 and FY28 net profit growth to "high single digits" from double-digit growth previously. Post the announcement, we have cut our EPS estimates by 2.1%, 2.0% and 1.9% for FY26, FY27 and FY28, respectively.
Should you invest?
According to the note, the broker has reaffirmed its hold rating on CSL shares with a trimmed price target of $235.00. While only a hold rating, this implies potential upside of 29% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its hold recommendation, the broker said:
There is apparent value in CSL assuming this is the last of the major events to shake the company following a torrid few months that saw the share price slide more than 30%. […]
Our concerns over revenue growth and the timing of margin recovery in the Behring business, however, along with the complications introduced by plans to spin off the Seqirus business, and most recently by the new US tariffs, means we maintain our Hold recommendation and cut our target price to $235.00 from $258.00.
