Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) shares have been smashed in 2026 so far. At the time of writing, the shares have tumbled 63% for the year-to-date.
The shares dropped under the $100-market to a decade-long low of just $90 a piece in late-April, and after a brief rebound to around $101, they've tumbled again.
At the time of writing, Cochlear shares are changing hands at $97.18 a piece.
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What happened?
Cochlear shares crashed in April after the ASX healthcare company downgraded its FY26 earnings guidance, citing weaker conditions across developed markets and softer demand.
The update made waves as one of the worst earnings downgrades in the company's listed history.
The company cut its net profit guidance for FY26 to $290-330 million, down significantly from previous guidance of $435-460 million. The market was shocked at the update.
Weaker conditions and softer demand issues included hospital capacity constraints, lower referral activity which weighed heavily on surgical volumes in developed markets, higher cost-of-living which sees households have a lower fund for discretionary spending, and some operational headwinds.
Geopolitical volatility also played a part. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East resulted in order cancellations and created risks for delivery delays to several countries in the region.
Not only that but the guidance downgrade came off the back of a softer-than-expected half-year result in February this year.
And as if the headwinds weren't strong enough, the company has also endured a sector-wide rotation away from ASX healthcare shares this year, as global volatility, a weaker US dollar, higher US tariffs, and increased labour costs prompted investors to sell up their holdings.
Why I think Cochlear shares are a bargain right now
After such a sharp sell off, I think the shares are now oversold and at $100 each, are trading well below fair value.
Despite the earnings downgrade, Cochlear remains a strong, globally dominant business.
The company is a global leader for implantable hearing devices. It has strong brand recognition and the long-term outlook is intact.
Ageing populations and more awareness around treatment options is expected to support demand over time.
And while the company's short-term earnings have changed, forecasts suggest that there will see a recovery over the next one or two years.
What do the experts think?
It looks like analysts consider the share price sell off to be an overreaction, with consensus of an upside ahead.
TradingView data shows that eight out of 18 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. Another nine have a hold rating and one rates the stock as a strong sell.
The average $130.70 target price implies a 35% upside at the time of writing. Meanwhile, some expect the share price to rocket another 75% to $170 a piece.
