Why is the Genesis Minerals share price leaping 17% this week?

A pleasing production report amid the gold price smashing through US$4,300 per ounce have led to a great week.

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Key points

  • Genesis Minerals' Strong Performance: Genesis Minerals shares have risen 17% this week, driven by the surging gold price and a positive September quarter update, reporting record production and robust financial results.
  • Gold Price Reaches New Heights: The gold price has hit a record high above US$4,300 per ounce today, up 65% in 2025, fuelled by central bank purchases, potential US interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions, enhancing gold's appeal.
  • Investment Outlook for Genesis Minerals: Macquarie rates Genesis Minerals as its top mid-cap ASX gold pick, citing potential expansion prospects, with a 12-month target share price of $6.50, suggesting continued positive sentiment.

The Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) share price is up 17% this week amid the gold price smashing through US$4,300 per ounce today.

Genesis Minerals shares are up 17.35% over the week to $6.80 apiece at the time of writing.

The Genesis Minerals share price lifted 7.5% yesterday after the gold miner pleased the market with its September quarter update.

Genesis Minerals reported record gold production of 72,878 ounces during the quarter, surpassing its guidance.

Revenue totalled $386.7 million, and the miner contained its costs within expectations to deliver an estimated unaudited net profit of between $105 million and $115 million.

Genesis Minerals sold 75,136 ounces of gold at an average price of $5,147 per ounce at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,529 per ounce.

Managing Director Raleigh Finlayson said:

We are capitalising on the opportunity presented by the strong gold price, with production running ahead of annual guidance and costs at the bottom end of the range. This has resulted in a robust underlying cash build of $166m in three months.

The result provides a valuable insight into the cash generating capacity of the Company as we implement our ASPIRE 400 strategy.

On Friday, Genesis Minerals shares are pulling back, down 2.9%, while the broader market is also lower after hitting a record yesterday.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is currently 9,002.9 points, down 0.7%.

What's happening with the gold price?

All ASX gold shares are benefitting from the rip-roaring gold price in 2025.

Gold is trading at a fresh record high above US$4,300 per ounce on Friday.

It was only a week ago that the gold price crossed the US$4,000 mark for the first time ever.

The yellow metal is now up a staggering 65% in 2025, completely obliterating what was considered an impressive lift of 27% in 2024.

Expectations of further interest rate cuts in the US have pushed the commodity price higher this week.

Analysts at Trading Economics said investors were seeking safety amid greater US-China trade tensions and the continuing US government shutdown.

The analysts said:

The precious metal has surged more than 60% so far this year, supported by strong central bank buying, expectations of aggressive rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical risks.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments on signs of a weakening labor market led investors to nearly fully price in a 25-bps rate cut at this month's meeting, with another likely in December, boosting gold's appeal in a low-interest-rate environment.

The gold price has ripped since early 2024 due to central banks aggressively buying up the safe-haven asset to diversify their reserves.

ASX gold shares investors are exuberant

Large inflows into gold ETFs around the world last month prompted Goldman Sachs to revise its short-term forecast for the gold price to US$4,900 per ounce by December 2026.

The top global broker said the gold price could go even higher, commenting (courtesy Reuters):

We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate.

Betashares reports that two of the five fastest-risers among hundreds of ETFs on the Aussie market last month were ASX gold ETFs.

Both ASX gold ETFs rose by about 20% each over the month. Find out which ones here.

Should you buy Genesis Minerals shares?

In a note published 1 October, top broker Macquarie named Genesis Minerals as its preferred mid-cap gold share.

The broker said:

Mid-cap top pick remains GMD with the new indications that our long-assumed expansion case (not in consensus) is more likely.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on Genesis Minerals with a 12-month target share price of $6.50.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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