The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) hit a new record high of 9,109.7 points on Thursday following news of a weaker jobs market.
The ASX 200 surged immediately after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its latest monthly employment data at 11.30am.
Seasonally-adjusted unemployment jumped 0.3% to 4.5% in September, which is the highest level since November 2021.
The news has spurred renewed hope of another interest rate cut before the year is out.
The ASX 200's new record represented a 1.3% increase on yesterday's closing value.
Currently, the ASX 200 is trading at 9,065.5 points, up 0.8%.
ASX 200 real estate stocks and financial shares, particularly the banks, surged on the news.
ASX REITS are up 2.2% while the financial sector is up 1.5%.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares have leapt 5.2% higher to $229.20.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are up 1.7% to $169.66, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) is up 1.5% to $39.75, and the National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price is up 1.1% to $44.04.
The ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price just hit a new all-time high of $37.08, up 2.7%.
AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares are leading the ASX 200 today, up 9.2% to $1.92 after reaching a 52-week high of $2.01 in earlier trading.
Let's take a look at the jobs data.
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Australian unemployment jumps in September
The ABS reported a 0.3% jump in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 4.2% in August to 4.5% in September.
This follows no change in August, a 0.1% fall in July, and a 0.2% increase in June.
Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said:
There were 34,000 more unemployed people in September. The number of employed people also grew, up 15,000 in the same period.
As a result of these increases, the participation rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 67.0 per cent, although this is below the record high of 67.2 per cent we saw at the beginning of the year.
The employment-to-population ratio remained steady at 64%.
More men than women facing unemployment
The ABS said the number of unemployed men rose by 24,000 to 370,000 last month.
The number of unemployed women rose by 10,000 to 314,000.
Full-time employment rose by 9,000 as a result of full-time employed men increasing by 23,000 and full-time employed women decreasing by 15,000.
Part-time employment rose by 6,000. This was driven by 19,000 more women finding part-time work last month, while the number of men employed part-time fell 13,000.
The ABS reports both seasonally adjusted and trend data on the unemployment rate.
In trend terms, the unemployment rate was steady at 4.3% in September.
That followed a 0.1% rise in August, steadiness in July, and an increase of 0.1% in June.
What this means for interest rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has two key goals that determine its decisions on interest rates.
The RBA wants to maintain full employment, while also ensuring inflation is sustainably within the 2% to 3% band, and ideally at 2.5%.
The RBA Board decided to keep the official cash rate on hold at 3.6% after its last meeting on 30 September.
In the minutes for that meeting, board members expressed concern that monthly inflation data for July and August suggested stronger-than-expected inflation for the September quarter.
Key contributors to the stronger monthly figures were the rising cost of building homes in Australia's crippled housing market, the cost of services in the economy, and the cessation of state government electricity rebates.
The ABS is due to release the September quarter inflation data on 29 October.
The RBA board will announce its next interest rate decision on 4 November.
Labour markets have recently weakened in many Western nations, prompting rate cuts by the Bank of England and the US Fed Reserve.
The US Fed Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since December 2024 last month.
The Fed reduced the US interest rate range to between 4% and 4.25%, which is well above Australia's cash rate of 3.6%.
