The gold price smashed a new high on Tuesday, trading at an intraday peak of US$4,177 per ounce at the time of writing.
This new record comes less than a week after the gold price broke through the US$4,000 mark for the first time in history.
The gold price is now up 59% in 2025 alone.
The rising gold price continues to push ASX 200 gold shares higher.
The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) rose 2.9% on Tuesday, and is now up 20% in the past month and 102% in the year to date.
By comparison, the S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) rose 0.3% on Tuesday, and is up 1% over the past month and 8.8% over the year.
The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price closed at $25.04, up 2.8% today and up 62% in the year to date.
The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price is also up 1.9% today to $11.42 and up 135% in 2025.
Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares finished 4.5% higher at $138.99, which is a 131% increase in the year to date.
Analysts at Trading Economics said investors were ramping up safe-haven buying amid the US Government shutdown, renewed US-China trade tensions, and increased expectations of US interest rate cuts.
The analysts said:
US President Trump last week reignited a trade war with China, threatening a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese goods and imposing export controls. In response, Beijing vowed countermeasures if Trump follows through.
Market anxiety also lingered over the prolonged US government shutdown, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said is beginning to affect the economy.
The markets are currently pricing in a 97% probability of a 0.25% US interest rate cut this month and a 90% chance of a cut in December.
Image source: Getty Images
Gold price to go to US$4,900 per ounce, says Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the gold price in 2026.
The broker now expects the gold price to rise to US$4,900 per ounce by December 2026, with risk skewed to the upside.
Goldman's research team cited strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as one reason for their revised forecast.
According to Reuters, the broker said:
We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate.
The main reason behind the astounding ascendancy of the gold price since early 2024 is strong central bank purchasing.
Goldman Sachs Research analyst, Lina Thomas, said central banks have increased their gold purchases by about 5-fold since 2022.
The catalyst for this was Russia's foreign-currency reserves being frozen following the Ukraine invasion.
Thomas wrote in an article:
We view this as a structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal.
Goldman Sachs expects central banks, especially in emerging markets, to continue buying gold for three more years.
Our rationale is that emerging market central banks remain significantly underweight gold compared to their developed market counterparts and are gradually increasing allocations as part of a broader diversification strategy.
The broker estimates that China holds less than 10% of its reserves in gold, compared to 70% for the US, Germany, France, and Italy.
A recent World Gold Council survey found 95% of central banks expect global gold holdings to increase further over the next year.
