If you've been keeping an eye on the charts, you'll have noticed the outsized gains posted over the past six months by some of Australia's top S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining shares.
That strong run has been fuelled, among other factors, by a resilient iron ore price, rocketing gold and iron ore prices, and resurgent coal prices.
With a lot of miners represented on the ASX 200, this has helped the benchmark Aussie index gain 16.9% over the past six months.
Now, here's how these ASX 200 mining shares have performed over this same time:
- Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) are up 32.2% amid strengthening iron ore prices.
- Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares are up 49.0% amid rebounding coal prices.
- Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) shares are up 99.3% amid surging copper prices.
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) are up 15.5% amid record setting gold prices.
Aside from Capstone copper, all of the above miners also pay two fully franked dividends per year.
At Thursday's closing price Fortescue shares trade on a 5.6% yield, Northern Star shares trade on a 2.2% yield, and Whitehaven shares trade on a 2.2% dividend yield.
Not coincidentally, these four ASX 200 mining shares are also the ones that the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believe have the most potential upside, if the current spot prices for their core elements is maintained.
Image source: Getty Images
Why Macquarie says these ASX 200 mining shares could rocket
In a new report out this week, the broker notes that spot prices are 22% higher for gold, 24% higher for iron ore and 14% higher for copper than its existing estimates for calendar year 2026. The spot price for thermal coal is 20% above Macquarie's estimates from calendar year 2027.
And that could mean some outsized gains in the pipeline for these ASX 200 mining shares.
Commenting on the "largest upside for high op leveraged plays" the broker said Fortescue shares, Capstone Copper shares, Whitehaven shares and Northern Star shares "would be key beneficiaries if spot persisted".
Macquarie added, "With the tariff rhetoric invoking a bulk, base and new energy pull back, there is still spot upside to consensus and MQe. Gold upside is material."
What kind of upside are we talking about if spot prices persist?
So, just how much could these ASX 200 mining shares return?
Well, under existing estimates, Macquarie has a $16.50 price target on Fortescue shares, with a dividend yield of 5.2%.
Under the spot scenario, the broker has as $36.50 price target and a 7.5% dividend yield.
Fortescue shares closed on Thursday trading for $19.81 each.
For Whitehaven shares, Macquarie has a $7.25 price target with a 1.2% dividend yield. Under persistent spot prices, that rises to a price target of $12.00 a share with a 2.9% dividend yield.
Whitehaven shares closed yesterday trading for $6.92.
"Thematically, the accelerating ESG momentum could introduce further valuation downside risks, reflected in higher cost of borrowing and multiple compression," the broker cautioned on the risk front.
And Macquarie's price target for Capstone Copper shares increases from the current $13.70 to $19.70 is spot prices are maintained. Capstone shares closed on Thursday changing hands for $13.46 apiece.
"Variances in the Santo Domingo sell-down, which vary to our base case, has the potential to present downside risks to our forecasts," the broker said.
Which brings us to ASX 200 mining share Northern Star.
If spot gold prices are maintained, Macquarie's price target for the gold miner rises from $27.00 a share to $61.00 a share. And the dividend yield estimate increases from 1.8% to 2.4%.
Northern Star shares closed on Thursday trading for $25.46 each.
"The KCGM mill expansion remaining on plan remains important to our outlook and, in our view, potentially impacts the development timing of Hemi," Macquarie noted.
