Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares closed around 1% lower on Wednesday afternoon, at $173.92 a piece.
This latest trade price means Rio Tinto shares have now fallen around 11% from an all-time high of $194.47 recorded in early June.
But it's still been an incredible success story for the ASX mining stock recently. Even after cooling from a record high, its shares are still around 18% higher year to date and 66% higher than a year ago.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) closed around 0.2% higher on Wednesday afternoon and is up around 1% year to date.
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So, if I bought $5,000 of Rio Tinto shares 12 months ago, what would it be worth today?
Rio Tinto shares were trading around $105 each this time last year, 66% lower than the share price at the time of writing.
That means your $5,000 investment 12 months ago would now be worth $8,300.
Can the miner's shares return to record highs?
After an impressive rally over the past 12 months, it looks like Rio Tinto shares have now peaked.
Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a hold rating on the miner's shares. But the latest $173.26 target price now implies a very minor 0.4% downside for Rio Tinto shares, at the time of writing.
TradingView data reflects something similar. Eight out of 16 analysts have a hold rating on the shares. Another six have a buy or strong buy rating, and two rate the shares as a strong sell.
The average $184.01 target price implies a potential 6% upside at the time of writing. Although some more bullish analysts still think the share price could increase another 24% to $215.32. Then the more bearish of the bunch forecast Rio Tinto shares to fall up to 16% to a minimum $145.84 price target, at the time of writing.
The team at Bell Potter are very bullish on Rio Tinto shares and believes that we're only at the beginning of a sustained commodity supercycle. The broker also believes that Rio Tinto is the highest-quality way to gain exposure to copper and aluminium.
Meanwhile, Macquarie lifted its price target on the miner's shares to $188 in mid-June and downgraded its stance to a hold rating.
The team at Morgans also has a hold rating on the shares. The broker thinks the miner's balance sheet is strong and dividends are well-supported, but warns that the near-term earnings outlook looks balanced rather than clearly positive.
