How to know when to buy, hold, or sell ASX shares

You've got to know when to hold 'em, and you've got to know when to fold 'em.

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Key points

  • Buying ASX shares is optimal when quality stocks are undervalued, like Treasury Wine Estates recovering from market worries or Woolworths during price dips, while recognising the long-term value in fairly priced stocks like ResMed and Temple & Webster.
  • Holding shares in strong, consistently growing companies like Pro Medicus and TechnologyOne allows for the benefits of compounding, rewarding investors who remain patient with long-term growth prospects.
  • Selling should be reserved for cases where valuations become unrealistic, such as Commonwealth Bank being overpriced, or when speculative stocks like Brainchip fail to meet expectations.

Buying ASX shares is the easy part. The real challenge comes later: deciding whether to buy more, hold on, or hit the sell button. These choices can make or break your returns over the long run.

Here's a simple framework — with some real ASX examples — to help guide those decisions.

When to buy

One of the best times to buy is when a quality business is temporarily out of favour, trading at a discount to its long-term potential.

Take Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE). Market worries over global demand have weighed on its share price, but the company still owns premium brands and has been growing its footprint in key markets like China and the U.S.

Similarly, Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are down in the dumps right now. It isn't a flashy stock, but it is a defensive giant with steady cash flow and dominant market share in Australian supermarkets.

It is also worth remembering that you don't always need to wait for a bargain.

Buying high-quality ASX shares at fair prices can be just as rewarding if you plan to hold for the long term. ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD), with its global leadership in sleep and respiratory care, and Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW), with its fast-growing online retail platform, are examples of stocks that may not look cheap but have significant growth potential that justifies their valuations.

When to hold

Holding is often underrated, yet it is the stage where compounding works its magic. If the company is still growing strongly and your original thesis is intact, there's no need to sell.

For example, Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) has been delivering consistent revenue growth through its cutting-edge medical imaging software. With long-term contracts and global demand rising, it is a classic compounding story worth holding.

Another one is TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE). As one of Australia's most successful software-as-a-service companies, it has built a reputation for sticky customers and recurring revenues. Long-term holders have been rewarded handsomely, and the growth runway remains strong.

When to sell

Selling should be the exception, not the rule — but sometimes it is the smart move.

Consider Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA). It is a high-quality bank, but it is also widely regarded as one of the most expensive bank stocks in the world. If the valuation becomes detached from realistic earnings growth, taking profits might make sense.

On the other end of the spectrum is Brainchip Ltd (ASX: BRN). Despite plenty of hype on social media around its AI technology, the company has almost no sales, faces huge competition, and has been criticised for poor management. When a speculative stock fails to deliver, investors may be better off cutting their losses.

Foolish takeaway

The art of knowing when to buy, hold, or sell comes down to discipline. Look for quality ASX shares at good prices, hold onto long-term compounders, and don't be afraid to walk away from overvalued or speculative names.

By following this framework, you can avoid knee-jerk reactions and let your investments work harder for you over the years.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Pro Medicus, ResMed, Technology One, Temple & Webster Group, and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed, Technology One, and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus, Technology One, Temple & Webster Group, and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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