There are a lot of ASX 200 shares for investors to choose from. But not all are necessarily buys.
So, let's find out if Morgans likes any of the three popular ASX 200 shares named below. Here's what it is saying about them:
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Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP)
This auto products company disappointed with its full year results last month. This was driven partly by weaker margins in the normally reliable Trade segment.
And with management expecting its FY 2026 earnings to be weighted to the second half, Morgans isn't in a rush to buy shares. Instead, it has put a hold rating and $3.90 price target on them. It said:
FY25 was a year of disruption as BAP worked through a large-scale restructuring and simplification program. Positively, some benefits are starting to be realised (~A$27.5m net cost benefit in FY25), which should lead to improved operational performance in the core Specialist Wholesale division in FY26.
Despite progress, ongoing underperformance within Retail/NZ (2H sales -5.9%/-4.6%) and weakness within Trade's 4Q (May/June market share losses) continued to significantly detract from earnings (2H NPAT -14%). While BAP is making progress on its turnaround program, the absence of a trading update/FY26 guidance, ongoing Board uncertainty, and expectations for a 2H earnings skew sees us preferring to wait for clearer evidence of an earnings base. HOLD.
Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL)
Unlike Bapcor, this gold miner impressed Morgans with its FY 2025 results. It notes that this was driven by operational consistency, production growth, and a very strong gold price.
The good news is that it doesn't believe it is too late to invest in this ASX 200 share. Morgans has put a buy rating and $8.82 price target on its shares. It said:
CYL delivered impressive FY25 financials following a year of operational consistency, value accretive organic growth and portfolio optimisation via M&A. Record gold prices coinciding with a growing production profile enabled CYL to deliver record revenue (+43% pcp), EBITDA (+208%), EBIT (+402%) and NPAT (+15%).
Looking ahead to FY26, we assume continued production growth underpinned by Old Highway, Trident and K2 operations. Our growth forecasts remain consistent with CYL's initial 200kozpa plan. We maintain our previous elevated growth CAPEX assumptions, however, note that FY26 guidance has yet to be formally announced. Following sustained elevated gold prices and a surge past US$3,400/oz we increase our spot valuation scenario to US$3,250/oz (previously US$3,000/oz). We maintain our BUY rating, target price A$8.82ps (previously A$6.75ps). The increase being a function of our revised spot scenario.
IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL)
Finally, this language testing and student placement company had a tough time in FY 2025.
However, Morgans believes that a bottom has been reached for earnings and it could be onwards and upwards from here. Though, it continues to sit on the fence and has put a hold rating and $6.30 price target on its shares. It said:
IEL reported FY25 Adjusted EBIT of A$119.0m, down -48% (2H25 -67% on pcp), a challenged year given continued policy tightening across all destinations. IEL's 2H cash flow conversion was strong and the balance sheet position is sound. Earnings guidance assisted in providing market confidence that earnings have likely found a cyclical base. Cost-out of A$25m will be required to hit EBIT guidance of A$115-125m for FY26.
Volume pressure still exists; partially offset by price. FY27 sets up to be a potentially meaningful recovery year for IEL if volumes improve, with opex expected to remain relatively flat and direct China IELTs testing expected to have commenced. The UK's policy settings look like the final hurdle. IEL's earnings look to have found a base. Increasing confidence into the FY27 earnings recovery will be the key catalyst for a sustained further re-rating.
