BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) never fails to draw the spotlight on reporting day.
And last week was no exception as the 'big Aussie' unveiled its FY25 results on Tuesday.
As always, there was plenty to unpack from an eventful year for the ASX 200 miner.
But what did leading Australian investment house Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) make of the numbers?
Before finding out, let's first break down how the company fared in FY25.
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FY25 in focus for BHP Shares
The company's numbers weren't spectacular.
Revenue of US$51.26 billion dipped by 8% year-on-year as coal and iron ore prices dipped.
Underlying profit attributable to BHP shareholders also fell by 26%.
Underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) dropped by 10%, with net operating cash flow slipping by the same amount.
The group's underlying EBITDA margin of 53% also recorded a slight downtick.
In turn, underlying earnings per share (EPS) fell by 26% from twelve months prior.
Net debt at the end of June came in at US$12.9 billion – up from US$9.1 billion at the same time last year.
And the full-year dividend of US$1.10 per BHP share was 25% lower than in FY24.
So what?
Overall, BHP beat consensus expectations for some reporting metrics and fell short on others.
For instance, the company topped consensus estimates for underlying EBITDA as well as its FY25 dividend.
As a result, BHP shares lifted by 1.6% in Tuesday's trading to close out the day at $42.12 apiece.
The group's share price then rounded out the week slightly lower at $42.00 per share.
Macqaurie's take on BHP shares
Macquarie noted that FY25 revenue, EBITDA, and EPS were mostly as expected.
Meanwhile, BHP's operating cash flow and capital costs for the year beat the broker's projections.
The group's net debt position was 13% better than anticipated, with its dividend for the second half of FY25 also topping forecasts by 18%.
Elsewhere, Macquarie highlighted the company's record copper production in FY25.
However, it noted that BHP's coking coal collaboration with Mitsubishi – known as BMA – generated the group's lowest return on capital employed (ROCE).
It added that BMA could become a non-core asset for the company should performance fail to improve.
Macquarie also raised its concerns about cost inflation at the Jansen potash development project in Canada.
That said, BHP's cost guidance for FY26 surpassed the broker's forecasts across all key commodities.
Macquarie's final verdict
Macquarie maintained a neutral rating on BHP shares with a target price of $43.00 for the next twelve months.
This implies 2.3% upside from $42.00 per share at the close of business on Friday.
However, the broker still prefers BHP shares over fellow mining heavyweight Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO).
