Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are making headlines today following the company's third quarter sales results released yesterday.
The company reported a 4.5% lift in group sales to $18.1 billion for the third quarter, led by strong Australian Food sales up 5.9% and a 20.2% jump in eCommerce sales.
Additional results included:
- New Zealand Food sales up 1.4% (NZD), with a challenging retail environment
- W Living division (BIG W and Petstock) sales up 4.8%; Petstock grew 15.9%
- Group Net Promoter Score (VOC NPS) of 47, up 3 points on March 2025.
However, investors were seemingly left wanting more as Woolworths shares crashed 10% on Thursday.
At the time of writing, they have recovered just over 0.4% today.
The team at Morgans see upside potential following yesterday's strong sell-off.
Here's what the broker had to say.
Image source: Getty Images
Sales update mixed
Morgans said the 3Q26 sales trading update was mixed.
Strong sales growth was offset by softer FY26 earnings guidance for Australian Food and NZ Food, as management chose to absorb higher fuel costs and invest in pricing.
Management noted that value is becoming increasingly important, as customers become more cautious amid rising cost-of-living pressures.
We reduce group FY26-28F underlying EBIT marginally by 1%. Our target price remains unchanged at $37.30. With a 12-month forecast TSR of 12%, we upgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (from HOLD).
From today's share price of $34.52, this share price target from Morgans indicates an 8% upside.
Outlook mixed for Woolworths shares
Morgans noted that while absorbing higher costs and investing in pricing will weigh on margins in the near term, it believes this is the right strategy in the long-term as Woolworths works to improve its value perception with customers.
These are levers within management's control, and improving sales and volume momentum indicates the strategy is resonating. In an uncertain macro environment with soft consumer sentiment, WOW's dominant market position and relatively defensive characteristics should support steady and resilient earnings growth.
It's worth noting that not all brokers share the same outlook for Woolworths shares.
Bell Potter downgraded the supermarket company's shares to a hold (previously buy) following the sales results.
It also downgraded its share price target to $35.50 (previously $38.25).
The broker said food inflation looks to be returning which should be beneficial for the topline.
This looks largely offset by the margin impact of absorbing supply chain inflation, which is likely to be amplified in 4Q26e as a run rate into FY27e, where outcomes will be dependent on an easing in middle east tensions.
