When ASX shares fall, it can create a compelling opportunity for investors who are willing to have a contrarian and brave mindset.
It's important to keep in mind that an ASX share is not guaranteed to go up again just because it has fallen. Sometimes, shares fall and don't reach former peaks.
The two businesses I'll highlight in this article are materially below their 52-week highs, but I believe the conditions are there for them to deliver pleasing long-term returns, particularly at their current valuations.
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GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG)
GQG is a fund manager that's headquartered in the US, with clients in a number of countries. It offers investment strategies across US shares, global shares, global non-US shares, and emerging market shares.
As the chart below shows, the GQG share price is down more than 10% since 6 August 2025 and more than 30% from September 2024.
That's despite the ASX share's funds under management (FUM) – at 31 July 2025 – being significantly higher than they had been for most of the last 12 months. That means its share price-to-FUM ratio is probably the most attractive it has been over the last 18 months.
The GQG share price has dropped recently because the fund manager has revealed that its funds have underperformed the benchmark in the ultra-short term. There was also a net outflow of US$1.4 billion for the month of July, of which US$1 billion was related to a single institutional client.
GQG explained:
As an investment manager for our clients, we remain defensively positioned in our strategies in an effort to reduce risk within client portfolios. Sticking to our discipline, we are avoiding areas where we see extreme valuation and frothiness –in our view not dissimilar to the extremes of the dotcom era. As a result of this positioning, we continued to experience underperformance across all strategies as compared to their respective benchmarks year to date. As noted last month, we recognize that relative underperformance can be a headwind for future net flows and note, therefore, that the negative net flows experienced in July could persist.
Choosing to be more defensive could be a risky move if it doesn't work out for GQG in the medium term, but I think it's too soon to wipe off more than 10% of its market capitalisation, making this a good time to invest. The fund manager has demonstrated a long-term track record of outperforming, and I believe it can return to outperformance again, helping the net flows be inflows.
Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR)
Siteminder is an ASX tech share that provides software for hotel operations and revenue generation.
Despite the company's strong underlying growth, the Siteminder share price is still more than 20% lower than its 52-week low in October 2024, as the chart below shows.
As a software business, its costs don't rise at the same speed as other industries such as supermarkets or airlines. Therefore, as its revenue rises, its profit margins can increase. That's a compelling effect for a business rapidly growing revenue.
In the FY25 half-year result, Siteminder reported total revenue increased 13.9% to $104.5 million and annualised recurring revenue (ARR) improved 18.4%. This helped the company report a $6.5 million improvement in underlying operating profit (EBITDA) to $5.3 million.
The ASX share is targeting 30% organic annual revenue growth in the medium term, which would be a very strong driver for the Siteminder share price. Just lifting its growth rate to above 20% or even 25% would be very beneficial.
If the company continues winning new hotel customers and developing its software, I think the business could have a very good future.
