The price of gold has rocketed to an all-time high this week, surpassing the US$5,300 per ounce barrier in what is seen as a record-breaking rally. The latest uptick to a fresh high has well and truly put the spotlight on ASX gold shares.
What has caused the latest gold price rally?
According to Trading Economics, a combination of US dollar weakness, US interest rate expectations, heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing tariff threats has created a perfect storm for gold.
And investors have flooded into safe-haven assets as confidence weakens, sending gold prices soaring and lifting sentiment among ASX gold miners.
But not all ASX gold shares are equal. Some are a far better buy than others.
Here's one ASX gold stock I'd buy amid the gold price rally, and one I'd sell.
I'd buy Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares
The Newmont share price is up 1.63% today to $186.78 a piece. The latest uptick means the ASX gold stock is now 23.6% higher year-to-date and a huge 180.45% above its trading price this time last year.
As the world's largest gold miner, Newmont has a large portfolio of mines, including 11 mines and interests in two joint ventures in the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea.
It had about two decades of gold reserves, along with significant byproduct reserves at the end of December 2024. Newmont also produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts.
The miner's diversification and operational resilience make it a strong choice for those looking for gold exposure on the ASX.
Analysts are bullish on the outlook for the ASX gold stock, too. TradingView data shows 22 out of 28 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. The maximum target price is currently $232.81, which implies a potential 24.6% upside for investors at the time of writing.
I'd avoid Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares
Evolution Mining shares have fallen 0.2% today, to $15.32 a piece at the time of writing. For the year-to-date, the gold miner's shares have climbed 20.78% and they're also up a whopping 171.28% over the year.
Although the miner is riding the latest gold price rally, I'm not optimistic about its outlook. In fact, I think Evolution Mining's shares could halve in value in 2026. The main issue, I think, is that the window of opportunity to buy has passed.
Its share price gains have been incredible over the past 12 months, and its financial performance has been robust. But I'm concerned that the stock is now trading above fair value. I'm also wary that the ASX 200 gold miner is heavily reliant on higher-than-ever gold prices, and any pullback could send the shares tumbling.
It looks like analysts agree, too. TradingView data shows 8 out of 19 analysts have a sell or strong sell rating on the ASX gold shares. Another 8 have a hold rating. The average target price is $13.09, which implies a potential 14.66% downside at the time of writing. Although some think the shares could drop 53.75% to just $7.10 a piece over the next 12 months.
