CAR Group Ltd (ASX: CAR) shares have had a great week so far, rising by more than 5% following the company's release of its FY25 annual report. Experts from Macquarie have outlined what they think of the ASX share.
CAR Group is the parent business of Carsales.com.au, as well as vehicle portals in North America, Latin America and Asia.
The company's result for the 12 months to June 2025 showed reported revenue growth of 8% to $1.18 billion, operating profit (EBITDA) growth of 9% to $620 million and net profit growth of 10% to $275 million.
Let's take a look at what Macquarie thinks of the numbers and its projections for the upcoming financial year.
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Macquarie's view on the positives from the FY25 result
The broker noted that CAR Group has provided guidance of adjusted net profit growth of between 9% to 13% in FY26 – Macquarie thinks the lower end of that guidance is "likely conservative".
Macquarie pointed out that Australia makes up half of its earnings and this segment's EBITDA grew 9% to A$320 million, with margins expanding by 1 percentage point to 66%, which is a positive.
The broker is expecting further profit margin growth, with 1 percentage point of ongoing operating jaws moving forward. The expert also noted that it's focused on maintaining investment to ensure there is still a runway for future growth, such as customer-to-customer payments.
Macquarie also noted that in North America, with Trader Interactive, there are "early signs that the underlying non-auto market is beginning to recover" in FY26. CAR Group noted the RV segment, Trader Interactive's largest product exposure, is showing improvements. Pricing growth should remain stable at around 6% to 8% year-over-year, according to the broker, as well as growth in private volumes, premium products and media.
The final positive was how the company is implementing AI across the business for cost efficiencies and product innovations across the business.
Negatives
While owners of CAR Group shares would prefer no negatives at all, it's important to note a few negatives that were present for Macquarie.
Macquarie said the North American division will see profit margins contract in FY26. But, the broker supports this decision, calling it "sensible" as it invests for growth.
The experts also said there does not seem to be "any near-term shift in the revenue model within North America to move all verticals to leads, which drives higher revenues as opposed to subscriptions, albeit has significantly higher volatility given the link to listing volumes."
Macquarie also noted that the FY26 tax rate is expected to increase by between 2 to 3 percentage points compared to FY25 as carried forward tax losses were used in the US.
Finally, the broker said:
Within the Asian business, based in Korea, "guarantee" penetration stabilised at 59%, sequentially through FY25. However, management see a path to 70% penetration, driven by 1) launch of new features under a 'Guarantee 2.0' product and 2) rollout of a smaller branch format into rural areas.
Is the CAR Group share price a buy?
Macquarie currently has a neutral price target on the business, with a price target of $39. That means the broker is expecting the ASX tech share to be trading at the same valuation in 12 months from now.
The broker is forecasting that FY26 net profit excluding minorities could rise 11% year-over-year to A$417 million.
It also thinks earnings per share (EPS) could grow between 10% to 15% between FY25 to FY28, despite investments in growth initiatives. It suggested the valuation is fair when looking forward over the next 12 months unless growth accelerates.
Macquarie said Australia is mature, but high single digit growth is sustainable, supported by pricing and product innovation. The international businesses have "significant potential". AI can also be beneficial for the business with both revenue and efficiencies.
