3 compelling reasons to buy the rebound in Coles shares today

A leading analyst expects the rebound in Coles shares could have much further to run.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares are charging higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) supermarket giant closed yesterday trading for $22.61. During the Wednesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $23.09 apiece, up 2.1%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.3% at this same time.

Taking a step back, Coles shares have also strongly outpaced the benchmark index so far in 2026.

While the ASX 200 has dropped 1.1% year to date, Coles stock is up 8.3%.

And that doesn't include the fully-franked 41 cents per share dividend the company paid eligible stockholders on 30 March.

Adding in the 32 cents final dividend, paid on 22 September, and Coles trades on a 3.2% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

And looking ahead, Morgans' Damien Nguyen believes Coles is well-placed to keep outperforming over the coming months (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

Buy now written on a red key with a shopping trolley on an Apple keyboard.

Image source: Getty Images

Should I buy Coles shares today?

"The supermarket operator offers a resilient, non-discretionary earnings base," Nguyen said.

"Demand for consumer staples remains stable through economic cycles, and Coles benefits from pricing discipline across a duopolistic market structure," he added, citing the first reason he has a buy rating on Coles shares.

And, despite outperforming the ASX 200, Coles stock remains down more than 4% from last September's highs.

"Recent share price weakness, driven partly by broader cost-of-living and regulatory scrutiny concerns, has created a more attractive entry point for long term investors," Nguyen said.

Which brings us to the third reason you might want to buy the ASX 200 supermarket giant today.

Namely, passive income.

"The company also offers a solid dividend yield and improving operational leverage," Nguyen concluded.

What's been happening with the ASX 200 supermarket?

Coles shares closed up 3.7% on 1 May after the company reported its third-quarter (Q3 FY 2026) results, covering the 12 weeks from 5 January to 29 March.

Highlights from the quarter included a 3.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to $10.70 billion.

Coles' eCommerce division showed particularly strong growth, with eCommerce sales up 24.8% year on year to $1.33 billion.

"We delivered another strong sales result reflecting the strength of our customer offer and disciplined execution against our strategic priorities," CEO Leah Weckert said.

Weckert noted:

Achieving consistent sales momentum for the period over multiple years demonstrates our commitment to remaining focused on long term outcomes whilst successfully navigating short term volatility in market conditions and supply chains.

Looking at what could impact Coles shares in the months ahead, the company said it expects to maintain supermarket sales growth into the fourth quarter (Q4 FY 2026).

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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