If the second half of 2025 sees the gold price perform even close to as well as in the first half, it should usher in another six months of strong outperformance for ASX gold stocks.
In the first half of the calendar year, the yellow metal rocketed some 26% to trade for US$3,303 per ounce on 30 June.
As you'd expect, that's been a boon for most ASX gold miners.
Indeed, over the first six months of 2025, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) gained a whopping 36%.
Turning to some of the biggest ASX gold stocks, the Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price gained 22% in the first half. Meanwhile, Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares soared 61%, and the Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) share price gained 45%.
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What's been sending the gold price soaring?
As the World Gold Council (WGC) notes, the surging gold price saw the metal close out the first half of the year as one of the top-performing major asset classes.
Bullion recorded 26 new all-time highs in H1 2025, after having hit 40 new record highs in 2024.
The yellow metal enjoyed strong tailwinds from:
- A weaker US dollar
- Rangebound yields with expectations of future rate cuts
- Heightened geopolitical tensions – some of these directly or indirectly linked to US trade policy
According to the World Gold Council:
Trade-related and other geopolitical risks played a large role, not just directly, but by fuelling moves in the dollar, interest rates, and broader market volatility – all of which fed into gold's appeal as a safe-haven.
The WGC added that stronger demand driving the gold price higher also came from increased trading activity across OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs. This saw average gold trading volumes come in at US$329 billion per day in the first half of 2025. That's the highest half-year result on record.
While central bank gold buying pulled back some during H1, the WGC said central banks "continued buying at a robust pace".
What can ASX gold stock investors expect now?
In its Gold Mid-Year Outlook report, the WGC offered three potential outcomes for the gold price in the second half of 2025.
The WGC's base case is for continued normalisation in global financial and political conditions. Under this scenario, gold is expected to remain rangebound in H2, closing 0% to 5% higher than current levels of US$3,340 per ounce.
Under the report's bull case – which entrails further deterioration in economic and/or financial conditions, exacerbating stagflationary pressures and geoeconomic tensions – the WGC said that increased safe-haven demand could push gold 10% to 15% higher.
And in the bear case, which the report labelled as "unlikely", widespread and sustained conflict resolution could see the gold price retrace 12% to 17% from its year-to-date gains.
The World Gold Council concluded:
In all, given the intrinsic limitations of forecasting the global economy, we believe that gold – through its fundamentals – remains well positioned to support tactical and strategic investment decisions in the current macro landscape.
