The 2025 Macquarie Conference in Sydney last week saw 117 ASX stocks presenting over three days.
As you'd expect, that included a number of companies in the listed property space, including several Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs).
Following on the conference, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) said, "The real estate presentations and fireside chats that we hosted had an optimistic tone, with a focus on the resilience and growth potential of the Australian real estate market."
Macquarie noted that the presenters from these ASX stocks "also emphasised the defensive nature of the market".
The broker added:
This presents a favourable outlook for Australian commercial real estate, according to many of the groups we hosted. This is further reinforced by most groups reaffirming FY25 earnings/distribution guidance.
As for Macquarie's top picks in the sector, the broker said its "preferred A-REIT exposures are skewed to quality and growth at a reasonable price".
Those top ASX stock picks include:
- Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)
- National Storage REIT (ASX: NSR)
- Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)
- Qualitas Ltd (ASX: QAL)
- Dexus Industria REIT (ASX: DXI)
Here are some key takeaways from Macquarie's analysts.
These ASX stocks could benefit from falling interest rates
Macquarie noted that interest rate cuts from the RBA are expected to be a positive catalyst for sales volumes for ASX stocks including Mirvac.
The broker said Mirvac has "a fair way to go" before the company sees its residential sales volumes return to its long run average of 210 lots per month. That figure stood at 105 in FY 2024 but most recently climbed back to 155 lots per month.
According to Macquarie:
Hopefully the interest rate cycle will be a catalyst. Demand from capital continues to be in logistics and living. MGR is currently raising into its wholesale office fund and has been surprised by the level of capital demand for office in general.
As for top ASX stock pick Qualitas, Macquarie said, "QAL expects an increase in private credit investment in Australia, particularly from those who would have invested in the US."
The broker added:
Recent investor engagement has highlighted increased risk hurdles in the US, which has opened up a capital allocation gap. QAL is continuing to attract new investors, having just attracted a relatively large European investor into its income debt strategies, as well as a large Asian investor.
Turning to Dexus, Macquarie said, "Uncertainty is decreasing following challenges over the past five years. Investors are deploying capital now."
Macquarie noted:
DXS wants to move its ratio of third-party capital to balance sheet from 2.7x to 5.0x, which will drive an increase in funds contribution from 17% of FFO [funds from operations] to 25-30%. In 3Q25, DXS exchanged/settled ~$960m of transactions, the majority of which were transactions on behalf of a number of funds.
