This S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share continues to explore new depths.
During Tuesday trading, Lendlease Group Ltd (ASX: LLC) tumbled to an all-time low of $4.11. It managed to finish the day a bit higher at $4.20, bringing the loss for the year to 19%.
Now investors are asking: has this ASX 200 share finally bottomed or is there further to fall?
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From powerhouse to downfall
The ASX 200 real estate share dropped its half-year results for the six months to 31 December 2025 on Monday — and the market wasn't impressed. Lendlease posted a statutory net loss of $318 million, a sharp reversal that sent sentiment south.
Lendlease was once seen as a global force in urban regeneration, designing, building and managing landmark commercial and residential projects. Its stamp is on Sydney's Barangaroo and London's Elephant & Castle redevelopment.
But earnings downgrades, cost blowouts, project delays and higher interest rates have taken their toll. Over the past 12 months, Lendlease shares have fallen 33%. The ASX share is badly lagging the S&P/ASX 200 Index, which has climbed 8.8% over the same period.
Loss highlights reset
This latest loss reflects heavy investment property revaluations and impairments that dragged down the bottom line. Core operating profit after tax also slipped into the red, underscoring that the turnaround still has work to do.
That said, management has been busy reshaping the business — exiting international construction, simplifying operations and focusing on capital recycling. Leadership called the first half "transitional" and is pointed to stronger earnings in the second half and into FY27 as developments complete and capital is freed up.
Billions in the pipeline
Look past the headline loss and you'll find some green shoots. The Investments, Development and Construction (IDC) segment generated positive EBITDA, while the Australian construction business locked in $4 billion in new project work — a solid vote of confidence in its order book.
Lendlease also declared an interim distribution of 6.2 cents per share and cut net debt, sticking to its capital recycling playbook.
The board said it remains committed to returning surplus capital to securityholders, including through an on-market buyback. This will occur once there is more certainty that underlying gearing will be sustainably at 15%.
What next for Lendlease shares?
For investors, the question now is simple: can execution catch up with ambition?
At the time of writing, TradingView data shows analysts are split on Lendlease. Of the seven brokers covering the stock, four rate it a strong buy, two say hold, and one has a sell on the shares.
But here's the twist: even after the latest sell-off, every price target still points higher.
The average target price sits at $5.41, implying 28.7% upside over the next 12 months. If the most bullish $6.50 target proves accurate, investors could be pocketing a potential 55% gain from current levels of $4.20.
