5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Here's what to expect on the local market today.

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On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a tough session and dropped into the red. The benchmark index fell 0.6% to 8,198.1 points.

Will the market bounce back from this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

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ASX 200 expected to fall again

The Australian share market looks set to fall again on Wednesday following a mixed night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 21 points or 0.25% lower this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 0.8%, the S&P 500 is down 0.4%, but the Nasdaq is 0.4% higher.

Oil prices tumble

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a subdued session after oil prices edged lower overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.1% to US$68.30 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.7% to US$71.15 a barrel. Oil prices hit a six-month low on OPEC+ output increase and tariff concerns.

ASX 200 shares going ex-dividend

Another group of ASX 200 shares will be going ex-dividend on Wednesday and could trade lower. This includes supermarket operators Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), insurance juggernaut QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE), and wine giant Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE). The latter will be paying its shareholders a partially franked 20 cents per share at the start of next month on 2 April.

Gold price rises

It could be a decent session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.8% to US$2,924.6 an ounce. A softer US dollar gave the precious metal a boost.

QBE rated as a buy

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) shares are a buy according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. This morning, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating and $23.00 price target on the insurance giant's shares. It said: "Following the publication of our FY24 Result note, we update our cash EPS to reflect our previously published cash earnings forecasts. Our 2025E-27E cash EPS are revised to A$1.22/A$1.29/A$1.36 from A$1.16/A$1.22/A$1.27 previously. There is no change to our investment thesis, Buy rating or 12m TP of A$23.00."

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Treasury Wine Estates and Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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