S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold shares have certainly been shining bright amid the past year's surging gold price.
But not as bright as most commodity analysts would expect.
You've probably heard analysts say before that gold miners are leveraged to the gold price.
That's because a miner's fixed costs tend to remain just that. Fixed. Regardless of the price they receive for the yellow metal they dig from the ground.
Let's take Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) as an example.
For the September quarter, the ASX 200 gold share reported gold sales of 394,000 ounces at an all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of AU$2,082 per ounce (US$1,395 per ounce).
Now, let's say Northern Star receives US$1,800 per ounce for the gold it sells. At that price, the miner would be booking a profit of 29% on every ounce.
Now let's say the price it receives for its gold rises by 33% to US$2,400 per ounce. The profit Northern Star now books leaps to 72% per ounce or more than twice the rise in the gold price in this theoretical (and simplified) example.
With this in mind, here's what's been happening with the gold price and ASX 200 gold shares over the past 12 months.
ASX 200 gold shares missing out on the leverage effect
One year ago, on 9 January 2024, an ounce of bullion was fetching US$2,028. Today that same ounce is trading for US$2,660, up 31.2% in 12 months.
With our above example in mind, we'd then expect ASX 200 gold shares to have broadly gained significantly more than 31% over the year.
Here's how these top Aussie gold producers have fared since 9 January last year:
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 29%
- Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 5%
- Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares are up 33%
- Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares are up 27%
- Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 34%
- Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 50%
- Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) shares are up 29%
- Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) shares are up 34%
As we said up top, the Aussie gold stocks have certainly been shining bright this past year. But looking at the list above, only Perseus Mining shares have significantly exceeded the gains posted by the gold price.
Taking a broader look, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold shares – is up 26% over 12 months, lagging the 31% gains in the gold price.
But when the gold price falls, the opposite has been occurring.
Take a look at the stretch from 30 October to 14 November. Over the two weeks, the gold price declined by 8.0%. However, ASX gold producers fared much worse, with the All Ords Gold Index plunging 15.4% over this same period.
Which, according to the strategists at VanEck, could present investors with a buying opportunity for oversold gold miners.
A value opportunity in the waiting
According to VanEck, investors have been quick to sell ASX 200 gold shares when the gold price is falling and slow to buy the miners when the gold price is rising.
"We have been anecdotally making this observation, frustrated by the overly punitive impact this continues to have on the already oversold gold shares," VanEck strategists said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).
The strategists said:
We think this dichotomy represents a value opportunity for gold miners as they have been potentially oversold when the price of gold falls and under-bought when the gold price has been appreciating.
They may be among the few equities not priced to perfection.
With a number of prominent analysts, including JPMorgan and Citi, forecasting the gold price will hit US$3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, ASX 200 gold shares could have another bright year ahead.
