How this 'bullish kicker' could send the gold price rocketing to US$3,000 per ounce

Citi forecasts the gold price could gain more than 25% from recent all-time highs.

a woman in a business suit holds a large solid gold bar in both hands with a superimposed image of a gagged gold line tracking upwards and featuring a swooping curved arrow pointing upwards.

Image source: Getty Images

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The gold price has been on a tear in 2024, with the rally really picking up steam in mid-February.

On 15 February, the yellow metal was trading for US$1,992 per ounce, already near historic highs.

Then bullion took off for real, setting a series of new all-time highs over the past weeks.

On Tuesday, the gold price notched another new record high, topping US$2,384 per ounce. At the time of writing, that same ounce is worth US$2,375, up more than 19% since 15 February.

As you'd expect that's been excellent news for shareholders in ASX gold miners.

Since the closing bell on 15 February, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) has gained a whopping 24%, smashing the 1% gains posted by the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) over this same time.

Of course, those golden days are behind us now.

As for what ASX investors can expect from the gold price in the year ahead, we turn to the experts at Citi (courtesy of The Australian).

What now for the gold price?

Retail buyers and central bank purchases have been driving increased demand for gold as the metal's haven status has been shining brightly amid rising global tensions and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bullion, which pays no yield itself, has also gotten a lift from prospects of central bank easing in 2024.

While a resilient US economy and some sticky inflation in the world's top economy may delay the first interest rate cut from the US Fed longer than hoped, Citi has still upgraded its forecast for the gold price to its "bull-case scenario".

Citi sees the yellow metal trading for an average price of US$2,350 in 2024, rising to US$2,875 per ounce in 2025.

"While prospects of a May/June bullion price pullback have increased, in our view, we expect strong buying support at US$2,200 per ounce," Citi commodity strategist Aakah Doshi said.

Doshi pointed out that the gold price gained over the past weeks despite rising Treasury yields and a stronger greenback amid a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

"Financial gold demand seems to be playing catch-up with robust physical," Doshi said.

And he noted that US$3,000 per ounce could well be on the horizon.

"Even as the implied 'duration' of gold has shortened since June 2021, an eventual Fed cutting cycle and Treasury rally could be the bullish kicker to $3,000 per ounce."

How have the big Aussie gold stocks been tracking?

As you'd expect, a fast-rising gold price has been good news for S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold shares.

Though, as you can see from their performance below, their share prices are impacted by far more than just the price of the yellow metal they dig from the ground.

Here's how these leading ASX 200 gold shares have performed over the past month, a month that's seen the ASX 200 dip 0.6%:

  • Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 12.2%
  • Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 17.4%
  • De Grey Mining Ltd (ASX: DEG) shares are up 10.3%
  • Ramelius Resources Ltd(ASX: RMS) shares are up 26.4%
  • Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares are up 4.7%
  • Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 19.7%
  • Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are up 13.8%

As always, whether you're investing in gold stocks or any other ASX shares, make sure to do your own research first. Or simply reach out for some expert advice.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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