S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks have been enjoying some heady tailwinds from a soaring gold price.
Indeed, it seems the yellow metal is notching new record highs almost daily lately.
After trading at recent lows of US$1,820 per ounce on 5 October, gold rebounded to US$2,059 per ounce by 2 January.
And it kept on going.
At time of writing bullion is fetching US$2,344 per ounce, having hit US$2,347 per ounce just a few hours ago.
The gold price, and gold shares, really took off on 28 February, when gold was worth US$2,034 per ounce.
This has seen the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller gold miners outside of the ASX 200 gold stocks – rocket 25.6% since the closing bell on 28 February.
For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 2.2% over that same period.
Here's how these top ASX 200 gold stocks have performed since 28 February:
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares have gained 20.0%
- Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares have gained 30.9%
- De Grey Mining Ltd (ASX: DEG) shares have gained 5.8%
- Ramelius Resources Ltd(ASX: RMS) shares have gained 40.7%
- Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares have gained 19.2%
- Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares have gained 35.9%
- Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares have gained 32.2%
Take that, inflation!
With the big Aussie gold producers clearly enjoying the rocketing gold price, what can investors expect next?
ASX 200 gold stocks could see gold charge far higher
A range of factors have aligned to send global gold prices to a series of all-time highs.
While my crystal ball is no more functional than any other, it looks like these tailwinds could continue blowing for ASX 200 gold stocks for some time yet.
First, we have the growing prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Fed, the RBA, and numerous other influential central banks.
Gold, which pays no interest itself, tends to perform better in a low or falling rate environment.
Second, we have gold's classic safe haven status, which has come to the fore amid rising geopolitical conflicts across much of the globe.
"The sabre-rattling from Putin, conflict in Ukraine and Gaza, all of that adds to the background noise. The mood music is bullish for gold now from the safe haven perspective," Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault said (quoted by Bloomberg).
Third, we have ongoing strong central bank bullion purchases, supporting overall demand.
The fourth factor sending the gold price higher and supporting ASX 200 gold stocks is strong consumer demand from China, where people are concerned over the nation's currency outlook, alongside its shaky property and stock markets.
"The gold market hasn't been driven by western investors. China, so far this year and through last year has been the engine behind gold prices," Bernard Dahdah, a commodity analyst at Natixis noted.
Finally, gold also appears to be gaining support from investors concerned that the Fed and US government may not be able to engineer the so-called soft landing for the world's biggest economy.
According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank (courtesy of Bloomberg):
The rally is defying a lot of normal thinking, especially when it comes to still-elevated rates. I think the narrative is changing towards sticky inflation and perhaps a hard landing, spiced with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty and de-globalisation driving central bank demand.
Although the gold price is at all-time nominal highs, the yellow metal has a way to go before reaching new records in real (inflation adjusted) terms.
That record was set more than 44 years ago, in January 1980 when gold was trading for US$850 per ounce, or some US$3,000 in 2024 terms.
As always, whether you're looking at buying ASX 200 gold stocks or any other shares, make sure to do your own research first. Or simply reach out for some expert advice.
