BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is the biggest business in Australia, with a market capitalisation of $223 billion. I think, one day, it might not be the biggest S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share, depending on how things go.
For starters, the company's profit and valuation are heavily influenced by commodities. It's possible that BHP's market cap could decline further if the iron ore price or copper price falls heavily.
It's possible that the emergence of large iron mines in Africa could push down on the iron ore price.
Of course, the BHP share price could keep rising and it's possible that no ASX 200 share can catch up.
But, if things go well, I believe that at least one (and perhaps all) of the below ASX 200 shares could become larger than BHP.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
Commonwealth Bank has a market capitalisation of $195 billion according to the ASX. It only needs to rise by 15% to become larger than BHP, or a mixture of CBA rising and BHP falling.
The ASX 200 share has grown its loan book over time, which is increasing the company's profit potential.
It's making a concerted push into business lending, where its market share isn't as strong as lending to households. I think this could be the driver of the CBA share price in the shorter term if it is to somehow become bigger than BHP in the next couple of years.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)
Macquarie has a market capitalisation of $75 billion according to the ASX. This is a lot smaller than BHP, but I think it has demonstrated a good compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of earnings over the past several years to get to where it is today.
Over the last 10 years, the Macquarie share price has risen by roughly 240%. In the first half of FY14, it made A$1.50 of earnings per share (EPS), in the FY24 first half result it made $3.66 of EPS and in HY23 it made $5.85 of EPS.
HY23's EPS was 290% higher than HY14 and HY24's EPS was 140% more.
Over time, Macquarie is building its business to generate more profit and justify a higher share price.
I think the ASX 200 share can continue to scale its divisions – particularly banking and financial services (BFS) in Australia – which can lead to growing earnings and a rising Macquarie share price.
While it will likely take many years, I think if it can continue to grow globally, it can eventually overtake BHP.
Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)
Wesfarmers has a market capitalisation of $75.6 billion, so it's also currently a fraction of the size of BHP.
The company is responsible for retailers like Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks, Priceline, Catch, Target and a number of chemical, energy, fertiliser and industrial businesses.
In the past five years, the Wesfarmers share price has risen by around 90%. The divestment of Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) near the end of 2018 makes it challenging to compare Wesfarmers now to Wesfarmers in 2017 and further back.
The ASX 200 share has done a great job of growing the Bunnings and Kmart businesses, expanding the product ranges and growing digital sales.
Wesfarmers continues to make helpful bolt-on acquisitions, such as InstantScripts, Silk Laser Australia and Beaumont Tiles, which expand the capabilities and growth potential of its existing segments.
The business is expanding into lithium mining and lithium processing, which will add another earnings stream for Wesfarmers and diversify profit more.
As Australia's population keeps growing, this increases the potential customer base for its various companies.
I believe in the company's long-term potential to keep growing and buying businesses that can help growth of the Wesfarmers share price over the long term.
