It's been a great 12 months to own S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks.
And there could be more outperformance to come.
Over the last 12 months, the ASX 200 is up a very healthy 9%.
But gold shares have, as a whole, left those gains in the dust.
Since this time last year, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks – has soared 39%.
See what I mean?
Drilling down to some of the top names, here's what they've returned to investors over 12 months, not including dividends:
- The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price is up 58%
- The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price is up 52%
- The Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) share price is up 30%
- The Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) share price is up 46%
ASX 200 gold stocks have received some heady tailwinds over the year amid a rising gold price.
One year ago, the yellow metal was trading for US$1,717 per ounce. Today that same ounce is worth US$1,978.
As you can see, that 12% rise in the gold price has delivered far more in share price gains for these big producers. That's because their costs remain fixed regardless of the price of the precious metal they dig from the ground. So, any gains in the gold price tend to go straight to the bottom line.
With that in mind…
Why ASX 200 gold stocks could keep shining bright into 2024
Forecasting a likely recession in the United States and subsequent easing from the Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase believes the gold price will enter record territory next year.
As The Australian Financial Review reports, the bank says that falling interest rates in the world's top economy, which it forecasts for the second quarter of 2024, will be a "significant driver" for bullion prices.
JP Morgan Chase has an average price target of US$2,175 per ounce for the fourth quarter of 2024. That's 10% above the current price, which would come as welcome news for ASX 200 gold stocks.
According to Greg Shearer, executive director of global commodities research:
We're in a very prime place where we think gold ownership and long allocation to gold and silver is something that acts as both a late cycle diversifier and something that will perform as we look to the next sort of 12, 18 months.
Shearer also pointed to recent surges in central bank bullion purchases amid rising geopolitical tensions as likely to continue supporting the gold price, and by connection ASX 200 gold stocks.
"There's an eagerness here to really buy in and diversify allocation away from currencies," he said.
Indeed, central banks added 228 tonnes of bullion to their reserves in the first quarter of 2023, representing a new record.
"Against the backdrop of turmoil in the banking sector, ongoing geopolitical tensions and a challenging economic environment, gold's role as a safe haven asset has come to the fore," said Louise Street, senior markets analyst at the World Gold Council, said earlier this year.
