I think the market is wrong about this beaten-up ASX 200 share

I'd back this business for good returns over its competitors.

Key points
  • Metcash shares have fallen 15% over the past year, yet its peers have performed much strongly
  • It’s trading on a much cheaper P/E ratio and it has a higher dividend yield
  • On top of that, in the early part of the second half it was still delivering sales growth

In my opinion, the market is being harsh on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS).

Metcash may not exactly be a household name, even though many of the businesses that it's involved with are very recognisable.

There are three pillars to the business: food, drink and hardware.

Metcash's food division supplies IGA and Foodland stores around the country. The liquor segment supplies a number of brands including Cellarbrations, The Bottle-O, IGA Liquor, Thirsty Camel, Big Bargain Bottleshop, Duncans and Porters Liquor.

The hardware division owns a few different brands including Home Timber & Hardware, Mitre 10, Hardings and Total Tools. It also supports independent operators under the small format convenience banners Thrifty-Link Hardware and True Value Hardware.

A man in a business suit wearing boxing gloves slumps in the corner of a boxing ring representing the beaten-up Zip share price in recent times

Image source: Getty Images

Is the market being harsh on the ASX 200 share?

I think we can compare the Metcash business somewhat to names like Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW).

Over the past year, Wesfarmers shares are up 7%, Woolworths shares are up 0.33% and Coles shares are down 2%.

Yet, the Metcash share price is down 15%.

Looking at the Metcash share price, it could be considered the cheapest one. According to Commsec numbers, it's valued at under 13 times FY23's estimated earnings.

Let's compare that to the valuations of its peers. Wesfarmers is priced at over 24 times FY23's estimated earnings, Woolworths is priced at 28 times FY23's estimated earnings and Coles is priced at under 23 times FY23's estimated earnings.

On these numbers alone, the ASX 200 share looks significantly undervalued.

But I think there are a few key reasons why investors should back the business as an investment option.

Why Metcash shares look undervalued

The low price/earnings (P/E) ratio that I just noted also means that it has a relatively high dividend yield, helped by its dividend payout ratio of 70% of underlying net profit after tax (NPAT).

In FY23, the ASX 200 share could pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.9%. That's a stronger dividend yield than what its peers may pay.

On top of that, the business reported ongoing growth in the first four weeks of FY23, which I think is impressive. Food sales had grown by 4%, hardware sales had grown by 8% and liquor sales had grown by 8.9%.

Sales growth is a very useful boost for growing earnings, plus increased scale gives it a good chance of benefiting from scale benefits.

The business is investing in a number of areas including "loyalty, digital, e-commerce, data, network optimisation and development" according to Metcash CEO Doug Jones.

Metcash has also commented that there is an increased preference by customers for local neighbourhood shopping. Jones said that shoppers are recognising "the increased competitiveness, differentiated offer and relevance" of its network of independent stores.

I think Metcash shares are significantly underrated by the market and trade at a much cheaper valuation than the supermarket giants.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Metcash. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Opinions

a man in a hoodie grins slyly as he sits with his hands poised on a keyboard. He is superimposed with a graphic image of a computer screen asking for a password, suggesting he is a hacker.
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

25% per annum: Is the BetaShares Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) a buy today?

Will this ETF keep banging out stunning returns?

Read more »

Watering can pouring water on increasing piles of coins with green plants on them and a piggy bank and coins on the table.
Opinions

$3,000 buys 1,463 shares in an impressively reliable ASX dividend stock

Here’s what makes this stock one of the best picks for dividends, in my view.

Read more »

A man thinks very carefully about his money and investments.
How to invest

Cash rate at 4.6%: Here's how I'm investing in ASX shares

Interest rate hikes cut both ways.

Read more »

Man on a ladder drawing an increasing line on a chalk board, symbolising a rising share price.
Opinions

Is WiseTech the most undervalued growth stock on the ASX 200?

Has the sell-off gone too far?

Read more »

Signs of asset classes on a newspaper which says 'Where to invest your money?'.
Opinions

Where I'd invest in ASX shares after the recent RBA rate rise

These investments now look very good value to me.

Read more »

A female runner climbs a set of stairs, running with strength and pace.
Opinions

Can the Xero share price climb back to $100?

Could Xero shares finally be ready for a comeback?

Read more »

A man rests his chin in his hands, pondering what is the answer?
Opinions

This ASX dividend share is near a 52-week low. Would I buy?

Is this beaten-down ASX dividend share worth buying today?

Read more »

A panel of four judges hold up cards all showing the perfect score of ten out of ten
Dividend Investing

Is this the ASX's perfect dividend stock?

This stock offers what no others can...

Read more »