Multiple ASX coal shares are struggling today. Three ASX coal shares are Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC), Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) and New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC).
Yancoal is 4.7% in the red today while New Hope is descending 2.3%. Meanwhile, Whitehaven Coal is climbing 0.73% For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.4% today.
Let's take a look at what might be impacting ASX coal shares today.
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Coal export outlook 'bleak'
Australian National University researchers published a study today predicting a "bleak" outlook for coal exports from Australia.
Modelling by the researchers found China thermal imports could fall by at least 26%, from 210 megaton to 155 megaton annually between 2019 and 2025.
Commenting on the report, lead author Dr Jorrit Gosens said:
Our findings are clear: Beijing's plans for rapid decarbonisation and energy security signal the end for Australia's current coal export boom.
And this isn't going to happen far off into the future; it is imminent.
Fund manager Alex Turnbull and ANU climate change economics professor Frank Jotzo were also co-authors on the report.
Meanwhile, Yancoal released quarterly results to the market after close yesterday.
Total saleable coal production fell 13% on the previous quarter to 8.1 million tonnes (Mt). Sales volume also fell 21% to 7.8 Mt. However, the average realised price of coal surged 23% to $258 per tonne. Yancoal attributed this fall in production to the impact of COVID-19 on labour.
Commenting on the coal prices, CEO David Moult said:
Our average realised coal price for 1Q 2022 comprised a thermal coal average realised price of A$243/tonne and a metallurgical coal average realised price of A$349/tonne; both were close to three times the prices achieved just 12 months ago.
Share price summary
The Whitehaven share price has surged 233% in a year, while Yancoal has risen 121%. Meanwhile, New Hope shares have rocketed 164%.
In contrast, the benchmark ASX 200 has increased about 8% in the past year.
