Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to edge slightly lower on Friday despite a decent night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 12 points or 0.15% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.25%, the S&P 500 rose 0.25% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.35%.

Oil prices rise

It could be a good finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2.1% to US$93.19 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.7% to US$89.65 a barrel. This was driven by concerns over Iran-US peace talks and the Strait of Hormuz.

Zip results

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares will be on watch today when the buy now pay later provider releases its eagerly anticipated third-quarter update. According to a note out of Citi, its analysts are expecting Zip to announce an improved US net transaction margin despite rising bad debts as a percentage of total transaction value.

Gold price edges lower

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a subdued finish to the week after the gold price edged lower overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.25% to US$4,810.9 an ounce. Inflation and rate hike fears continue to weigh on the precious metal.

Buy Netwealth shares

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares could be good value according to Bell Potter. In response to the investment platform provider's quarterly update, the broker has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on its shares. It said: "Following the update, we have downgraded our EPS estimates -1% contained within FY27 and driven by steadier average FUA balances and take-rates. Our Buy rating is unchanged. NWL has de-rated to trade on 28x forward EBITDA consistent with prior risk off environments and compares to 33x through-the-cycle. We would expect the earnings catalysts and sentiment exposure to drive enhanced shareholder returns."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

The Boss Energy share price is down 11% to $1.54. Investors have been selling the uranium producer's shares after it downgraded its guidance. Boss Energy now expects FY 2026 production for the Honeymoon operation to be between 1.40 million and 1.45 million pounds of U3O8. This is down from previous guidance of 1.6 million pounds. The company's managing director, Matthew Dusci, said: "We recognise this downgrade is disappointing, particularly after maintaining guidance as recently as March. At that time, our expectation was that site access and reagent deliveries would normalise during the month. Subsequent unexpected rainfall, combined with the degraded baseline condition of access roads, extended disruption materially beyond that assumption. This has impacted both production and the timing of commissioning critical infrastructure during ramp-up."

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

The Telix Pharmaceuticals share price is down 6% to $14.50. This has been driven by news that the radiopharmaceuticals company is raising US$600 million through a convertible bonds offering. The bonds are expected to carry a relatively low coupon of between 1.50% and 1.75% and will be issued with a conversion price of US$13.85 (~A$19.55). This is a premium of approximately 37.5% to the current share price. Telix's managing director and group CEO, Dr. Christian Behrenbruch, said: "The successful completion of the convertible bonds refinance is in line with our capital management strategy and provides financial flexibility for Telix. We are pleased with the support we have received from both existing and new investors as part of the concurrent repurchase and new issue of convertible bonds."

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside Energy share price is down 2.5% to $33.13. Investors have been selling the energy producer's shares today in response to reports that the US and Iran have re-entered peace talks. This caused oil prices to tumble overnight. It isn't just Woodside shares that are falling. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy index is down 2% at the time of writing.

Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)

The Yancoal Australia share price is down 2.5% to $7.06. This is despite the coal miner announcing a major acquisition today. Yancoal revealed that it has agreed to acquire an 80% interest in the Kestrel coal mine in Queensland's Bowen Basin for up to US$2.4 billion. This includes an upfront payment of US$1.85 billion, as well as contingent payments of up to US$550 million that are linked to future coal prices.

The post Why Boss Energy, Telix, Woodside, and Yancoal shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Despite closing the day in the red, the oil and gas producer's shares are up 7.4% for the month and 71.08% higher than just one year ago.

Woodside shares have rallied 43.5% higher for the year to date, with the most significant increase seen after the conflict between the US and Iran escalated in late February. 

Rising oil prices have acted as a strong tailwind for the oil and gas giant's shares over the past six weeks. Conflict in the Middle East has threatened the movement of oil in the region, while shipping disruptions and production cuts caused prices to skyrocket to a multi-year high. While the price of oil has now softened, it's still significantly higher than in late February. 

So, if I bought $10,000 worth of Woodside shares at the start of 2026, what are they worth now?

Woodside shares were trading at $23.66 a piece on the first day of trading in January. The 43.5% increase in the trading price at the time of writing means that $10,000 worth of shares bought on the 2nd of January is now worth a huge $14,350.

Meanwhile, any investor who bought $10,000 worth of Woodside shares 12 months ago would now be sitting on $17,108!

Can Woodside shares keep climbing higher?

I think there is great potential for another share price rally this year.

Global oil supply concerns arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are acting as a significant tailwind for Woodside shares. Peace talks between the US and Iran ended early Sunday morning in Islamabad, Pakistan, without a deal to end the war, sparking concerns that the two nations could be a long way away from a ceasefire agreement.

Meanwhile, Woodside has robust financials and reported a strong 2025 result in late February, suggesting that the company is well-positioned for continued growth.

The announcement confirmed an all-time high full-year production of 198.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), topping guidance. Its costs fell 4% for the calendar year, and while revenue dropped 1%, its EBITDA was in line with 2024. 

What do analysts think of the stock?

I think Woodside shares are a screaming buy right now, but analysts are a little more reserved. 

TradingView data shows that seven out of 14 brokers have a hold rating on the stock, while another five have a buy or strong buy rating on Woodside shares. Another two brokers have a sell or strong sell rating.

The average target price is $32.93, which implies a potential 3.04% downside at the time of writing. However, others are more bullish and think the shares could jump 26.8% to $43.05 over the next 12 months. 

The post $10,000 invested in Woodside shares at the beginning of 2026 is already worth a whopping…. appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

CBA shares closed Monday trading for $183.20 each, while Woodside stock ended the day changing hands for $34.15 a share.

This sees the CBA share price up 16.47% over 12 months, while Woodside shares have gained a whopping 72.04%.

For some context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 15.20% over this same period.

And the above outperformance doesn't include the two fully-franked dividends CBA and Woodside both paid out over the full year.

Woodside trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 4.8%, while CBA shares trade on a fully-franked yield of 2.7%.

But after their recent strong runs, Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards believes now could be an opportune time for stockholders to take some profits off the table (courtesy of The Bull).

Have Woodside shares burned too bright?

"This energy giant has historically struggled to consistently meet market expectations," said Richards, who has a sell recommendation on Woodside shares. "While the current commodity environment has supported its share price, we see this as an opportunity to exit."

Among potential looming headwinds for the ASX 200 energy stock, Richards noted, "Capital intensity, project execution risk and long dated development timelines remain my concerns."

Richards concluded:

Investors may want to consider taking advantage of its recent valuation and improved sentiment. The shares rose from $23.59 on January 9 to $35.80 on April 7. The shares were trading at $33.37 on April 9. The shares are also responding to volatile crude oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict.

Which brings us to…

Are CBA shares looking pricey?

Atop Woodside shares, Richards also recommends investors consider selling CBA shares.

"The CBA remains a high-quality banking operation, but its valuation is increasingly difficult to justify," he said. "The stock trades at a significant premium to global peers despite a mature domestic banking market and limited growth potential, in my view."

CBA trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just under 30 times.

Summarising his sell recommendation on CBA shares, Richards concluded:

While earnings remain stable, we see better value elsewhere in the sector. We believe the current share price leaves little margin for error, supporting a sell recommendation on valuation grounds. The shares have risen from $158.74 on February 10 to trade at $181.65 on April 9.

The post Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on CBA and Woodside shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back today are listed below. Here's why they are rising:

Monash IVF Group Ltd (ASX: MVF)

The Monash IVF share price is up 14% to 75.7 cents. This morning, the fertility treatment company revealed that it has received a new non-binding takeover proposal from a consortium that includes Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL). The consortium had previously offered 80 cents per share. This has now been increased to 90 cents per share and "represents the highest amount the Consortium is prepared to offer as its Offer Price, absent a competing proposal emerging for all or a material part of Monash IVF." The company advised that its board is assessing the proposal, including obtaining advice from its financial and legal advisers.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

The Pro Medicus share price is up 5% to $133.14. This morning, the health imaging technology company announced that it has signed a five-year contract renewal with Northwestern Medicine. Importantly, the $37 million contract has increased minimums and an increased fee per transaction. Commenting on the deal, Pro Medicus' CEO, Dr Hupert, said: "We are extremely pleased that in addition to committing to a second five-year term at an increased fee per exam, NM have also committed to an increase in their minimums reflecting the growth in their exam volumes since standardising on our platform five years ago."

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

The Telix Pharmaceuticals share price is up 8% to $15.87. Investors have been buying the radiopharmaceuticals company's shares after it announced a major collaboration with US-based Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN). The company notes that there is potential to earn up to US$2.1 billion in development and commercial milestone payments plus low double-digit royalties if Telix opts out of co-funding any program. Telix's managing director and CEO, Christian Behrenbruch, said: "The collaboration with Regeneron reflects a highly complementary set of capabilities and a unique opportunity to explore what true 'next gen' biologics-based radiopharmaceuticals can potentially do for patients."

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside Energy share price is up almost 3% to $34.19. This energy giant's shares are rising today after oil prices jumped above US$100 a barrel. The catalyst for the jump was news that US President Donald Trump is threatening to blockade Iranian ports after initial peace talks between the two countries failed.

The post Why Monash IVF, Pro Medicus, Telix, and Woodside shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In late morning trade on Monday, the ASX 200 is down 0.4%, while the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) is up 2.8%.

Here's how these leading Australian oil and gas producers are tracking at this same time:

• Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are up 3.6%
• Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are up 2.7%
• Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares are up 5.6%
• Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) shares are up 6.0%

Now, here's why investors are flocking to the energy sector today.

ASX 200 energy stocks lift off on unsuccessful peace talks

Aussie investors went into the weekend with hopes, albeit faint ones, that peace talks between the US and Iran might lead to a rapid end to the war.

By market open this morning, investors knew that those talks had failed to reach an agreement. Investors also learned that a disappointed President Donald Trump said the US will now implement a blockade on all ships using Iranian ports. That blockade will reportedly commence on Monday night Aussie time.

With the potential loss of some two million barrels a day of Iranian oil that had still be passing through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil and gas prices rocketed on the news, offering a boost to ASX 200 energy stocks like Santos and Woodside shares today.

Brent crude oil is up 7.7% overnight, currently trading back at US$102.54 per barrel.

What are the experts saying?

Commenting on the expected US blockade on vessels using Iranian ports, Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said (quoted by Bloomberg):

It strikes me that that is quite an ambitious endeavour, and it doesn't solve the problem of disruption… Experience suggests that the Iranians will not concede but will respond in kind.

Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, noted that investors may have been overly optimistic heading into the peace talks, which is pressuring the broader market today while lifting ASX 200 energy stocks.

"The market got ahead of itself on de-escalation," Khurshid said.

Prior to the blockade announcement, Dionissios Kontos, co-founder of Meyka AI, sounded a moderately positive note.

"The nuance is worth watching," Kontos said. "Iran's foreign ministry left the door open for further talks, so this isn't a full collapse, just prolonged uncertainty."

How have these ASX 200 energy stocks been tracking?

With the overnight surge in global energy prices, the Brent crude oil price is up 68.5% in 2026.

Here's how the above four ASX 200 energy stocks have performed year to date (compared to a 2.4% gain posted by the benchmark index):

• Woodside shares are up 45.7%
• Santos shares are up 31.8%
• Beach Energy shares are up 9.6%
• Karoon Energy shares are up 35.6%

The post How ASX 200 energy stocks like Woodside and Santos are surging in Monday's sinking market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's see what Shaw and Partners is saying about three big names, courtesy of The Bull.

Are they buys, holds, or sells this week? Let's find out:

AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL)

Shaw and Partners currently rates this energy giant as a hold.

While there are positives, it has concerns over the challenges that AGL Energy faces with respect to asset transitions and evolving policy settings. It explains:

AGL provides exposure to Australia's energy sector during a period of structural change. The company benefits from its scale and essential service positioning, but faces ongoing challenges as it navigates asset transitions and evolving policy settings. Earnings stability has improved, yet execution risk still remains. In our view, AGL warrants a hold rating, balancing its strategic importance against longer term capital requirements.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

Shaw and Partners is far more positive on rival Origin Energy. This week, the broker has put a buy rating on its shares.

It likes the company due to its attractive income profile and exposure to the domestic energy transition. However, it warns that an investment is not without risk. Shaw and Partners said:

Origin combines an attractive income profile with leveraged exposure to Australia's evolving energy market. The company benefits from scale in electricity generation and retailing, while its yield remains appealing in a market still sensitive to income certainty. That said, regulatory risk and energy price volatility remain key risks. We see Origin as well placed to balance defensive income characteristics with longer term opportunities tied to the domestic energy transition.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Finally, Shaw and Partners rates Woodside shares as a sell this week.

The broker believes investors should be taking advantage of a strong rise in its share price to sell at current levels. It explains:

This energy giant has historically struggled to consistently meet market expectations. While the current commodity environment has supported its share price, we see this as an opportunity to exit. Capital intensity, project execution risk and long dated development timelines remain my concerns.

Investors may want to consider taking advantage of its recent valuation and improved sentiment. The shares rose from $23.59 on January 9 to $35.80 on April 7. The shares were trading at $33.37 on April 9. The shares are also responding to volatile crude oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict.

The post Buy, hold, sell: AGL, Origin Energy, and Woodside shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

There are some businesses that may well see their earnings increase because of the flow-on effects of the inflation. Even excluding these shorter-term effects, both of the businesses I'm going to talk about have an attractive long-term future, according to experts.

Experts from the fund manager Wilson Asset Management have picked out two leading ASX 200 blue-chip shares worth owning that are in the WAM Leaders Ltd (ASX: WLE) portfolio, which is a listed investment company (LIC) that targets the "highest quality Australian companies".

Let's take a look at what the experts like about the two businesses and what they're seeing right now.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside share price rose in March as it benefited from the higher oil and LNG prices amid the events in the Middle East and the disruption to the shipping flows in the Strait of Hormuz.

WAM notes that Woodside has no operations in the affected area, leaving it well positioned to benefit from the supply shock.

Last month, the ASX energy share also confirmed the permanent appointment of Liz Westcott as managing director and CEO, who reaffirmed the growth strategy, with a focus on project execution and shareholder value creation.

On top of that, an investor site visit to the Louisiana LNG project affirmed that the development remains "on schedule and on budget", with de-bottlenecking opportunities identified.

The fund manager concluded its thoughts on the ASX 200 blue-chip share:

The company continues to be a key holding in the WAM Leaders investment portfolio with its geographical diversification and pipeline of growth projections positioning the company well in the current environment.

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD)

The other business that WAM Leaders highlighted is Ampol, which also saw its share price rise during March following higher oil prices and "materially stronger refining margins following the disruption to Middle Eastern oil supply".

Refining economics are, according to WAM, "highly sensitive to margin movement", therefore the near-term refining environment is "expected to improve as global supply tightens and as China restricts diesel and gasoline export contracts from major state refiners".

The fund manager also noted that the Australian Government has lifted the fuel security services payment thresholds, providing greater downside protection for the ASX 200 blue chip's refining business through the cycle.

The ACCC's phase 2 review of Ampol's proposed acquisition of EG Australia's fuel and convenience retail network also progressed, with sites under review narrowing from 115 to 54. A determination is due by 5 June 2026.

The post 2 ASX 200 blue-chip shares worth owning in April 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to jump

The Australian share market looks set for a strong start to the week despite a mixed finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 70 points or 0.75% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 0.55%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.35%.

Oil prices ease

It could be a subdued start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices eased on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 1.23% to US$96.57 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was down 0.75% to US$112.57 a barrel. This may have been driven by optimism over peace talks between the US and Iran.

Dividends being paid

A couple more ASX 200 shares will be rewarding their shareholders with dividend payments on Monday. This includes hearing solutions company Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) and auto listings giant CAR Group Limited (ASX: CAR). They will be paying partially franked dividends of $2.15 per share and 42.5 cents per share, respectively, later today.

Gold price slides

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a soft start to the week after the gold price fell on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was down 0.65% to US$4,787.4 an ounce. This may also have been driven by news of peace talks between the US and Iran.

Hold Orora shares

Morgans isn't a buyer of Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA) shares despite their heavy decline last week. The broker has retained its hold rating with a heavily reduced price target of $1.55 (from $2.30). It prefers fellow packaging company Amcor (ASX: AMC) and has a buy rating and $76.00 price target on its shares. It said: "Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, visibility on the timing of a potential restart at the RAK facility remains limited. In addition, global consumer confidence and spirits demand have already been negatively affected by the conflict and may remain subdued for some time, even in the event of a near-term resolution. Given this uncertainty, we believe it is prudent to await further updates before reassessing our view. Within the Packaging sector, our preference remains Amcor (AMC, BUY, $76.00 TP)."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge lower

The Australian share market looks set to edge lower on Friday despite a decent night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 5 points lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.8%.

Oil prices rebound

It could be a good finish to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rebounded overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 4.65% to US$98.80 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 2% to US$96.68 a barrel. This was driven by concerns over the US-Iran ceasefire sticking.

Buy Life360 shares

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) shares could be undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $35.50. It said: "There is, therefore, some risk around the Q1 result – scheduled to be released on 12th May – and the potential of a downgrade or softening of the global MAU growth target though, on the flip side, reiteration of the guidance could be taken positively as it would show confidence in the outlook."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a decent finish to the week after the gold price rose slightly overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.2% to US$4,785.9 an ounce. Ceasefire concerns and the release of US inflation data were behind the rise.

Buy Northern Star shares

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares could be cheap according to Bell Potter. Ahead of the release of its quarterly update and following the announcement of a share buyback, the broker has retained its buy rating and $35.00 price target. It said: "The buy-back has minimal impact on our EPS estimates going forward, however the signalling of value in the underlying business is of more importance. As noted above, we see NST as hitting the bottom of production and earnings downgrades, with some margin compression to come from the impact of fuel prices."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But not all of them are necessarily buys today. So, let's see what analysts are saying about three popular ASX shares this week.

Here's what you need to know:

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

Despite CSL shares falling materially from their highs, the team at Bell Potter is not in a rush to invest. The broker has retained its hold rating on the biotech giant with a reduced price target of $155.00.

Bell Potter highlights that its shares are trading in line with peers, but estimates that its growth outlook is weaker than average. It said:

The current share price reflects a materially de-rated PE multiple of ~15x our FY27 NPAT forecast, bringing CSL in line with the global biopharma peer set which also trades at an avg PE of 15x. While CSL doesn't face the same extent of generic/biosimilar competition as these biopharma peers, it does have a lower growth outlook of ~2.5% revenue CAGR (3yr) per our forecast compared to >4% avg for global peers.

Considering the low-growth outlook in the near-term, risk to FY26 guidance, and our below-consensus FY27 forecasts, we maintain our HOLD recommendation notwithstanding the historically low trading multiple. We don't think CSL is out of the woods just yet. PT is lowered to $155.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG)

Over at Morgans, its analysts are positive on this fund manager ahead of its proposed merger with Barrenjoey.

This week, the broker has retained its buy rating on Magellan's shares with a trimmed price target of $11.99. It said:

MFG has given an end-to-March 2026 quarterly FUM update. FUM (A$37.5bn) was down 6% for the quarter due to a combination of outflows across most funds and market movements. Overall this was a softer quarter at the headline level, albeit some impacts from market volatility are unsurprising. We downgrade our MFG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -1%/-8% due to slightly weaker FUM assumptions and also applying more conservatism to our future Barrenjoey earnings forecasts. Our PT falls to A$11.99 (from A$12.43).

Whilst MFG's Investment Management performance remains patchy, we think the Barrenjoey merger fundamentally changes MFG's overall outlook, strengthening the business and providing additional pathways for growth. MFG also retains a strong balance sheet (~A$650m of liquidity, post deal). BUY maintained.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Lastly, Morgans thinks that this energy giant's shares are a hold (with a $33.40) price target.

It believes its shares are fairly valued following a strong gain in response to the war in the Middle East. It said:

We downgrade our rating on WDS to HOLD (from ACCUMULATE). Owning WDS has been powerful insurance (as a hedge against supply disruption) but now trading above A$35/share and above our NAV, it has crossed over into an active wager that the crisis is more permanent than we estimate, which sadly is possible, but should this be our base case steering our strategy? No. We remove our 10% conflict premium and apply our upgraded oil/LNG deck, for a small net change in our target price, now at A$33.40 (was A$33.55).

The post Buy, hold, sell: CSL, Magellan, and Woodside shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This follows a substantial sell-off for ASX 200 energy shares yesterday.

On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) dropped 7.3% after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

The rest of the market celebrated the news, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finishing the session 2.8% higher.

Today, we've seen a reversal of trends.

ASX 200 energy shares are up 2.4% while the ASX 200 is down 0.05%.

Oil prices have also rebounded today after a sharp fall yesterday.

Brent Crude is currently up 2.7% to US$97.35 per barrel.

Why are ASX 200 energy shares leading the market today?

There is uncertainty in the market as investors wonder how fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon will impact the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely obstructed.

As part of the ceasefire deal, Iran agreed to allow safe passage of shipping through the Strait, coordinated by its armed forces.

On Thursday, Trading Economics analysts said:

Iranian media reported that oil tanker traffic through the strait had been suspended following the attacks, amid disputes between Tehran and the American-Israeli side over whether the truce extends to Lebanon.

A senior Iranian official also stated that three provisions of the ceasefire agreement have already been breached.

Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said there are indications the strait may begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.

The Strait of Hormuz is not technically closed.

However, shipping companies have chosen not to sail through it for fear of Iranian attacks and a lack of insurance coverage.

About 20% of global crude oil and gas is shipped via the Strait.

The war has triggered the worst oil shock since the 1970s.

ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw on ceasefire tensions

Let's take a look at what's happened with the market's largest ASX 200 energy shares over the past two days.

On Wednesday, the Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price plummeted 10.4% to close at $32.06.

Today, Woodside shares have regained 3.8% to $33.29, at the time of writing.

Yesterday, the Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price fell 4.6% to $7.76. Today, Santos shares are 2.5% higher at $7.95.

The Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) share price dropped 13.4% to $1.90 on Wednesday.

Today, Karoon Energy shares are $1.98, up 4.3%.

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares fell 4.2% yesterday to $32.12, but today they're up 3.6% to $33.26.

The Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) share price tanked 9.1% to $2.42 yesterday.

Today, Viva Energy shares are $2.49 apiece, up 2.7%.

ASX 200 coal share Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) fell 9.8% to $7.49 on Wednesday.

Today, Yancoal shares are in the red again, down 0.1% to $7.48.

The New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) share price dropped 9.6% to $5.30 yesterday.

On Thursday, New Hope shares are slightly higher, up 0.2% to $5.31.

The post ASX 200 energy shares whipsaw amid fragile ceasefire appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here's why they are rising:

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN)

The Bendigo and Adelaide Bank share price is up 8% to $11.33. This morning, the regional bank revealed the second phase of the Productivity Program to accelerate its progress towards its 2030 strategy. This includes a seven-year technology service partnership with Infosys (NYSE: INFY), which will significantly improve its IT service delivery capability and provide access to enhanced capabilities, software engineering, and AI talent to deliver greater capacity to innovate. These changes are expected to result in an annual run rate expense benefit of approximately $65 million to $75 million, which will be realised by FY 2028. In addition, it released a trading update which revealed unaudited cash earnings of $137.9 million during the third quarter. This is up 7.6% on the quarterly average during the first half.

EBR Systems Inc (ASX: EBR)

The EBR Systems share price is up 7% to 70.5 cents. This follows the release of a first-quarter update from the medical device company this morning. EBR advised that it expects to report revenue in the range of US$2.25 million to US$2.36 million for the first quarter of 2026. The company's CEO, John McCutcheon, said: "In Q1 2026, we made impressive progress across both our commercial and clinical programs. Case volumes increased strongly during the quarter, reflecting growing physician experience, expanding site readiness and the steady execution of our Limited Market Release."

Strickland Metals Ltd (ASX: STK)

The Strickland Metals share price is up 9% to 23.5 cents. This has been driven by the release of positive assay results from diamond drilling at the Obradov Potok prospect in the Rogozna Project, Serbia. Strickland Metals' managing director, Paul L'Herpiniere, commented: "Following recent discoveries at Red Creek and Kotlovi, these results continue to highlight the scale and endowment of the broader Rogozna system. We are looking forward to undertaking follow-up drilling as part of the 2026 field season targeting the interpreted core of the system at Obradov Potok, where we see a compelling opportunity to make a major new discovery."

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside Energy share price is up 4% to $33.27. This is despite there being no news out of the energy giant on Thursday. However, it is possible that investors believe Woodside shares were oversold yesterday after oil prices sank in response to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The post Why Bendigo Bank, EBR Systems, Strickland, and Woodside shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

He describes what he calls a "double-sided ceasefire" contingent on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz to allow oil supplies to flow back through.

The latest update has renewed hopes that the two nations may be moving toward a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict.

The announcement saw the price of WTI crude oil plummet below US$95 per barrel this morning, down from over US$117 per barrel yesterday, according to Trading Economics data.

The prices for Brent oil, gasoline, and heating oil have also dropped significantly.

The latest market shift has acted as a tough headwind for ASX oil and gas or energy shares this morning, with many opening in the red.

These are the stocks to watch today.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Woodside shares have crashed 10.7% this morning, to $31.97 a piece. Today's share price drop follows a steep share price rally during the first three months of 2026, which accelerated significantly since the conflict between the US and Iran ramped up in late February. 

Woodside shares spiked to a multi-year high of $34.93 at the close of the ASX on Tuesday, having jumped over 51% since the start of 2026.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Santos shares have dropped 6% in Wednesday morning trade, after news that a reprieve in global oil restrictions saw investors sell up their shares. The Australian oil and gas exportation and production company's shares are changing hands for $7.60 a piece at the time of writing.

Santos shares spiked to a four-year high of $8.08 at the close of the ASX yesterday afternoon, having jumped 31.5% since the markets opened on the 2nd of January.

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT)

Beach Energy shares are also suffering in early morning trade. At the time of writing, the Australian oil and gas exploration and production company's shares are down 7.1% to $1.21 a piece.

The shares jumped over 20% in March alone, but after this morning's sell-off, they're trading 0.8% below where they were this time last year.

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD)

The Australian petroleum company is the largest transport energy distributor and retailer in Australia, with more than 1,800 Ampol-branded service stations across the country as of June 2025. Unsurprisingly, news that the US and Iran could be reaching a peace deal has resulted in a sharp drop in its share price.

At the time of writing, Ampol shares are down 4.2% to $32.03 each; however, they are still up 13.7% since the war escalated in late February.

Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA)

Viva Energy Australia is a listed Australian company that owns the Geelong Oil Refinery and is licensed to retail Shell-branded fuels across Australia under a licence agreement. It also owns and retails fuel through Coles Express, OTR, Reddy Express, Liberty Oil, and Westside Petroleum-branded service stations. 

Like Ampol, its share price is suffering from downward pressure from lower oil prices this morning. At the time of writing, Viva shares have crashed 9.9% to $2.38. Viva shares have soared, however, over the past 5 weeks. Even after this morning's decline, the share price is 34.5% higher than in late February. 

The post ASX shares to watch as oil price crashes appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

They are under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday morning.

At the time of writing, Santos shares are down approximately 6%, while Woodside shares have tumbled around 11%.

Why are Santos and Woodside shares under pressure?

The key driver behind the sharp declines is a sudden and significant drop in oil prices.

According to CNBC, oil prices sank after US President Donald Trump agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks. This is in exchange for Tehran allowing a safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait under normal conditions.

This is a major shift in sentiment and great news for the global economy. In recent weeks, oil prices had surged to US$110.00 a barrel on fears that escalating conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global energy supplies.

But that risk has now been reduced, at least in the short term.

Why this matters for Santos and Woodside

Energy producers like Santos and Woodside are highly sensitive to movements in oil prices.

When oil prices rise, their revenue and earnings expectations typically increase. But when oil prices fall sharply, the opposite happens.

The scale of the move was significant. According to CNBC:

The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery fell more than 16% to $94.47 per barrel [and then] International benchmark Brent for June delivery lost more than 15% to $92.21 per barrel.

A double-digit percentage decline in oil prices in a single session is a major event. It forces investors to quickly reassess the earnings outlook for oil and gas companies.

That is why both Santos and Woodside shares are being sold off heavily today.

It also explains why fuel guzzlers like Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) are roaring higher today.

A reminder of volatility

Today's moves highlight just how sensitive ASX energy shares can be to global events.

Santos and Woodside are not falling because of company-specific news. Instead, they are reacting to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that directly impact commodity prices.

While the long-term outlook for energy demand may remain intact, short-term price swings like this can create sharp volatility in share prices.

Overall, it is a timely reminder that owning energy stocks often means riding the ups and downs of global oil markets.

The post Why are Santos and Woodside shares crashing today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Let's see if the broker is bullish or bearish on these names. Here's what it is recommending:

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL)

Morgans was pleased with the company's recent half-year results, which were the first since the merger with Brickworks.

Commenting on the result, the broker said:

SOL has recently released its 1H26 result, which represents the first reporting period post the completion of the Brickworks (BKW) merger (Sep-25). It was another strong period for SOL, with Pre-tax NAV increasing ~15% on pcp to ~A$13.8bn. The portfolio delivered a 9.7% increase in NAV per share in the period (versus the ASX200 total return index returning 3.1%).

Net cash flow from investments (NCFI) grew ~15% on pcp to ~A$334m, supported by strong contributions from the private, credit and real asset portfolios. Regular NPAT from the portfolio was up ~21% on pcp to ~A$397m. A 48cps fully-franked interim dividend was declared (28 consecutive years of dividend increases).

However, despite being pleased with Soul Patts' results, due to the outperformance of its shares, it isn't enough for a buy rating. The broker has put a hold rating and $41.85 price target on them. It said:

Our DDM/SOTP-derived price target is now A$41.85 following the BKW merger, which materially changed the portfolio composition and tax base. We also remove the associated premium we had applied to our prior valuation to factor in index upweighting post the merger. Our updated forecasts are overleaf. We continue to like the SOL story, particularly its track record of growing distributions and history of uncorrelated and above market returns. We maintain our Hold recommendation.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Another ASX 200 stock that the broker has been looking at is energy giant Woodside.

After removing its 10% conflict premium that was applied to Woodside shares, but upgrading its oil and gas assumptions, the broker has come to a valuation of $33.40. And with its shares racing beyond this price target, it has downgraded its shares to a hold rating (from accumulate). It explains:

We downgrade our rating on WDS to HOLD (from ACCUMULATE). Owning WDS has been powerful insurance (as a hedge against supply disruption) but now trading above A$35/share and above our NAV, it has crossed over into an active wager that the crisis is more permanent than we estimate, which sadly is possible, but should this be our base case steering our strategy? No. We remove our 10% conflict premium and apply our upgraded oil/LNG deck, for a small net change in our target price, now at A$33.40 (was A$33.55).

The post What is Morgans saying about these massively popular ASX 200 stocks? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Today's increase follows a steep share price rally during the first three months of 2026, which accelerated significantly since conflict between the US and Iran ramped up in late February. 

Rising oil prices have acted as a strong tailwind for Woodside shares over the past month. Conflict in the Middle East has threatened the movement of oil in the region while shipping disruptions and production cuts caused prices to skyrocket to a multi-year high. 

Trading Economics data shows that the price of WTI crude oil has nearly doubled since late February. At the time of writing, the price of oil has surged to US$115 per barrel, which is the highest price since June 2022. 

Woodside shares are now up 49.6% for the year to date and 84% higher than just 12 months ago.

Here are four reasons why I think the ASX energy shares are still a screaming buy.

1. Surging oil prices show no sign of slowing down

As Australia's largest oil operator and producer, global oil supply concerns arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are acting as a significant tailwind for Woodside shares. 

US President Donald Trump has warned that he will target Iranian power plants and bridges if his deal conditions are not met by Tuesday 8pm Eastern Time. Tehran has warned it will retaliate. The latest update has overshadowed any signs that the two nations may be moving toward a ceasefire agreement.

2. Woodside has strong financials

The oil and gas giant reported a strong 2025 result in late February, which confirmed an all-time high full-year production of 198.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), topping guidance. Its costs fell 4% for the calendar year, and while revenue dropped 1%, its EBITDA was in line with 2024. 

3. It pays good dividends to shareholders

Its strong financial position means it has been able to pay a consistent dividend payment to its shareholders, and at a good yield. Woodside traditionally makes two fully-franked dividend payments to shareholders every year, payable in March/April and September/October. 

It most recently paid a final dividend of 59 cents per share late last month, fully franked. That brings the total annual dividend to $1.12 per share, which implies a yield of 3.156% at the time of writing.

4. Upside potential ahead

Even after the latest share price rally, some analysts think there is potential for more upside ahead over the next 12 months.

TradingView data shows that, of 15 analysts, eight have a hold rating and another five have a buy or strong buy rating on Woodside shares. 

The maximum target price is $44.03, which implies a potential 24.3% upside over the next 12 months. 

The post 4 reasons why Woodside shares are a screaming buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock closed on Thursday trading for $34.89. In early afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are swapping hands for $35.50 apiece, up 1.8%.

For some context the ASX 200 is up 1.6% at this same time.

Spurred by surging global gas and oil prices, Woodside shares are now up a whopping 50.5% since market close on 31 December, while the benchmark index is just about flat over this same period.

And this doesn't include the 83.5 cents per share fully franked dividends that Woodside paid out to eligible stockholders on 27 March.

If we add that back in, then Woodside stock has gained 54.0% so far in 2026. And this is a company with a market cap north of $67 billion.

With this picture in mind, is the ASX 200 energy share still a good buy today?

Should you buy Woodside shares today?

Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable recently analysed the outlook for the Aussie oil and gas giant (courtesy of the Bull).

"We were buying this major oil and gas producer prior to the conflict in Iran in response to looming supply issues," Gable said. "Investors have been underweight in the energy sector."

According to Gable, who currently has a hold recommendation on Woodside shares:

As the world increasingly focuses on tightening energy supplies, we expect investors will start adding the most liquid and blue-chip energy stocks to their portfolios. The largest on the ASX is Woodside Energy.

Indeed, with the Iran war crimping global supplies, Brent crude oil is trading for US$111 per barrel today, up 83% year to date.

As for his hold recommendation on Woodside, Gable concluded, "The share price recently pushed beyond several major technical levels, which is a positive sign from a charting point of view."

What's the latest from the ASX 200 energy stock?

Woodside reported its full calendar year 2025 results on 24 February.

Highlights included record full-year production of 198.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), exceeding the company's guidance.

The company reported revenue of $12.98 billion, down 1.0% year on year. And with 2025 realised oil prices significantly lower than in 2024, underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2.65 billion was down 8%.

But with the final dividend slipping only 1.6%, and the outlook for oil and gas prices already improving in late February, Woodside shares closed up 2.4% on the day of the results release.

The post Up 54% in 2026, are Woodside shares still a good buy today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's see what analysts are saying about three popular shares, courtesy of The Bull. Here's what they are recommending:

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

The team at Morgans is positive on this gaming technology company and has named its shares as a buy.

The broker believes that its shares are attractively priced at current levels given its strong track record of growth. It said:

Aristocrat Leisure designs, develops and distributes gaming content, platforms and systems. It offers high quality recurring earnings from generating real money online gaming opportunities. An under geared balance sheet provides options for acquisitions, and ALL is a capital light business with strong cash conversion. The company is trading well below historical levels. The stock is attractively valued given its track record of proven earnings growth.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

Over at Fairmont Equities, it has named BHP shares as a hold this week.

While it believes a commodities bull market is only just beginning and BHP is a safe bet, it isn't quite recommending the Big Australian as a buy just yet. It commented:

The commodities bull market has only just started, in my view. As a global mining giant, BHP generally appeals to investors looking to increase exposure in the resources sector. BHP's share price has retreated to a major support level since the start of the war in Iran. I'm confident the stock should bounce from these levels. BHP's diversification makes it a safer bet for investors to ride the commodities bull market.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Fairmont Equities has also named Woodside shares as a hold this week.

While it was a buyer of Woodside shares before the US-Iran conflict, it isn't adding to its holding at current levels following a strong share price rise. It said:

We were buying this major oil and gas producer prior to the conflict in Iran in response to looming supply issues. Investors have been underweight in the energy sector. As the world increasingly focuses on tightening energy supplies, we expect investors will start adding the most liquid and blue chip energy stocks to their portfolios. The largest on the ASX is Woodside Energy. The share price recently pushed beyond several major technical levels, which is a positive sign from a charting point of view.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Aristocrat, BHP, and Woodside shares  appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Indeed, from market close on 27 February through to the closing bell on 31 March, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) rocketed a jaw-dropping 18.5%.

Here's how these top Aussie oil and gas producers fared over the month just past:

• Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares jumped 23.8%
• Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares gained 17.8%
• Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares gained 18.2%
• Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) shares surged 32.9%

So, why were investors piling into the energy sector in March?

ASX 200 energy share leap on oil price surge

The massive outperformance for ASX 200 energy shares like Woodside and Karoon was driven by a surge in oil and gas prices following the US and Israeli attack on Iran.

On 27 February, Brent crude oil was trading for US$72.50 a barrel, according to data from Bloomberg. On 31 March that same barrel was fetching US$107.50, up more than 48% over the month.

That meteoric increase came as some 20% of the world's oil supply routes were upended by the war's essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with gas supplies also hit by attacks on Middle East LNG plants.

Atop hoping for share price gains, investors also look to have been buying the ASX 200 energy shares with hopes that surging profits will see them declare supersized dividends later this year.

What else happened with the Aussie energy giants in March?

Beach Energy, Santos and Woodside were among the ASX 200 energy shares to release significant announcements in March.

On 9 March, Beach and Santos announced that they had taken a Final Investment Decision (FID) to proceed with their joint venture Moomba Central Optimisation  (MCO) project, located in South Australia.

Commenting on the decision, which saw Santos shares close up 2.4% on the day and Beach Energy shares gain 1.3%, Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods said:

The MCO project will unlock significant value from the Cooper Basin asset, driven by efficiencies gained from the rationalisation of existing satellite facilities into a new centralised compression facility, and supporting future production growth from the Central Fields.

March also saw Woodside reveal its new CEO, after former CEO Meg O'Neill stepped down in December following four years in the top role.

On 18 March, the ASX 200 energy share reported that Liz Westcott was taking over as CEO and Managing Director, effective immediately.

Westcott had been serving as acting CEO since O'Neill stepped down in December. Before that she served as Woodside's Executive Vice President and COO, Australia.

The post How ASX 200 energy shares like Santos, Beach and Woodside surged in March's sinking market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.