The ASX mining share can offer a high dividend yield, though peers like Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) typically offer a higher yield.

However, while BHP may not always offer the highest dividend yield on the ASX, it can provide shareholders with diversification rather than dependence on a single commodity, which is appealing.

BHP produces iron ore, copper and coal. It's also working on a potash (fertiliser) project in Canada called Jansen. By generating earnings from multiple resources, the business is able to lower the risk and volatility of being exposed to just one resource.

I thought the FY26 result was a great example of the ASX mining share's ability to generate larger profits and dividends.

In FY26, BHP's board of directors increased the annual dividend per share by 56% to US$1.72.

The business reported revenue growth of 15% to US$58.8 billion, underlying attributable profit growth of 30% to US$13.2 billion, profit from operations growth of 23% to US$23.9 billion and underlying operating profit (EBITDA) growth of 27% to US$32.9 billion.

Copper was the key driver of the result, with the average realised (meaning sold) price soaring 35% to US$5.74 per pound. This helped copper's underlying operating profit (EBITDA) rise 48% to US$18.2 billion. Rising demand helped, particularly from electrification and data centres.

In this article, we're not thinking about FY26 payments. We're going to look at the potential FY27 annual dividend, which will be paid in 2027.

2027 dividend projection for owners of BHP shares

According to the projection on CMC Invest, the ASX mining share is projected to pay an annual dividend per share of $2.07 in the 2027 financial year, representing a sizeable potential reduction for Australians.

At the time of writing, that translates into a dividend yield of 3.4% excluding franking credits and 4.9% including franking credits.

If someone were to invest $15,000 in BHP, they would be able to buy 246 BHP shares, with a little bit of money left over.

With those 246 BHP shares, investors would receive $509.22 in passive income and $727.46 overall, including franking credits.

Is this a good time to invest in the ASX mining share?

According to CMC Invest, there have been 15 analyst rating calls on the business in the last three months.

Of those 15, 13 were a hold rating, one was a buy rating, and one was a sell rating. The investment professionals are very neutral on the appeal of the company's valuation right now.

The average price target of those 15 ratings is $59.23. That means those analysts collectively predict the BHP share price could fall by 2% within the next year (at the time of writing).

For now, it seems like there are better ASX shares for Australians to buy.

The post If I invest $15,000 in BHP shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

According to the report, based on the FY26 earnings of 42 mining/materials companies in the S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (ASX: XJR): 

• 34.4% of earnings came from copper
• 33.4% came from iron ore

Why is this significant?

Australia's mining industry is entering a new phase. 

Iron ore has long been the dominant source of earnings for Australia's major miners, but in FY26, copper edged ahead for the first time across the listed mining sector. 

The shift reflects both stronger copper prices and the growing importance of copper to Australia's largest miners, as demand rises from electrification, power infrastructure, and AI-related investment.

Importantly for investors, this doesn't mean Australia is producing more copper than iron ore, or that copper is a bigger commodity by tonnes, exports, or total sales. 

It's specifically about earnings/profit contribution.

Why is this happening?

Copper has benefited from demand associated with AI infrastructure, electricity grids, data centres, and the clean-energy transition. 

BetaShares said the strength in AI and clean-energy investment has been supporting copper prices, while weaker Chinese demand has limited iron-ore prices.

Copper is one of the most important materials in building global AI infrastructure and for the green energy transition. Data centres, power distribution, wiring. All of it uses copper at extraordinary scale. So, while Australian investors cannot buy the AI companies directly through a local index, Australia's mining sector is now one of the ways to benefit from these buildouts.

How to target copper shares

This structural shift is apparent in Australia's biggest mining companies. 

Blue-chip stocks like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are gradually shifting their growth strategies towards copper, rather than relying as heavily on iron ore for future growth.

In FY26, copper generated more than half of BHP's underlying EBITDA for the first time, despite the company continuing to produce record amounts of iron ore.

This makes BHP a viable option for investors looking for copper exposure. 

Other copper shares worth considering for direct exposure include: 

• Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) – global mineral exploration and development company, largely focused on copper
• Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) – operates as a copper producer with a diversified portfolio of operating assets focused in the Americas
• Kaoko Metals Ltd (ASX: KAO) – exploration and development company, which acquires and explores mineral projects, primarily copper and gold in Namibia

Foolish takeaway 

Copper has overtaken iron ore as the largest contributor to earnings across Australia's listed mining sector, reflecting stronger copper prices and rising demand from AI, electrification, and energy infrastructure. 

As major miners such as BHP increasingly focus their growth strategies on copper, investors have several ways to gain exposure, from diversified blue-chip miners to more copper-focused companies. 

The post Copper has overtaken iron ore – Here are the top copper shares to target appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's because the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant kicked off 2022 by paying an all-time high fully franked interim dividend.

And BHP's final 2022 dividend was second only to the record high 2021 final payout, spurred by soaring iron ore prices at the time.

While the next three years saw the BHP dividend decline each year, the miner's FY 2026 dividend payouts reversed that trend, climbing 41.6% from 2025.

So, if you'd invested $10,000 in BHP shares in five years ago, just how much passive income would you already have received?

Investing $10,000 in BHP shares for passive income

Five years ago, on 17 September 2021 you could have picked up BHP stock for $34.87 per share.

So, for $10,000 you could have bought 286 BHP shares with enough change left over for a pizza.

On Thursday, the ASX mining giant was trading for $60.37 a share. Meaning those 286 shares are now worth $17,266.

Those are some tidy capital gains.

As for that passive income, if you'd owned the stock since September 2021, you would have received the last 10 BHP dividend payouts totalling $13.583 per share.

And those 286 BHP shares you bought for $10,000 would already have returned $3,885 in passive income.

Why is the BHP dividend back on the rise?

The 41.6% increase in the FY 2026 BHP dividend payouts was supported by a stronger than expected iron ore price and a surging copper price.

On the copper front, while production slipped 3% year on year to 1.953 million tonnes, the miner's average realised price of US$5.74 per pound was up 35% from FY 2025.

This led to a 48% year on year increase in underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from its copper division to US$18.2 billion. And it marked the first year where copper beat out iron ore on the earnings front, with the red metal contributing 54% contribution of BJP's total underlying EBITDA of US$32.9.

And copper should continue to be a strong earner for the Aussie mining giant over the long-haul.

According to BHP:

Copper fundamentals remain attractive. Demand is expected to grow from ~34 Mtpa today to >50 Mtpa by CY50, driven by traditional economic growth (home building, electrical equipment and household appliances), energy transition (renewables and electric vehicles) and digital (artificial intelligence and data centres).

On the bottom line, the big uptick in the passive income from BHP shares in FY 2026 came amid the miner's 30% increase in underlying profit, which climbed to US$13.2 billion.

The post Bought $10,000 worth of BHP shares 5 years ago? Guess how much passive income you've already earned appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

I think all three have strong long-term investment cases, although for quite different reasons.

Here is why I would be happy to buy each of them today.

BHP shares

BHP would be my pick for long-term exposure to the resources sector.

The company already owns some of the world's largest mining operations, giving it a strong base from which to keep investing.

Iron ore remains an important source of cash flow, but I am particularly interested in where BHP's copper business could be heading.

Copper will be needed for electricity networks, renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, data centres, and many other areas likely to attract significant investment over the coming decade.

Bringing new copper supply online can also take many years. BHP already owns major assets and has the financial strength to continue investing, while weaker competitors may struggle.

Commodity prices can be volatile, so earnings will never be perfectly smooth. But I think BHP's scale and portfolio of long-life assets make it one of the ASX miners I would be most comfortable owning for years.

CBA shares

CBA is my preferred major Australian bank.

The company has built extremely strong customer relationships across home lending, deposits, business banking, and everyday financial services.

I also think its technology gives it an important advantage. The CommBank app has become central to how many customers manage their finances, making it easier for CBA to deepen those relationships and offer additional products.

That does not mean the bank will suddenly become a rapid-growth company. Australian banking is highly competitive, and CBA regularly trades at a premium valuation.

But I think the quality of the business can justify paying more than I would for some of its rivals.

Add in the potential for fully-franked dividends, and I think CBA can offer investors a strong combination of income and capital growth.

CSL shares

CSL gives me a completely different opportunity.

The healthcare giant has been through a difficult period, but I think the earnings outlook is improving.

CSL has major positions in plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialist medicines, backed by a global collection network and operations that would be extremely difficult to replicate.

The business also has opportunities to improve margins as productivity increases and some of the pressures that weighed on recent results ease.

CSL shares have already recovered substantially from their lows, so the bargain available earlier this year has been missed. Even so, I still think the valuation leaves room for worthwhile returns if earnings continue growing over the next few years.

Foolish takeaway

Yes, I think BHP, CBA, and CSL shares are all top buys today.

BHP gives me exposure to resources that should remain important for decades, CBA is the Australian bank I would most want to own, and CSL still has room to rebuild earnings after a difficult period.

I would be comfortable buying any of the three and giving the investment plenty of time to develop.

The post Are BHP, CBA, and CSL shares top buys? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

When you think of big-name Australian mining shares, it's hard to look past South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). Both are resource powerhouses, but they've taken different approaches to growth, dividends, and the commodities they dig up. If you're weighing up South32 vs Rio Tinto shares for your portfolio, here's what stands out.

The case for South32

South32 emerged from BHP's 2015 demerger and now runs mining operations across ten countries, extracting everything from bauxite and aluminium to copper, silver, zinc, nickel, and manganese. According to its most recent company description, it employs around 9000 people and provides the raw materials crucial for construction, energy, renewables, and consumer products worldwide.

Among South32's fundamentals, a few things jump out. Its P/E ratio sits at 14.79, putting it in the reasonable valuation camp—neither super cheap nor stretched. The company's year-to-date (YTD) return is a real eye-catcher: up 38.07%, a hefty gain for any mining stock. Its dividend yield is a modest 1.94%, but it comes fully franked—a plus for Aussie income hunters. Over recent years, dividends have been consistently franked at 100%, and recent payouts, while not the highest, have shown reasonable regularity.

The case for Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto needs little introduction: this is one of the world's largest and oldest mining operations, tracing its roots to 1873. Listed on the ASX since 1962, Rio focuses on three major pillars—iron ore (its biggest earner), aluminium and lithium, and copper. The group also dabbles in other critical minerals through exploration and development, making it a true heavyweight in global resources.

Looking at Rio Tinto's metrics, scale is the first thing that stands out. With a market cap of $61.82 billion, it dwarfs South32. Rio also offers a more generous dividend yield at 4.07%, again fully franked. Earnings per share are much higher (7.382 vs South32's 0.235), consistent with its size and profitability. The P/E ratio is slightly higher at 15.94, but still sits in a similar band—a sign that you're not paying a huge premium for the blue-chip name. YTD, Rio's return is 16.56%: less blazing than South32's, but still a solid result considering its scale.

Valuation comparison

There's enough difference across important metrics to pop them into a table for an at-a-glance check:

Rio commands a huge lead in size, dividends, and profit per share. South32 is a smaller, more diversified operator and has delivered outsized returns so far this year.

Recent share price performance

Let's look at how the share prices have moved in recent weeks. Both companies' price history data covers the same date range: from 18 August to 16 September 2026.

South32 started on 18 August at $4.82 and finished on 16 September at $5.01. That's a gain of about 3.9% over this short period, consistent with its strong year-to-date performance. Rio Tinto started this period at $167.40 (18 August), ending at $166.25 on 16 September—a slight drop of roughly 0.7%. While Rio had some up days, the overall trend recently has been a touch negative.

It's worth noting, South32 has enjoyed a positive burst inline with its year-to-date trend, while Rio has flattened out.

Which is the better buy?

If I had to pick between South32 and Rio Tinto right now, my lean would be toward South32. Here's why: Its huge 38% YTD gain stands out—it's been a clear outperformer, and the recent price momentum shows buyers remain enthusiastic. While its dividend isn't as juicy as Rio's, it's fully franked and shows reasonable consistency.

Rio Tinto is a true blue-chip, offering scale, stability, and a far bigger dividend—great reasons for conservative, income-focused investors to be interested. But its recent share price has drifted sideways or down, and it lags South32 in YTD returns.

For those seeking growth and recent market momentum, South32 is my pick. But if you value big, steady dividends and market dominance, I can completely understand going with Rio. With both stocks offering 100% franking and trading at similar valuations, the edge for me goes to South32 on its current performance and uptrend.

The post South32 vs Rio Tinto: 2 popular ASX mining shares compared appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If you're looking to bank reliable passive income from the mining space, two big names on the ASX often get a close look: Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG). Both are true Australian heavyweights, attractively sized, and generous dividend payers—plus, their fully franked dividends can be a real drawcard for savvy local investors. But if you're weighing up Woodside Energy vs Fortescue shares, which is the better bet for building sustainable, hands-off income? Let's break it down.

The case for Woodside Energy Group

Woodside Energy is Australia's largest independent oil and gas company, and the largest operator of oil and gas production in the country. With roots going back to 1954, Woodside's business stretches across offshore platforms and international assets, strengthened by its recent high-profile merger with BHP's oil and gas portfolio. Listed since 1971, it now sits among the largest companies on the ASX.

What stands out about Woodside:

• It boasts a sizeable market cap of $63.25 billion, underscoring its scale and stability.
• The dividend yield is a strong 5.04%, fully franked, making its income stream friendly for local investors.
• Recent performance has been robust, with a 44.04% year to date return—a real contrast against some sector peers.

The case for Fortescue

Fortescue is one of the giants in iron ore production, sitting just behind BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale globally. Its flagship operations cover major mining hubs in the Pilbara, a major port, and the world's fastest heavy-haul railway. Since debuting on the ASX in 1987, it's grown into a $50.93 billion titan, underpinning a massive chunk of global iron ore supply.

Numbers I'd call out for Fortescue:

• The current dividend yield is a hefty 6.66%, fully franked, comfortably outpacing Woodside.
• A lower P/E ratio of 12.46 could be pointing to better value at these levels.
• However, 2026's year to date return is -21.40%, showing headwinds for the share price.

Valuation comparison

Here's a side-by-side look at the key income and value metrics:

The key takeaway here: Fortescue offers the higher dividend yield for those hunting passive income, and sports a slightly cheaper earnings multiple. But Woodside is the larger company, with a higher earnings per share and a much better share price run lately.

Recent share price performance

All prices quoted are as of 16 September 2026. Woodside closed at $33.27, having climbed 2.84% that day, capping off a strong few weeks—with only minor dips and overall upward price momentum. Year to date, Woodside shares are up a very impressive 44.04%.

Fortescue, meanwhile, finished at $16.54 (up 1.97% that day), but the bigger story is in the negatives: its year to date return is -21.40%. Across the most recent weeks, Fortescue has seen sharper drops and less sustained upward movement than Woodside, reflecting trickier recent trading conditions.

Which is the better buy?

If I'm focused on pure passive income, I think Fortescue has the edge on yield alone—a 6.66% fully franked payout is nothing to sneeze at. That's a good margin above Woodside's 5.04%. But the picture isn't that simple. Woodside brings a larger, arguably more resilient business, higher earnings per share, and absolutely stellar recent share price performance. Fortescue's negative YTD performance, on the other hand, is a yellow flag—it's been a rough run for FMG shareholders lately.

Both stocks have given out big, fully franked dividends for years, but Woodside's price momentum suggests investors have more confidence in its near-term prospects. If my sole priority was maximising present yield, I'd take a good look at Fortescue. But factoring in total return and share price stability, my pick would be Woodside for a smoother and potentially more sustainable passive income ride. The lower headline yield is offset by the capital growth and big-company resilience, which count for a lot in this space.

The post Woodside Energy vs Fortescue: Which ASX mining share is best for passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

For a beginner, I would keep things fairly simple and focus on established businesses that are easy to understand and have strong long-term prospects.

These five would be high on my list.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

Macquarie would be one of the first shares I would consider.

The company operates across areas including asset management, infrastructure, commodities, financial markets, banking, and advisory.

For a beginner, I think that provides an interesting introduction to a financial business that looks quite different from the major Australian banks.

Macquarie earns money from managing assets for clients, helping businesses manage commodity and financial risks, lending, and providing other financial services around the world.

That gives the company several ways to grow as its operations expand.

Earnings can move around from year to year, so I would not expect a perfectly smooth ride. But for someone investing with a long-term view, I think Macquarie is a high-quality business with plenty of opportunity still ahead of it.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

Woolworths is another ASX share I think beginners should consider.

Most Australians are familiar with its supermarkets and the role they play in everyday spending.

Grocery demand is also fairly dependable. People may cut back on discretionary purchases when budgets become tighter, but they still need food and household essentials.

I think Woolworths also has opportunities to grow through population growth, online shopping, and continued improvements across its stores and supply chain.

The company pays dividends as well, which can give new investors another way to see how owning shares can generate returns over time.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

Telstra would add a more defensive element.

Mobile phones and internet connections have become essential services for households and businesses, giving Telstra recurring demand through different economic conditions.

The company has also made sustainable dividend growth an important part of its plans.

I would not expect Telstra to deliver spectacular growth every year. But I think there is value in owning a business with dependable demand, established infrastructure, and regular cash returns to shareholders.

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

ResMed would give beginners stronger growth potential.

The company develops devices, masks, and software for sleep apnoea and respiratory care.

I like how large the opportunity remains. Sleep apnoea is significantly underdiagnosed and undertreated globally, leaving ResMed with plenty of potential patients still to reach.

There is also recurring demand after someone begins treatment because masks and other accessories need replacing over time.

For a beginner, I think ResMed offers a good introduction to owning an ASX share with a genuinely global business.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP would round out my five picks.

The mining giant gives investors exposure to commodities including iron ore and copper, which remain important to construction, manufacturing, electrification, and infrastructure.

BHP's earnings can change significantly as commodity prices move, which is worth understanding before investing.

At the same time, its scale, strong balance sheet, and long-life assets make it one of the more established ways to gain exposure to the resources sector.

The company can also return substantial cash to shareholders when conditions are strong.

Foolish takeaway

I think all five companies give beginners something different to learn about investing.

Macquarie provides exposure to global financial markets, Woolworths and Telstra have businesses built around regular household demand, ResMed brings international healthcare growth, and BHP introduces the commodity cycle.

For someone researching their first few ASX shares, I think each is a sensible place to start.

The post 5 ASX shares I'd recommend to beginners appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But while both remain major iron ore producers, they have diversified their other income streams to the point where a different investment case can be made for each.

Major miners both kicking goals

Canaccord Genuity has just released a new research report into the companies, and said when it came to iron ore, it is no longer the majority revenue generator for each company.

The broker commented:

Nearly 60% of each company's EBITDA came from future-facing commodities over the six months to end-June 2026, with copper central to this transformation. This changes the investment case for BHP and RIO, which both increasingly provide upstream exposure to prominent structural growth thematics including electrification and the AI infrastructure build-out. In our view, their evolving earnings profiles also warrant a different valuation framework, with a greater contribution from copper supporting structurally higher earnings multiples.

Canaccord Genuity said BHP and Rio outperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by about 50% over the past 12 months, despite iron ore tracking slightly lower.

The broking house said copper accounted for 57% of earnings at BHP and 36% at Rio, while aluminium accounted for 20% of Rio's earnings.

Lithium was also emerging as an important commodity for Rio.

 Canaccord Genuity said:

The shifts in both companies' earnings mixes reflect years of disciplined capital allocation through organic project development and selective M&A, including BHP's acquisition of OZ Minerals in 2023 and RIO's acquisition of Arcadium Lithium in 2025, alongside support from commodity price tailwinds.

Canaccord Genuity said copper was the central focus of BHP's organic growth strategy, with projects under development in South Australia, Chile and Argentina.

The broker said Rio's growth strategy was broader, "spanning copper, Simandou in iron ore, the Arcadium portfolio in lithium, and aluminium''.

Canaccord Genuity added:

BHP and RIO are targeting broadly comparable copper production growth of ~20–25% by 2030 relative to FY26 levels, supported by brownfield expansions, operational ramp-ups and the development of their respective copper portfolios.

Canaccord Genuity also noted that copper producers generally traded at higher multiples than iron ore companies, reflecting copper's more attractive long-term fundamentals.

The broker said it preferred BHP to Rio, despite both being compelling propositions, because BHP was the highest-quality diversified miner, with a strong track record of operational delivery.

They also preferred BHP because of the central role of copper.

Canaccord Genuity added:

As the world's largest copper producer, BHP provides one of the largest and lower-risk ways to gain leverage to our preferred commodity

The post BHP vs Rio Tinto: What's the better buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That size can sometimes make it easy to assume the biggest growth period is already behind it.

I am not so sure that is the case.

And if I were looking for an ASX mining share to buy today and leave alone for the next decade, BHP would be high on my list.

Scale gives BHP options

One of the things I like most about BHP is the flexibility that comes with its scale.

The company owns large, long-life assets across several major commodities, which means management can direct capital towards the opportunities offering the strongest prospective returns.

That becomes particularly valuable in resources.

Mining projects can take years to develop, cost billions of dollars, and operate for decades once they are running. Companies with strong balance sheets and existing infrastructure have a major advantage when attractive opportunities appear.

BHP does not need every commodity to be booming at the same time.

It can continue investing through weaker periods, expand existing operations where the economics make sense, and take a patient approach to major new projects.

Over a 10-year holding period, I think that flexibility could be more valuable than trying to predict which commodity will perform best next year.

Demand should keep evolving

The global economy will probably look quite different a decade from now, but it will still need enormous quantities of physical materials.

Cities will keep expanding. Electricity networks need upgrading. Data centres, renewable energy projects, electric vehicles, construction, and manufacturing all require resources somewhere along the supply chain.

BHP's exposure to commodities, including copper and iron ore, puts it in a strong position to participate in that spending.

I am particularly interested in how its copper portfolio could develop.

BHP already operates major copper assets, giving it a platform to expand as demand increases. New supply is also difficult to bring online quickly, which could make high-quality existing operations increasingly valuable over time.

The important point for me is that BHP already owns the assets and expertise needed to participate rather than having to build an entirely new business from scratch.

I would expect income along the way

A decade is a long time to wait for an investment thesis to play out, so I also like that BHP can return substantial amounts of cash to shareholders.

Its dividend will move with commodity prices and profits, so I would never treat the payment as fixed.

But when conditions are strong, BHP's enormous operations can generate significant free cash flow.

That gives management the ability to balance reinvestment in future projects with dividends to shareholders.

For a long-term investor, I think receiving income while the company's asset base continues to develop is a valuable combination.

The risks are part of the investment

BHP will not deliver smooth results every year.

Commodity prices can fall sharply, major projects can run over budget, and changes in global economic activity can quickly affect demand.

There are also political, regulatory, and operational risks across the countries where BHP operates.

Those uncertainties are why I would think about the investment in decades rather than quarters.

I am backing the quality of the assets, the company's financial strength, and management's ability to allocate capital through multiple commodity cycles.

Foolish takeaway

BHP is the type of share I think makes more sense when viewed over years rather than months.

There will be weaker periods for commodity prices along the way, but the company has the assets, financial strength, and investment opportunities to keep moving forward through those cycles.

For me, that is enough to make BHP a share I would be comfortable buying and holding for the next decade.

The post Why I'd buy and hold BHP shares for 10 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's the type of nest egg that many Aussies aspire to have. They focus hard on building their superannuation balance, ensuring the fund is performing well, and adding extra voluntary contributions wherever they can.

It's a solid plan. But did you know that if you invest your superannuation wisely, you could also generate a passive income to live off when it's time to retire?

But how much passive income could a $650,000 balance realistically generate each month?

Let's break it down.

What passive income can I earn off a $650,000 superannuation balance?

The math is simple. 

To calculate your potential passive income, you simply need to multiply your total superannuation balance by the overall dividend yield of your portfolio.

But the problem is that the answer varies widely depending on what that dividend yield is.

For example, $650,000 x 3% = $19,500 per year in dividend payments.

But if your portfolio has a slightly higher dividend yield of around 4%, your passive income will be higher. That's because $650,000 x 4% = $26,000 per year in dividend payments. 

If your superannuation portfolio yields closer to 5%, you could earn $32,500 every year in dividend payments off the same superannuation balance ($650,000 x 5% = $32,500).

Then, at a 6% yield, you could earn an annual passive income of around $39,000, and at 7%, it could be even higher, at around $45,500.

And so on… 

As your dividend yield increases, the passive income you can earn from your $650,000 superannuation balance also increases.

Note too that these figures are based on cash dividends before any tax or franking credit benefits.

Give me some ideas of what ASX shares I can invest my superannuation in

There is a huge range of shares out there, and their dividend yields vary significantly.

Some of my top picks would be defensive stocks. These are companies whose earnings tend to remain relatively steady throughout times of economic instability. They typically operate in "non-discretionary" industries where demand remains relatively stable even when consumer confidence dips. 

Their stable nature means they can help reduce the volatility of an overall investment portfolio. This is particularly valuable during times when geopolitical tensions are ongoing and inflation is stubbornly high.

These can be supermarket, telecommunications, or infrastructure stocks. Demand for food items and essential services is generally stable throughout all sections of the economic cycle. Think Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG), and Chorus Ltd (ASX: CNU). These shares yield between 3% and 6%.

Major blue chips like Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are generally considered cyclical stocks but with strong defensive qualities (rather than pure defensive stocks). These types of shares are highly regarded for their dominant market position and stable dividends. At the time of writing, the shares yield around 3% to 4%.

Diversify your portfolio

Remember that if you want to aim for, say, a 5% yielding portfolio, not every stock in that portfolio has to yield 5%. You should aim for a diversified range of shares yielding varying amounts, which combined total 5%.

It's also best to focus on a diverse range of high-quality businesses with strong balance sheets and stable earnings. Ideally, you want to focus on stocks that are most likely to stand the test of time.

And you don't need to invest the whole sum in one go. Start with regular monthly investments and let compounding do some of the hard work for you.

The post How much passive income could I earn from a $650,000 superannuation balance? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.91% to 8,669 points after touching an intraday low of 8,667 points.

That takes the ASX 200 to its lowest level in around 2 months and leaves it down almost 5% over the past month.

The index is now around 6.7% below its late August record high of 9,296 points, with selling picking up noticeably over the past week.

So, what is weighing on the market today?

A weak lead from Wall Street

Investors have had a negative lead to work with after US shares finished lower overnight.

The S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) fell 0.48%, the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) dropped 0.56%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) lost 0.29%.

Rising bond yields are another concern for markets.

The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 5% for the first time since 2023.

Investors are weighing higher inflation and the prospect of another interest rate rise from the US Fed Reserve.

A Reuters poll found 85% of economists expect the Fed to lift rates by 25 basis points this week.

Oil prices keep climbing

Oil is another thing investors are watching closely.

According to Trading Economics, Brent crude is trading around US$106 a barrel today as supply concerns remain in focus.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is offline, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still heavily disrupted.

The pipeline can carry around 4 million barrels per day, which is roughly 4% of global oil supply.

Commercial vessel traffic through the strait also fell to single digits over the weekend.

And with oil above US$100 a barrel again, investors will be watching what that could mean for inflation and interest rates.

Miners and banks under pressure

Closer to home, some of the ASX's biggest companies are weighing on the index.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are down 2.34% to $59.18, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares have fallen 2.69% to $163.67.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are down 2.96% to $21.96, and PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares have dropped 3.52% to $4.26.

The banks are lower as well, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares down 1.65% to $152.41.

Selling is fairly widespread across the market, with 110 of the top 200 shares lower, 81 higher and 9 unchanged in early afternoon trade.

The post ASX 200 drops again as selling continues appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

For investors building a portfolio for the long haul, these funds can provide a simple way to gain exposure to hundreds of companies. Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) and BetaShares Australia 200 ETF (ASX: A200) target the local market, while Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) and BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) give investors access to overseas markets.

But which funds have delivered the goods?

VAS: the Australian market workhorse

The top Vanguard ETF offers exposure to the 300 largest companies listed on the ASX, providing investors with a straightforward way to own a slice of corporate Australia.

Its recent performance has been underwhelming, falling around 3% over the past month and 1% over 12 months. But short-term performance isn't necessarily the main attraction.

VAS provides broad exposure across Australian industries and a relatively attractive income stream. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are among its largest holdings, each representing more than 10% of the portfolio.

The fund's dividend yield is around 3.7%, although investors should remember that Australian equities are heavily concentrated in financials and resources.

A200: low-cost Australian exposure

BetaShares Australia 200 ETF (ASX: A200) offers a similar proposition to the Vanguard ETF VAS, tracking the 200 largest Australian companies.

It has also struggled recently, down around 3% over the past month and 1% over 12 months.

Where A200 really stands out is cost. Its management fee is just 0.04%, while funds under management have climbed to around $11 billion.

Like VAS, its largest holdings include CBA and BHP, so investors face a similar concentration risk.

For a low-cost Australian core holding, however, A200 remains difficult to overlook.

VGS: taking the portfolio global

VGS tackles one of the biggest drawbacks of an Australia-only portfolio: concentration.

The Vanguard ETF provides exposure to developed international markets and has returned around 8% over the past year.

The US accounts for a significant portion of the portfolio, with technology heavyweights including Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) among its largest holdings, each representing more than 5% at the time of writing.

That international diversification opens the door to industries and companies that have a much smaller presence on the ASX.

NDQ: the growth bet

If A200 is the steady option, ASX: NDQ is the higher-octane alternative.

NDQ has gained around 11% over one year and an impressive 75% over five years, powered by its exposure to technology and other US growth companies.

Nvidia and Apple are among its biggest holdings, while the fund's 0.48% management fee is considerably higher than the 0.18% that Vanguard ETF VGS charges.

After such a powerful run, the question for investors is whether they're buying tomorrow's growth or yesterday's winners.

Foolish takeaway

There isn't one obvious winner. A200 has the cost advantage, VAS offers broad Australian exposure, VGS provides greater diversification, while NDQ has delivered the strongest growth.

For long-term investors, the better choice may depend less on picking a winner and more on combining complementary ETFs.

The post Vanguard ETFs vs. Betashares ETFs: Who's coming out on top? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX mining stock slipped another 0.5% on Monday to $60.59, extending a pullback that's now stripped more than 13% off the all-time high of $68.77 set back on 26 August.

13% down in a few weeks is the kind of move that gets value hunters circling. But before anyone gets too excited about a 'discount', it's worth asking whether BHP was ever actually cheap to begin with — and whether this dip is an opportunity or just gravity reasserting itself.

Keep the run in perspective

Even after the recent slide, BHP is still up roughly 33% so far in 2026, and a blistering 49% over the past 12 months. A 13% pullback off the top looks dramatic in isolation, but stack it against those gains, and it starts to look less like a crash and more like a breather after a sprint.

And the business hasn't been standing still. FY26 revenue climbed 15% to US$58.8 billion, while underlying EBITDA jumped 27% to US$32.9 billion. Net debt shrank to a lean US$8.7 billion. The full-year dividend rose to 172 US cents per share.

This isn't a company limping into a correction. It's one that's arguably earned its re-rating.

The copper story is the real headline

Buried in those numbers is arguably the most important structural shift at BHP in years. Copper, not iron ore, is now the earnings engine. Copper delivered US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA – up 48% – and made up 54% of group earnings. That's the first time copper out-earned iron ore across a full year.

Production held around 2 million tonnes for a second straight year, and management is chasing roughly 40% growth by FY35 via projects spanning Australia, Chile and Argentina.

If the world's electrification and grid-buildout thesis plays out anywhere near as expected, that positioning matters.

So, is BHP actually cheap?

Not really, and that's the uncomfortable part. BHP shares have essentially run up to meet the market's own expectations. TradingView consensus puts the average 12-month price target at $61.02 across 21 analysts.

That's basically where BHP shares sit today. Ratings are split: five strong buys, 13 holds and three sell/strong sells.

There's also a wide range of views. Morgan Stanley has a $68 target, while Freedom Capital Markets is at $66. Jefferies and Bank of America are both sitting at $65.

At the other end, Bernstein has a $44 target.

Foolish takeaway

This isn't a screaming bargain sitting there for the taking. Valuations are full, and brokers are largely clustered around the current price. But a fortress balance sheet, growing copper exposure, and a dividend that keeps climbing are hard to ignore.

History suggests that owning world-class assets at a fair price beats trying to nail the final 10% of a rally — or the first 10% of a dip.

For patient, long-term holders, BHP shares still look more like a stock to hold through the noise than one to bail on because of a bad fortnight.

The post BHP shares keep falling. Is now the time to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Atop the welcome passive income boost, BHP has also delivered some outsized capital gains.

Trading at $60.04 apiece on Monday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant have surged a remarkable 48% in 12 months.

That's seen the Aussie miner's market cap leap to just under $306 billion. And earlier this year, it saw BHP retake the mantle from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) as the biggest company on the ASX.

So, how about that $100 a week – or $5,200 a year – in passive income?

We'll crunch those numbers below in a tick.

But before we do, keep in mind that the dividend yields you generally see quoted are trailing yields. These are, by their nature, backward-looking.

Future BHP dividend payouts could be higher or lower depending on a range of macroeconomic and company-specific factors. For BHP, that includes things such as variable weather conditions and future copper and iron ore prices.

With that said…

Drilling into BHP shares for $100 a week in passive income

BHP paid a fully-franked interim dividend of $1.039 a share on 26 March.

Management then declared a final fully-franked dividend of $1.38 a share when the ASX 200 mining stock reported its full-year FY 2026 results on 18 August. That's up 50.2% from the previous final dividend payout.

It's a bit too late to grab that latest passive income payout, as BHP shares traded ex-dividend on 3 September. If you held the stock at market close on 2 September, you can expect to receive that boosted dividend next week, on 23 September.

For the full year, then, BHP paid out a total of $2.419 a share in fully-franked dividends.

At the recent share price, this sees the stock trading on a fully-franked trailing yield of 4%.

And to earn $100 a week, or $5,200 a year, in passive income, you'd need to buy $2,150 BHP shares today.

At the recent share price, that represents an investment of $129,086.

Now, I realise that's a big investment to make all in one go.

But that's okay.

Investing is a long game.

You can always buy a smaller number of BHP shares on a regular basis, and you'll reach your $100 weekly passive income goal in good time.

The post How many BHP shares do I need to buy to earn $100 a week in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's not hard to see why. The blue-chip major is currently the largest stock on the ASX by market capitalisation, and it has a consistently strong operational performance.

BHP is a cyclical, rather than a defensive stock. While cyclical stocks are closely tied to the broad economic cycle, they usually outperform during periods of economic recovery. And this is great news for income-focused investors.

The miner's strong operational history and diversified commodity exposure also means it has a long history of paying consistent and reliable fully-franked dividends to its shareholders.

But how much passive income could a $10,000 investment actually generate? 

Let's investigate.

What's the latest out of BHP shares?

At the time of writing, BHP shares are down about 1% and trading at $60.14. The shares are now up around 31% year-to-date and 48% higher than a year ago.

How many shares can I buy for $10,000?

At the current share price of $60.14, a $10,000 investment would buy about 166 shares.

What dividend does BHP pay its shareholders?

First, we need to understand what dividends the mining giant pays its shareholders.

BHP traditionally pays two fully franked dividends to shareholders each year, in March and September. 

BHP declared a total fully franked FY26 dividend of US$1.72 per share (equivalent to $2.4184) last month. This includes a US$0.73 interim and a US$0.99 final dividend. 

Based on the current share price, that translates to a dividend yield of around 4%.

For FY27, BHP is expected to pay US$1.93 (AU$2.70) to shareholders in FY27. At the time of writing, that implies a forward dividend yield of around 4.5%.

So, what passive income can I earn off my $10,000 investment?

Using the estimated payout figures above, we can calculate roughly how much income you can expect from a $10,000 investment.

If the mining giant were to pay the expected $2.70 per share in FY27, then your 166 BHP shares would generate a total of $448.20 in passive income.

What do brokers tip next for BHP shares?

BHP shares have enjoyed an incredible rally over the past 12 months off the back of stronger commodity prices and the company's strong operational performance.

But it looks like the shares are now trading around fair value.

Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a hold rating on BHP shares. The average $61.78 target price implies a potential 3% upside ahead, at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows similar sentiment. The majority of analysts (13 out of 21) have a hold rating on BHP shares. Another five rate the mining stock as a strong buy, and three rate the shares as a sell/strong sell.

The average $61.09 target price now implies a potential 2% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

However, the range between the maximum and minimum target prices is wide. Some forecast the shares to fall nearly 30% to $42.92. Meanwhile, others are bullish that BHP shares could climb another 12% higher to $67.50 over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

The post If I invest $10,000 in BHP shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By investing today, you can benefit from low tax rates, compounding, and eventually a tax-free passive income once you transition to the pension phase.

But how much do you actually need in your super to generate the passive income you want when you retire?

Let's break it down, using $5,500 per month as an example.

How much superannuation do I need to earn $5,500 of monthly passive income?

The math is simple.

First, calculate what $5,500 in passive income per month totals over the year. 

So, $5,500 x 12 = $66,000.

Then divide your annual passive income by your overall portfolio's dividend yield.

But the tricky part is that the answer varies widely depending on your portfolio's dividend yield.

For example, a portfolio with a dividend yield of around 6% only needs to be half the size of one with a dividend yield of around 3% to generate the same level of passive income. 

Let's break it down further

If your overall portfolio has a dividend yield of around 3%, you'll need a balance of around $2.2 million to earn $66,000 in passive income each year.

A $2 million-plus portfolio isn't achievable for many Australian investors, but the good news is that, as the dividend yield of your portfolio increases, the superannuation balance you need to earn the same passive income goes down.

For example, if your portfolio yields closer to 4%, you would need around $1.65 million in your superannuation to earn $5,500 in passive income each month.

Then, if your portfolio yields around 5%, your balance would need to be closer to $1.3 million to generate the same dividend income.

Increase that to a 6% or 7% dividend yield, and you're looking at closer to $1.1 million or $943,000. You'd still earn $66,000 per year in passive income with these portfolio sizes.

Note that the higher the yield, generally the higher the risk associated with that ASX stock.

Ok, so what ASX shares can I buy with dividend yields between 3% and 7%?

A wide range of shares yield 3% to 7%, but here are a few of my top picks.

ASX dividend-paying shares, such as large-cap companies like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) or mining giant BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), pay their shareholders a 3-4% dividend yield. 

Defensive shares like Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) or Amcor PLC (ASX: AMC) are a solid choice for income-seeking investors. These all yield around the 5% to 6% level (at the time of writing).

For a higher 7% dividend yield, or even above, I'd look at dividend-payers like Shaver Shop Group Ltd (ASX: SSG), IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH), or even a real estate investment trust like Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (ASX: CLW).

The post How much superannuation is needed to target $5,500 per month in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Now they're heading the other way.

The mining giant is down another 1.13% to $60.18 on Monday morning, extending a sell-off that started late last week.

BHP closed at $64.58 last Wednesday, so the stock has dropped around 6.8% in just 3 trading sessions.

Friday did most of the damage, with the shares dropping 4.05% as mining shares were hit by uncertainty around US copper tariffs.

After such a quick pullback, some investors may be wondering whether BHP is starting to look cheap again.

I'm not sure we're there yet.

The rally has still been huge

The first thing I'd like to point out is just how far BHP shares have already run.

Even after the recent fall, the stock is still up around 33% in 2026.

It is now about 13% below its 52-week high of $68.77, reached in late August.

So, while the 6.8% drop looks significant, BHP is coming off a very strong run.

The business itself has also been performing well.

FY26 revenue increased 15% to US$58.8 billion, while underlying EBITDA rose 27% to US$32.9 billion. Net debt fell to US$8.7 billion, and the full-year dividend increased to 172 US cents per share.

Copper has become a large part of the business, generating around 54% of underlying EBITDA last year.

Is BHP actually cheap?

This is where I think things get more interesting.

The average 12-month broker price target tracked by TipRanks is $59.23, around 2% below today's share price.

Of the 15 analysts shown, 13 have a hold rating, with only 1 buy and 1 sell.

There's also a wide range of views. Morgan Stanley has a $68 target, while Freedom Capital Markets is at $66. Jefferies and Bank of America are both sitting at $65.

At the other end, Bernstein has a $44 target.

Would I buy after the fall?

I can see why investors might be tempted to buy after the latest decline.

BHP is still a very profitable business, and its growing exposure to copper gives investors another reason to stay interested.

But there are still a few things to watch, including softer iron ore prices and ongoing labour negotiations at Port Hedland.

At $60.18, I think BHP looks more attractive than it did near $69.

With broker targets clustered close to the current price, I'd still want BHP to fall a little further before buying.

The post Down almost 7% in 3 days, are BHP shares finally good value? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By the end of the week, however, the benchmark had fallen more than 3% to around 8,741 points.

That sharp move may have investors asking an uncomfortable question: are we watching the beginning of a broader stock market crash?

The truth is that nobody knows when the next crash will happen. What history does tell us is that severe market declines are an unavoidable part of investing.

Rather than attempting to predict the next sell-off, I prefer to prepare for one. That means stress-testing my portfolio and asking whether I could remain rational if ASX shares suffered a much steeper decline.

Could you survive a 30% downturn?

Market crashes can seem like distant possibilities when share prices are rising. But investors only need to look back to early 2020 for a reminder of how quickly conditions can change. During the COVID-19 panic, the ASX 200 plunged roughly 30% between January and March.

The next downturn could have an entirely different trigger. Its timing and severity are impossible to know.

So I ask myself a simple question: what would I do if my portfolio, with ASX shares fell 30% tomorrow? Would I panic and sell? Or would I be comfortable holding?

I also consider an even more extreme scenario. How would I react if my portfolio lost 50%?

These aren't merely hypothetical exercises. Investors who haven't considered their tolerance for substantial losses beforehand may be tempted to sell at precisely the wrong moment.

If a 30% or 50% decline would make you sell, it could be worth reassessing your portfolio's risk profile now.

Is your portfolio too concentrated?

Diversification can provide an important buffer against company-specific and sector-wide shocks.

For example, owning several ASX shares doesn't necessarily mean you're well diversified if most of your money is concentrated in a few companies, sectors or economic themes. Investors should consider how much exposure they have to major names such as BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), among others.

Holding businesses across different industries and, where appropriate, different asset classes can help reduce concentration risk.

Do you have an emergency cash buffer?

A market crash becomes much more painful when you need to sell shares to cover an unexpected expense.

Keeping an emergency fund outside your investment portfolio can provide breathing room. It means you're less likely to be forced into selling quality ASX shares simply because you suddenly need cash.

Will you be ready to buy?

A crash isn't necessarily just a threat. It can also create opportunities.

When fear dominates the market, excellent businesses can sometimes become available at substantially lower prices. But taking advantage of those opportunities requires capital.

If every dollar is already invested, investors may have little flexibility when attractive ASX shares go on sale.

Foolish takeaway

Nobody knows when the next crash will arrive or how severe it will be.

That's why I don't think predicting it is the most productive goal. Instead, I'm focusing on knowing my risk tolerance, maintaining sensible diversification, keeping an emergency cash buffer and having a plan for deploying capital.

The goal isn't to predict the crash. It's to make sure you're ready when it comes.

The post Are ASX shares heading for a crash? Here's how I'm preparing appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Tariffs fears have been boosting prices

The copper price has been hitting record highs recently amid fears the US will impose tariffs in a bid to promote more home-grown mining and production.

Reports indicate that traders have been importing copper into the US and building up stockpiles ahead of the rumoured tariffs, helping push prices higher.

But a report from Reuters overnight suggested that the White House was still weighing up the higher costs tariffs could impose on the US' manufacturing sector against the benefits of encouraging more domestic mining.

Reuters quoted a White House official as saying all options remained on the table.

They said:

The administration continues to ​evaluate all options to reshore copper and other critical manufacturing back to the United States.

This has been interpreted by market watchers as suggesting tariffs may not be imposed, leading to sharp falls in the share prices of copper miners.

Among the Australian-listed producers, shares in Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP) fell 9.6%, Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) fell 7.8%, and Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) fell 6.7%.

Shares in BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), which now derives more than half of its earnings from copper, fell 3.7%, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares were off 2.7%.

"No tariff" decision could ease prices

Morgan Stanley said the Reuters report gave slightly more weight to a "no tariff" scenario.  

They added:

Today's article does not constitute a decision but it arguably has driven the market to give slightly more weight to the "no tariff" scenario than before. Copper prices are up around 15% YTD with both benchmarks hitting all time highs in recent days, with much of this year's strength arguably attributable to strong US import demand ahead of potential tariffs. We estimate US excess imports have now exceeded 450 kt YTD, or 2.5-3% of global refined copper demand when annualised. However, if those imports were to slow down, the copper market would feel substantially looser in our view.

Morgan Stanley said the proposed tariffs would be 15% on refined copper from the start of January 2027, potentially rising to 30% in 2028.

The Reuters article confirmed that an update report on the US copper market, due on June 30, had been given to the US President.

Copper demand is expected to remain strong in coming years as the electrification of the economy gains pace.

The post Down almost 10%! Why are ASX copper shares tanking? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) dropped 3.45% to $173.15, and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) lost 2.41% to $17.19.

Overall, mining shares did much of the damage to the index on the day.

The question is whether a sub-US$100 iron ore price will lead to sustained declines for these miners.

Why BHP shares are less exposed than they look

The composition of BHP's earnings has changed.

Copper now accounts for 54% of group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

Iron ore is still enormous, but it is no longer the majority of the business.

The FY26 result showed what that mix produced.

Underlying EBITDA rose 27% to a record US$32.9 billion and underlying attributable profit climbed 30% to US$13.2 billion.

Net operating cash flow grew 17% to US$21.8 billion.

BHP determined US$8.7 billion of dividends, or 172 US cents per share, on a 66% payout ratio.

Net debt finished at US$8.7 billion, around 0.3 times EBITDA.

Management is guiding to 3% to 4% compound annual growth in copper equivalent volumes through to FY35, with capital expenditure steady near US$11 billion in FY27.

What the miners earn at these prices

Fortescue is the most pure iron ore exposure of the three.

The company's FY26 revenue grew 9% to US$17.0 billion and underlying EBITDA rose 9% to US$8.6 billion at a 51% margin.

Free cash flow increased 25% to US$3.2 billion and shipments hit a record 201.3 million tonnes.

The company's Hematite C1 unit cost was US$18.74 per wet metric tonne.

That cost number is one to watch.

At under US$19 a tonne to dig it out, Fortescue still makes very good money with iron ore near US$100.

FY27 guidance does show costs rising to between US$20.50 and US$21.75 a tonne.

What brokers make of BHP shares

Not everyone is convinced after the run.

Gray Perry Wealth Advisers' Blake Halligan has a hold recommendation on the miner.

BHP remains a high-quality diversified miner with large, low-cost assets and increasing exposure to copper.

His reasoning for holding was equally direct.

Commodity-price sensitivity and project execution risks support retaining BHP rather than increasing exposure.

That caution is understandable given the starting point.

Including dividends, BHP has returned about 62% over the past 12 months and reclaimed its position as the largest company on the ASX.

How the three compare today

The valuations tell three different stories.

BHP trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 with a 3.87% fully franked yield after gaining 43% this calendar year.

Rio Tinto sits on 17.2 times earnings with a 3.81% yield and is up 24% year to date.

Fortescue is on 13.6 times with a 6.16% yield, and is down 15% for the year.

Foolish takeaway

Iron ore below US$100 matters most to the company that sells nothing else.

That is Fortescue, and it is also the cheapest of the three by a wide margin.

BHP shares are the highest quality and most expensive, and the copper transition provides valuable diversification benefits.

The post Iron ore is back below US$100. Are BHP and Rio Tinto shares still buys? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.