Cameron McCormack, Senior Portfolio Manager at VanEck, said large caps like BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (ASX: CBA) dominate headlines and exert the greatest influence on the returns of the whole Australian share market. 

Small caps, meanwhile, often attract attention for their higher-risk, higher-reward potential. Many of these companies are in their growth phase, still finding their feet.

Mid-cap companies rarely command the same attention when investors are focused on a small group of market heavyweights. But with developed-market bond yields at their highest levels in more than two decades, earnings expectations for some large-cap companies are becoming harder to sustain, and with mid-caps continuing to trade at a discount to the ASX 50, investors now have reason to take a closer look.

Why a broader market is emerging 

According to the report, markets do not tend to stay this concentrated for long. 

While mega-cap companies have dominated the ASX 200's returns in recent years, history suggests periods where only a small number of stocks are driving the market tend to be the exception rather than the rule.

VanEck suggests that shifts have often emerged during periods of higher interest rates and slower economic growth, when investors become more selective about where earnings growth is likely to come from. 

In these environments, companies able to keep growing earnings even as conditions become more difficult tend to attract greater attention from investors focused on consistency rather than simply market size.

While sector performance has varied, periods of rising rates have often coincided with stronger returns from materials and strategies that spread investments more evenly across the market.

There are already signs that a shift may be emerging again. In the United States, a record share of S&P 500 companies has outperformed the index this year, reversing the unusually narrow leadership that defined much of the past two years.

What about in Australia?

VanEck reinforced that signs of that shift are already beginning to emerge in Australia. 

While large caps have outperformed since February reporting season, smaller companies delivered some of the market's strongest earnings surprises and most positive analyst target revisions. That suggests investors and analysts alike are beginning to see more room for earnings growth and share price improvement.

Importantly, many companies outside the largest stocks are still trading at cheaper valuations than the S&P/ASX 50, even though their earnings outlook has improved.

This matters because markets that rely too heavily on a small group of large companies can become more vulnerable, especially amid rising inflation, higher bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

As a result, ASX mid-cap companies may become increasingly important. They often offer a balance of stability and growth potential, while giving investors broader exposure beyond just the market's biggest names.

How to target ASX mid-caps 

For investors looking to target ASX mid-cap companies, one option to consider is the VanEck S&P/ASX MidCap ETF (ASX: MVE). 

It offers exposure to 50 established ASX-listed mid-cap companies across sectors, including industrials, healthcare, technology, resources and consumer businesses. 

According to VanEck, it provides investors with a diversified exposure to a segment of the market that has historically sat between the defensiveness of large caps and the growth potential of smaller companies.

The post Why ASX mid-cap shares are finally about to have their moment: Expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Diversification is important, but there is also a point where a portfolio can become so crowded that the best ideas barely move the needle.

If I were aiming for $1 million in retirement using ASX 200 shares, I would keep the plan simple. I would try to own around 10 high-quality businesses, invest regularly, reinvest dividends, and give compounding as much time as possible.

Where to start

Let's say an investor starts with $10,000 and adds $500 a month.

If that portfolio returned an average of 9% per annum, it could grow to more than $1 million in around 30 years.

That return is not guaranteed. Share markets do not move in a straight line, and some years can be painful. But I think the example shows why time, consistency, and reinvestment are so powerful.

The investor does not need to find the next tiny stock that rises 20-fold. They need a sensible plan and the discipline to keep going through different market conditions.

Why just 10 ASX 200 shares?

I would not want my retirement plan to depend on one or two companies. That is too much single-stock risk.

But I also do not think I need to own every company on the ASX.

Owning 10 carefully selected ASX 200 shares could give exposure to different sectors, earnings drivers, and growth opportunities without making the portfolio too diluted.

For example, a portfolio could include Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) for banking quality and fully franked dividends, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) for global financial exposure, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) for resources and copper, and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) for retail and industrial strength.

I would also want healthcare exposure through ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), digital infrastructure through Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), property platform exposure through REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA), enterprise software through TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE), and global technology through WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC).

That is not a perfect list for every investor. But it shows the sort of balance I would want.

What I'd look for

The share price is only one part of the decision.

If I were building a retirement portfolio, I would care more about the quality of the business than whether the stock looks cheap on the day I buy it.

I would want companies with strong competitive positions, capable management, durable demand, and the ability to keep reinvesting for growth.

Dividends would also matter. Over decades, reinvested dividends can make a huge difference. Fully franked income from some ASX 200 shares can also be useful, depending on an investor's tax situation.

But I would not build the whole portfolio around yield. A retirement portfolio still needs growth.

Staying the course

The hardest part of this plan would not be choosing the 10 shares. It would be holding them through market falls.

Over 30 years, there will almost certainly be recessions, interest rate scares, earnings disappointments, commodity sell-offs, and company-specific problems.

That is normal. I would review the portfolio regularly, but I would not want to trade it constantly. The aim would be to own strong businesses for long enough that their earnings, dividends, and reinvestment have time to compound.

Foolish takeaway

A $1 million retirement portfolio can sound like a distant target, but it becomes more realistic when the plan is broken down.

I would start with quality, keep the portfolio focused, add money consistently, and let time do its work.

Ten ASX 200 shares will not remove every risk. But if they are chosen carefully and held patiently, I think they could form the backbone of a portfolio capable of building serious retirement wealth.

The post I'd aim for $1 million in retirement buying just 10 ASX 200 shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Among them, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant counts as the biggest stock by market cap on the ASX. A crown it recently reclaimed, and one it looks likely to hold onto for a while, from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).

BHP is also commonly associated with iron ore and copper.

And for good reason.

In the half year ending 31 December, the Aussie mining giant produced 134 million tonnes of iron ore for US$7.5 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).

The half year also saw BHP produce 986,000 tonnes of copper for EBITDA of US$8 billion.

The miner also produces sizeable amounts of coal and potash.

And, of course, BHP shares are widely recognised for the company's reliable, twice yearly fully-franked dividends.

But what the miner isn't well known for is its outperformance on the sustainability front.

And it may be some time yet before that changes.

BHP shares still reliant on diesel

Switching a global mining fleet comprised of thousands of heavy vehicles and drilling equipment from diesel to electric is no easy feat. No matter what Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) Andrew 'Twiggy' Forrest would have you believe.

Which isn't to say that BHP isn't trying.

In 2019, the ASX 200 miner set a goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

And on its website, the company notes:

We know our stakeholders and partners are increasingly focused on our sustainability performance and use it as a key determinant in assessing BHP and our industry. We strive to continuously improve and exceed these expectations.

But speaking at The Australian Financial Review Mining Summit in Perth, Tim Day, BHP's Western Australian iron ore asset president, admitted that the miner's emission slashing goal was taking longer than forecast.

He pointed to the company's giant ore hauling trucks as one of the bigger sticking points.

Day said (quoted by the AFR):

You've actually got to have the skills, you have to redesign entire operations to allow for it, having the charging units, the energy density in the batteries, and it has to be safe for everybody.

While he said the company is making progress on emissions reductions, he said BHP is "not quite ready" to run its entire mining fleet on batteries.

According to Day:

These are big machines, big trucks that we're trying to run on batteries, and we've got a couple of them running around the Pilbara now, but we're trying to work out how to deploy them as fast as we can."

He added, "We do have solar … but we've got to get the diesel answer worked out."

While BHP may be lagging Fortescue on the path to net zero, its stock value has charged ahead of the rival mining company.

Over the past 12 months, the BHP share price has gained 57% while Fortescue shares have gained 39%.

The post Why BHP shares are 'not quite ready' to go green appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

But the decline barely dented gains made recently. May was a strong month for the ASX mining stock.

Despite the latest decline, the shares are still 32% higher for the year-to-date and over 57% higher than this time 12 months ago. BHP shares are still trading close to an all-time high of $62.06 that the mining giant recorded in mid-May.

Now the question is, have BHP shares now reached a ceiling, or is there more to come in June?

What happened to BHP shares in May?

There have been a few tailwinds over the past month pushing the miner's shares to record highs.

A boom in commodities prices and a new non-executive director appointment helped drive the miner's share value upwards.

Investors have rotated back into diversified miners after the price of copper surged close to a multi-year high.

According to Trading Economics, copper futures climbed to an all-time high of over US$6.6 per pound in mid-May.

Stronger investor sentiment for the red metal comes off the back of signs that the US and Iran were moving closer to a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Copper is one of the world's hottest metals right now, with strong demand for usage in electric vehicles, solar panels and data centres. And the demand isn't going away anytime soon.

Around the same time, the miner announced the appointment of Mark Vassella as a Non-Executive Director. Vasella is an industry veteran, having served many years as CEO of BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL). Investors appeared to be thrilled with the news.

The soaring share price also saw the miner regain the crown as the largest stock on the ASX. BHP now has a market capitalization of around $307 billion, according to Market Index.

Should I sell my shares in June?

I think BHP shares have now peaked. I'm not sure that we'll see much more out of the mining giant's shares over the next few months, but given the sustained tailwinds and strong copper demand, there is no sign that the shares will tumble any time soon either.

Analysts seem to agree.

TradingView data shows that 15 out of 18 analysts have a hold rating on BHP shares. The average $57.03 target price implies a potential 6% downside at the time of writing. 

Although forecasts that the shares could increase to a maximum target price of $68.63 imply there is potential for another 14% upside.

The post Should I sell my BHP shares in June? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

While the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giants are increasing their exposure to copper, iron ore will remain a core revenue earner for the foreseeable future.

And the iron ore price has continued to defy bearish analyst expectations of a retrace to US$90 or even US$80 per tonne.

Indeed, the industrial metal topped US$111 per tonne earlier this month and is currently trading north of US$109 per tonne.

Adding in the surging copper price, and we've seen two of three ASX 200 mining stocks smash the benchmark performance this year. (Fortescue shares have struggled this calendar year, in part due to concerns over the miner's ambitious green energy expenditures.)

In 2026, the ASX 200 is down 0.9%.

Over this same time:

• BHP shares are up 34.2%
• Fortescue shares are down 1.0%
• Rio Tinto shares are up 25.8%

Which brings us back to…

Why CMRG matters for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue shares

If you're not familiar with the acronym, CMRG stands for the China Mineral Resources Group.

Formed in 2022, the company – which represents the majority of China's steel mills – is backed by the Chinese government. The aim is to increase the nation's bargaining power over global iron ore prices by centralising purchasing negotiations.

As you may recall, earlier this year, BHP was locked in negotiations with CMRG for a number of months over potentially lower iron ore prices and increased use of renminbi in purchase contracts.

Those negotiations concluded last month.

And BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue shares could suffer a hit to their future earnings if CMRG succeeds in gaining greater influence on global iron ore pricing.

That's according to Tim Day, BHP's Western Australian iron ore asset president, who warned that CMRG will continue to push for lower iron ore prices, thereby increasing the profitability of Chinese steel mills, in future negotiations.

Speaking at The Australian Financial Review Mining Summit in Perth, Day said:

We're through it now, which is the good part, but it will be on again next year … and it is getting more complex [and] will just continue from here.

What does that kind of mean for the Australian iron ore industry in particular? You will see over time that this will continue to play that way, and the power and size of China just have that impact.

The post Buying Rio Tinto, BHP or Fortescue shares? Here's why CMRG matters appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In the first half of FY 2026, copper earnings at BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) exceeded iron ore contributions for the first time in the company's history.

Copper now accounts for more than 50% of group earnings.

BHP is no longer primarily an iron ore company.

And that matters enormously for how investors should think about its valuation.

The share price run has been remarkable

BHP shares are up 34% year to date and 58% over the past twelve months.

This has pushed the share's market cap above $300 billion.

Resultantly, BHP has reclaimed its position as Australia's largest listed company from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).

The run has been driven by copper, which has surged approximately 43% over twelve months to US$13,588 per tonne.

That already exceeds Goldman Sachs' ambitious 2026 target of US$11,200 per tonne.

Why copper demand is not slowing down

Electric vehicles require significantly more copper per unit than petrol cars.

AI data centres demand up to 50,000 tonnes of copper each for wiring, cooling, and grounding.

Grid infrastructure upgrades globally require enormous new copper investment.

These long-term tailwinds compound year after year, and new copper mines take 15 to 20 years to develop.

Supply simply cannot respond quickly enough to meet what the market needs.

BHP plans to grow copper-equivalent production at 3% to 4% per year through 2035, adding to one of the world's most valuable copper portfolios at exactly the right moment.

The company also committed more than US$550 million to expand its Olympic Dam copper mine in October 2025, reinforcing that commitment with capital.

Morgan Stanley is still bullish on BHP shares

After a 56% run, the question investors are asking is obvious: Has the easy money been made?

Morgan Stanley does not think so.

The broker carries an overweight recommendation on BHP shares with a price target of $67.50, implying further upside from current levels.

The bull case rests on copper demand outpacing supply for the foreseeable future, iron ore generating the cash flow to fund growth, and the Jansen potash project adding a third major earnings pillar that most analysts have not yet fully priced in.

But what about the risks?

BHP is a commodity company and commodity prices can fall as fast as they rise.

After a 58% gain, the margin of safety is narrower than it was twelve months ago.

A slowdown in Chinese industrial demand remains the key risk to watch.

Investors buying today are paying for a future that still needs to unfold.

Foolish Takeaway

BHP shares are not cheap.

But the company is in the middle of an identity shift, from iron ore giant to copper-led global miner.

That shift is being driven by forces that are measured in decades, not quarters.

For patient investors who can hold through commodity volatility, BHP shares look like they could continue compounding over the long term.

The post Why BHP shares hitting a fresh all-time high could be just the beginning appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The mining giant ended the session up 1.54% to $61.28.

It has been a huge year already for shareholders. BHP shares are now up around 35% in 2026 and 59% over the past 12 months.

The stock is also trading close to the top of its 52-week range, which runs from $35.52 to $62.72.

So, what has put the ASX mining heavyweight back in focus?

China talks are getting tougher

According to The Australian, BHP's WA iron ore boss, Tim Day, expects talks with China's state-backed China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) to get harder.

CMRG was created by Beijing to give Chinese steel mills more weight when negotiating iron ore deals.

That puts it in a strong position with Australian miners, given China is still the world's biggest buyer of iron ore.

The report said Mr Day believes China now has more ability to push prices lower and secure better terms. He also said BHP had found the recent talks with CMRG difficult.

Chinese media said CMRG secured a 1.8% discount on iron ore from BHP. The same reports said the group also pushed the miner away from a previous index used to set prices.

Why buyers are still backing the rally

The tougher China backdrop hasn't been enough to stop investors buying.

BHP's share price reaction suggests the market is still more focused on the company's scale, earnings power, and exposure to major commodities.

There may also be some relief that the earlier tensions have cooled between BHP and the Asian superpower.

Last year, there were concerns about China's approach to BHP cargoes and how far the standoff could go. The latest comments suggest the talks are still difficult, but they are moving through the usual commercial channels.

The cost pressure isn't going away

Mr Day said BHP is focused on what it can control, including keeping production costs down and improving productivity at its Western Australian operations.

The Pilbara remains one of the world's most important iron ore regions, but it isn't getting cheaper to operate there.

Miners are dealing with higher costs, union pressure, and ongoing demands to invest in lower-emissions equipment.

The Australian also reported that BlackRock portfolio manager Olivia Markham said Australia had lost some focus on productivity and that other places around the world were cheaper to operate.

That is the balance investors are now weighing.

BHP shares have had a massive run, and the market is still backing the stock. But the company is also facing tougher customers, a higher-cost operating base, and pressure to keep its Pilbara assets competitive.

The post BHP shares near 52-week high, but China just made things more complicated appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Then came the federal budget, and details of proposed changes to the capital gains tax (CGT).

People already knew the Federal Government was considering CGT changes for property investments to improve housing affordability.

What they didn't expect was CGT changes on all asset classes, including ASX shares and businesses.

That changes the game, according to some experts.

CGT changes magnify importance of yield

Some experts reckon higher taxes on capital gains will likely amplify the appeal of yield over growth for some investors.

Private wealth and investment advisory firm, Medallion Financial Group, said:

At a high level, the changes tilt the playing field toward yield. If a larger portion of capital gains is taxed away, the after-tax return profile of growth assets; equities, start-ups, and expansionary investments becomes less compelling.

This might enhance the appeal of ASX dividend shares, or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

ASX dividend shares deliver a much higher yield than international shares, but they aren't what they used to be.

Historically, income investors have relied on ASX 200 bank and mining shares to deliver generous dividend yields.

But the average dividend yield for the ASX 200 has fallen below 3.5%.

And this may start looking a little weak to income investors, given risk-free savings deposit rates have now risen above 5.5%.

Savings deposit interest rates

Savings deposit rates are not only attractive now, they're likely to go even higher given expectations of further rate rises this year.

Some examples in the market today include a 5.75% ongoing but conditional savings rate offered by Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) to customers aged 18 to 34 via its Westpac Life product.

ING offers a 5.5% ongoing but conditional rate via its Savings Maximiser product.

These are not short-term intro savings rates that last only a few months.

They are ongoing, everyday interest rates that apply as long as you meet certain conditions every month, such as increasing your balance by a certain amount.

Those yields are certainly appealing, but here's the thing.

If you're a long-term investor, you are still likely to do better with ASX dividend shares over savings, even if you pay a bit more CGT.

This is because ASX dividend shares offer both capital growth and yield.

Savings accounts just deliver yield (which inflation then eats into as well).

So, remaining invested in assets that also deliver reliable growth over the long term is protective.

The following chart shows the current trailing dividend yields of the top 10 ASX 200 shares by market capitalisation.

As you can see, some stocks have dividend yields above today's savings deposit rates, while some are below.

And nine out of 10 have delivered solid average annual capital growth over the past five years.

Even if you pay more tax on gains in the future, growth plus yield still looks to be a compelling combination, depending on your goals.

Food for thought.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares: Dividend yields and capital growth

The post How do ASX dividend shares compare to savings deposit rates today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The miner's shares are down 0.2% at $60 a piece in early morning trade on Tuesday. The stock is now 31% higher for the year to date and 56% higher than 12 months ago.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has tumbled 0.49% this morning, with over half of the companies in the index falling into the red.

Why are BHP shares catching attention this week?

BHP shares hit a fresh record high on Friday last week after investors rotated back into diversified miners after the price of copper surged close to a multi-year high.

According to Trading Economics, copper futures climbed to around US$6.4 per pound on Monday, reaching their highest level in more than a week. Stronger investor sentiment comes off the back of signs that the US and Iran were moving closer to a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the miner's climate policy is generating headlines this week. The mining giant has reportedly delayed billions of dollars in Pilbara decarbonization projects, according to the Guardian. 

In 2019, the miner pledged to reduce emissions from its operations, largely from energy and diesel use at its mines, by 30% by 2030.

It also sought to curtail indirect emissions – from the use of its iron ore and coal by others – which, at that stage, were equivalent to pollution from roughly 126m cars.

But, a leaked document outlines the company's latest plans to decarbonise its network of Pilbara mines, power plants, trains, and diesel truck fleets that make up its Western Australian iron ore division, the Guardian explains. 

"The urgency for BHP to source renewables had diminished", it said. BHP was now claiming the plan it had devised to hit net zero in the Pilbara by 2050 had a "low probability of success," the Guardian reports.

What's next for BHP shares?

It looks like BHP shares have now reached a ceiling. 

Analysts are mostly reserved about the outlook for the mining giant over the next 12 months.

Market Index brokers have a hold rating on BHP shares and tip a 2% downside to an average target price of $58.77.

The data is similar on TradingView. Out of 19 analysts, 14 have a hold rating on the mining stock. Another four rate the shares as a strong buy, and 1 rates them as a sell.

The average $57.36 target price implies a potential 4% downside at the time of writing. But some think the shares could crash 34% to $39.67, and others think the stock can still climb another 15% to $69.03 within the next 12 months.

The post Why is everyone talking about BHP shares this week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At $59.75, the mining giant is trading well above where it was earlier in the year, and I can understand why some investors may be wondering whether the easy money has already been made.

I do not think BHP looks like a screaming bargain after its rise. But if the question is whether it is still a good share to buy and hold, my answer is yes.

A different type of miner

BHP is often thought of as an iron ore giant, and that is fair.

Iron ore has been the company's earnings engine for many years. Its Pilbara operations remain among the best mining assets in the world, with scale, quality, infrastructure, and cost advantages that are difficult to replicate.

That gives BHP a strong cash flow base when commodity markets are supportive.

But I think the more interesting part of the story today is what BHP could become over the next decade.

This is no longer just a simple iron ore income play. BHP has been reshaping itself around commodities that could become increasingly important in a changing global economy.

Copper sits at the centre of that.

Why copper changes the equation

Copper is used across electricity networks, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres, industrial equipment, and construction.

The world is going to need a lot more of it if electrification and energy infrastructure spending keep growing.

At the same time, copper supply is not easy to bring on quickly. New mines take years to approve, fund, build, and ramp up. Existing mines can face declining grades, higher costs, water constraints, community opposition, and political risk.

That creates an attractive setup for established producers.

BHP is already one of the world's largest copper producers, which gives it a strong position if prices remain elevated over the long term.

BHP also has its Jansen potash project in Canada. This will not transform the business overnight, but I like the strategic logic. Potash gives BHP exposure to fertiliser demand and global food production, which is a different driver from iron ore or copper.

What about the valuation?

The main reason for caution is the share price.

After strong gains, I would not necessarily go all-in at once. A staged approach may make more sense, especially for investors who already have resources exposure.

But I still think BHP deserves a place in a long-term portfolio.

Morgan Stanley also appears positive. A recent note reportedly put an overweight recommendation on BHP shares with a $67.50 price target. Compared with the current share price of $59.75, that suggests analysts there still see upside from here.

Foolish takeaway

BHP shares are not as cheap as they were.

That makes position sizing and patience important.

But I still think this is one of the best ASX mining shares to buy and hold. The iron ore business remains a powerful cash generator, copper gives BHP exposure to a long-term supply squeeze, and potash adds another future growth option.

For investors willing to accept commodity volatility, I think BHP shares remain a buy at current levels.

The post Is now a good time to buy and hold BHP shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The US dollar index has fallen more than 6% since January 2026, reflecting growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability, trade policy uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate normalisation.

For BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), a weaker US dollar is a powerful earnings tailwind, and it is blowing firmly in their favour right now.

Why the US dollar matters so much

The mechanism is straightforward but powerful.

Global commodities including iron ore, copper, and aluminium are priced in US dollars on international markets.

When the US dollar weakens, those commodities become cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which tends to stimulate demand and push prices higher.

The US dollar index has fallen more than 8% since January 2026, reaching its lowest level since 2022, as concerns about US fiscal sustainability and trade policy uncertainty have accelerated the decline.

The impact on commodity prices has been immediate and significant.

Copper has risen to trade above US$13,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, a level not seen in recent history.

Iron ore has recovered above US$100 per tonne, supported by fresh buying from Chinese steel mills amid depleting steel inventories.

While a weaker US dollar also tends to strengthen the Australian dollar, partially offsetting the AUD earnings benefit for local miners, the net effect has historically been positive when commodity demand remains robust.

Current demand conditions across copper, iron ore, and lithium are among the strongest in years.

BHP

BHP is arguably the best-positioned of the three to benefit from the current environment, given its growing exposure to copper, the commodity most directly tied to the electrification and AI infrastructure megatrends driving demand.

The weaker US dollar has amplified the price gains in copper that were already being driven by structural demand from AI data centres, EV production, and grid infrastructure.

BHP reported a 31% increase in its average realised copper price to US$5.47 per pound in its March quarter update, a direct reflection of both the commodity price rally and the currency tailwind.

UBS recently reiterated a hold rating on BHP with a price target of $52, noting the company's fundamental quality while acknowledging near-term iron ore price headwinds.

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto benefits from the weak US dollar through its diversified commodity exposure spanning iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium, all of which are priced in US dollars on global markets.

The company's share price has risen as the combination of a weaker dollar, Chinese stimulus expectations, and rising copper prices drove a broad-based re-rating of the diversified mining sector.

Furthermore, Rio's $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, completed in early 2026, adds a further USD-priced commodity to its portfolio at precisely the moment the lithium price is recovering.

Lithium prices have risen enormously year to date in 2026, and with the majority of that revenue denominated in US dollars, a weaker greenback amplifies the AUD earnings contribution from Rio's rapidly growing lithium business.

Rio maintains a 60% payout ratio dividend policy, meaning higher earnings from commodity tailwinds flow through directly and predictably to shareholder distributions.

Fortescue

Fortescue offers the most leveraged and concentrated play on the weak US dollar theme among the three, given its near-total dependence on iron ore revenues.

Iron ore remains priced in US dollars, and every one dollar decline in the US dollar index tends to support higher iron ore prices as Chinese steel mills, who buy in yuan, face lower effective costs.

Fortescue shares have risen in the past year, reflecting both the iron ore price recovery and growing investor appreciation for its green energy ambitions under the Fortescue Energy division.

The company maintains a dividend payout policy of 50% to 80% of net profit after tax, with dividends paid fully franked twice per year.

This means that the current commodity and currency tailwinds should flow through to shareholder distributions when Fortescue reports its full-year results in August 2026.

For income-focused investors, that combination of a recovering iron ore price and a weaker US dollar amplifying AUD earnings is an attractive backdrop.

Foolish Takeaway

A weaker US dollar is not a guaranteed tailwind for Australian miners.

If it is accompanied by slowing global growth or Chinese demand weakness, the commodity price benefit can be offset quickly.

However, in the current environment, where structural demand from AI infrastructure and electrification underpins copper, where lithium is recovering, and where iron ore supply constraints remain intact, the weak US dollar looks more like a meaningful earnings amplifier than a warning sign.

For long-term investors in BHP, Rio, and Fortescue, the currency backdrop in 2026 is about as favourable as it gets.

The post Why a weak US dollar could be the best thing that happens to ASX resource stocks in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's a question I was asked this past week.

And one I didn't have a ready answer for.

So, I did a little digging into how the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giants have performed since mid-May 2021.

Here's what I found, bearing in mind that the S&P/ASX 200 Gross Total Return Index (ASX: XJT) – which includes all cash dividends reinvested on the ex-dividend date – is up 49.2% over the past five years.

(*Note, all price figures are as at late morning trade on Friday, 22 May. Calculations are made assuming a full $10,000 invested in each ASX 200 mining stock.)

Rio Tinto, Fortescue, or BHP shares?

In no particular order, we'll kick off with Rio Tinto.

Five years ago, on 21 May 2021, you could have picked up Rio Tinto shares for $122.12 apiece. On Friday, those same shares were changing hands for $184.48.

That represents a gain of 51.1%.

But let's not forget those all-important dividends.

If you bought and held onto those Rio Tinto shares for the past five years, you'd have received the last 10 fully-franked dividend payouts.

According to my trusty calculator, that equates to a total dividend payout of $40.09 a share.

If we add that back into Friday's share price, then the accumulated value of the Rio Tinto shares you bought five years ago comes out to $224.57 a share, or a gain of 83.9%.

That would have seen your $10,000 investment grow to $18,389 today, with potential tax benefits from those franking credits.

Turning to BHP, five years ago, the Aussie mining giant was trading for $42.52 a share. On Friday, BHP shares were swapping hands for $59.82 each, for a five-year gain of 40.1%.

As for those fully-franked BHP dividends, since 21 May 2021, you have seen 10 of those passive income payouts land in your bank account, totalling $14.92 a share.

Adding that back into BHP's recent share price, the accumulated value of those BHP shares is now worth $74.74 each. That's a gain of 75.8%. And it would have grown your $10,000 investment into $17,578 today.

Finally, five years ago, Fortescue shares were trading for $22.30. On Friday, shares were trading for $21.63. That's a loss of 3%, without counting the dividends.

Now, if we add in the last 10 fully-franked dividend payouts, totalling $9.62 a share, then the accumulated value of Fortescue shares bought on 21 May 2021 is now worth $31.25 each.

Demonstrating the importance of those dividend payments, that equates to a gain of 40.1%, or enough to turn your $10,000 investment into $14,013 today.

And the winner is…

Rio Tinto shares narrowly edge out BHP shares as the better investment over the past five years, with Fortescue coming in a distant third.

The post Invested $10,000 in Rio Tinto, Fortescue or BHP shares 5 years ago? Guess which one has gained the most appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That means ASX dividend shares may become more interesting than growth stocks if the CGT changes get through Parliament.

In a recent newsletter, private wealth and investment advisory firm, Medallion Financial Group, said:

At a high level, the changes tilt the playing field toward yield. If a larger portion of capital gains is taxed away, the after-tax return profile of growth assets; equities, start-ups, and expansionary investments becomes less compelling.

In contrast, income streams such as dividends retain their relative appeal, particularly where they are franked.

The most reliable dividend yields come from ASX 200 large-cap shares.

Large caps have a minimum market capitalisation of $10 billion. They are our biggest and most established listed companies.

They typically offer high dividend payout ratios because they are long-standing, well-established businesses with reliable profits.

At the top of the ASX 200 today is a mix of bank shares, mining shares, property shares, and others.

Let's take a look at the current trailing dividend yields of the top 10 ASX 200 shares today.

Dividend yields

Things to consider

A company's trailing dividend yield is calculated by dividing its total dividends (usually two) paid over the past 12 months by the current share price and multiplying by 100.

This means trailing dividend yields are based on the previous year's income and do not account for this year's market conditions.

For example, the impact of the global oil shock, which is raising input costs for many companies right now, is not reflected in current trailing dividend yields. Those rising costs today may reduce the dividend amounts some companies can pay over the next year.

So, use trailing dividend yields as a guide, not a guarantee, of future dividend income.

The post Thinking about dividend yields? Here's how much the top 10 ASX 200 shares pay appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That is not hard to understand. The Big Australian is one of the world's largest mining companies, has exposure to major commodities such as iron ore and copper, and has rewarded shareholders with some very large dividends over the years.

The BHP dividend

The BHP dividend can move around more than those of many defensive income shares.

This is because its earnings are heavily influenced by commodity prices, exchange rates, operating costs, and global demand conditions.

But that has not stopped investors from being drawn to the stock. When times are good, BHP can generate enormous cash flows. And because its dividends are usually fully franked, they can be particularly attractive to Australian investors seeking income.

So, how big could the BHP dividend be in 2027?

BHP dividend forecasts

Based on current consensus forecasts, BHP is expected to pay fully franked dividends of $1.91 per share in FY 2026.

After that, the market is expecting the mining giant to pay a slightly lower dividend of $1.80 per share in FY 2027.

This means that, based on the latest BHP share price of $59.75, investors would be looking at a forward fully franked dividend yield of approximately 3% for FY 2027.

Looking a little further ahead, the market is then forecasting a dividend of $1.95 per share in FY 2028. That would represent a fully franked dividend yield of approximately 3.3%.

These dividend yields are not as high as some income investors may have seen from BHP in recent times, but that's because its shares have been very strong performers and recently reached a record high.

In addition, investors should remember that these are only forecasts. If iron ore or copper prices move materially, BHP's earnings and dividends could look quite different by the time FY 2027 arrives.

Should you buy BHP shares?

BHP remains a high-quality mining giant with world-class assets and exposure to long-term demand themes, particularly through copper and the minerals needed for electrification and infrastructure.

However, after a strong run in its share price, many analysts appear to believe the stock is broadly fair value at current levels.

Morgan Stanley is more positive. Earlier this month, the broker put an overweight rating and $67.50 price target on BHP shares.

That implies potential upside of approximately 13% from where BHP ended the week.

The post How big will the BHP dividend be in 2027? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Building a meaningful ASX share portfolio does not require a large starting balance. For many investors, the more realistic path is to start small, invest regularly, and allow compounding to do the heavy lifting over time.

Even $100 a month can make a noticeable difference when it is invested consistently.

The key is patience. A $20,000 portfolio will not happen overnight. But with time, discipline, and sensible diversification, small monthly investments can grow into something far more substantial.

The power of regular investing

Investing $100 a month may not sound like much at first. Over a year, that adds up to $1,200. Over five years, it is $6,000 before any investment returns are included.

The benefit of investing monthly is that it builds a habit. It also means investors are buying through different market conditions. Sometimes prices will be high, sometimes they will be lower. This is known as dollar-cost averaging.

Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses. But it can remove some of the pressure of trying to pick the perfect moment to invest.

Instead of waiting for the market to look attractive, investors can steadily put money to work in ASX shares or ETFs that suit their goals and risk tolerance.

How long could it take?

Let's assume an investor puts $100 a month into the ASX and earns an average annual return of 10%.

That return is broadly in line with long-term share market averages, though it is important to remember that it is not guaranteed. Some years will be much stronger, while others could be negative.

Based on that assumption, it would take around 10 years to build a portfolio worth approximately $20,000.

What could investors buy?

One simple approach is to use ASX exchange traded funds (ETFs). These can provide exposure to hundreds or even thousands of stocks in a single investment.

For example, a broad Australian shares ETF could provide exposure to major local companies like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), while a global shares ETF could add international diversification.

Growth-focused investors may also consider ETFs that provide exposure to areas such as technology, healthcare, or quality global companies. This could mean funds such as Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK) or VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat AUD ETF (ASX: MOAT).

Individual ASX shares can also play a role, but diversification becomes especially important when starting with smaller monthly amounts. Putting too much money into one company can increase risk if that business disappoints.

The aim is to build a sensible collection of assets that can grow over time.

Staying the course

The biggest challenge may not be finding $100 a month. It may be staying invested when markets fall.

Share markets can be volatile, and there will be periods when portfolio values decline. That is normal. For long-term investors, those periods can also provide opportunities to buy at lower prices.

Foolish takeaway

A $20,000 ASX share portfolio is an achievable goal for investors who start small and stay consistent.

With $100 a month, a long-term mindset, and diversified investments, investors can start building wealth.

The post How to build a $20,000 ASX share portfolio with $100 a month appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This is great news for investors looking for a stable fund which pays a reliable income, and offers long-term growth potential.

I've previously written about monthly-paying ASX dividend stocks such as BetaShares Dividend Harvester Active ETF (ASX: HVST), Plato Income Maximiser Ltd (ASX: PL8), and Metrics Master Income Trust (ASX: MXT). They all offer a reliable monthly income at an attractive rate.

But I think the BetaShares Australian Top 20 Equity Yield Maximiser Fund (ASX: YMAX) trumps them all.

Here's why.

How does YMAX work?

The Betashares YMAX is an ASX-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) which targets the 20 largest Australian companies listed on the ASX.

The fund uses what's called a 'covered call' strategy. This is expected to generate an income significantly exceeding the dividend yields of the underlying share portfolio over the medium term. 

It generally offers lower volatility than a direct investment in the underlying shares. It does not aim to track an index.

What does its portfolio look like?

The ASX dividend stock invests in a portfolio that provides exposure to the largest 20 blue-chip Australian shares listed on the ASX, combined with call options written on the securities in the share portfolio.

The portfolio is passively managed. This means the weighting of each security generally mirrors the weighting of the security within the Solactive Australia 20 Index.

The share portfolio also aims to generate dividends, franking credits, and capital growth. 

At the time of writing, the fund is heavily weighted into the financial sector (47%) and the materials sector (21.4%). 

And as of the 30th of April, the top two holdings in its portfolio are Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) at 17.5% of the portfolio, and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) which accounts for 16%. Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) at 8%, and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), which around for 7.4% of the portfolio, complete the top four.

ANZ Banking Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) make up the remainder of the top 10 exposures in the fund.

What ASX dividends does the stock pay its shareholders?

YMAX has paid quarterly dividends to its shareholders since April 2013. But in January this year, its payment frequency was amended to monthly.

As at 30th April 2026, the YMAX ETF has a 12-month gross distribution yield of 9%. It's 12-month distribution yield is 7.6%. The total 12-month franking level is 41.2%.

The fund most recently paid a $0.047623 per unit dividend to shareholders on Monday this week. This translates to an annual distribution return of 8.26%.

The post Here's a 9% ASX dividend stock to consider for a monthly passive income appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Over this week, we have looked at the best performing funds from ETF giants iShares and Vanguard.

Today, let's examine the best performing ASX ETFs from Betashares. 

Together, these three providers account for almost two thirds of all funds under management. 

Betashares Energy Transition Metals ETF (ASX: XMET)

This ASX ETF has benefited from the recent mining boom being driven by critical minerals tied to electrification, power generation, and energy security.

It has risen 117% in the last 12 months. 

This fund provides exposure to a portfolio of global companies in the Energy Transition Metals ('ETMs') industry. ETMs are raw materials that are essential to the transition to a less carbon-intensive economy.

XMET provides exposure to global producers of copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, manganese, silver and rare earth elements. 

Many of these commodities rallied due to growing electricity demand from AI infrastructure, grid expansion, EV production and supply shortages. 

Strong performance from major holdings such as BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Pls Group (ASX: PLS) boosted returns as investors focused on securing strategic mineral supply chains. 

At the same time, broader inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions and government spending on clean-energy infrastructure helped drive money into resource-focused and thematic ETFs. 

Betashares Capital – Asia Technology Tigers ETF (ASX: ASIA)

Another emerging theme over the last year has been the outperformance of Asian equities. 

This ASX ETF from Betashares aims to track the performance of an index (before fees and expenses) comprising the 50 largest technology and online retail stocks in Asia (ex-Japan). 

It has risen 82% in the last 12 months. 

Investors have shifted into Asian technology and emerging-market growth stocks, particularly those linked to artificial intelligence, semiconductors and digital infrastructure. 

This ETF holds major Asian tech companies such as Taiwan and Korean chipmakers, Chinese internet firms and other fast-growing regional technology businesses that benefited from the global AI boom and improving earnings growth.

Betashares Global Gold Miners ETF – Currency Hedged (ASX: MNRS)

This mining focussed fund from Betashares has risen an impressive 78% in the last year. 

This has been influenced by several factors. 

Firstly, gold prices surged to record highs over the past year. This dramatically boosted the profits and share prices of global gold-mining companies held inside the ETF.

Investors rotated into defensive sectors as global growth concerns and market volatility increased, and gold miners are often treated as a hedge during uncertain periods.

However it's worth noting this growth has slowed in 2026. 

The post The top 3 Betashares ASX ETFs over the past year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise again

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday following a positive night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 42 points or 0.5% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.55%, the S&P 500 rose 0.15%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% higher.

Oil prices ease

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) will be on watch on Friday after a subdued night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.65% to US$97.59 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.65% to US$104.35 a barrel. Traders were selling oil amid optimism that a US-Iran peace deal could be on the horizon.

BHP and Rio Tinto on watch

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares will be on watch on Friday. Overnight their NYSE-listed shares pushed higher, which may bode well for today's session. The catalyst for this appears to have been another rise in copper prices. The base metal is now up almost 10% since the start of May.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a relatively positive finish to the week after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.15% to US$4,542.2 an ounce. Falling oil prices have reduced interest rate hike bets and boosted the gold price.

Buy Energy One shares

Energy One Ltd (ASX: EOL) shares could be in the buy zone according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the software company's shares with a trimmed price target of $17.10. It said: "We believe AI displacement concerns are unwarranted with EOL as they serve a deeply regulated and sticky industry with mission-critical solutions. Tailwinds remain regarding growing complexity in energy markets, surging European trading volumes and increasing distributed energy resources. These trends reinforce the strength of EOL's positioning as a one-stop-shop provider of software and services, rather than a collection of individual tools. We remain attracted to the company's strong growth profile, expanding margins and impressive SaaS metrics."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The two ASX titans aren't in direct competition with each other. But investors have been watching their market caps closely this year as they vie to remain the highest-valued company trading on Australia's stock exchange.

Here's what's been happening.

BHP takes a commanding lead over CBA shares

On 27 January, BHP reclaimed the title of biggest ASX share from CBA. This came after the big four ASX 200 bank had enjoyed that crown for almost 18 months.

The crown then got handed back and forth a few times over the following weeks as one stock outperformed the other.

But BHP now looks to be cementing its lead, with the BHP share price buoyed by strong iron ore prices (currently at around US$110 per tonne). Meanwhile, copper prices (currently at US$13,411 per tonne) have surged by 45% over the past 12 months.

At the same time, CBA shares are under pressure. That's partly due to ongoing analyst warnings on CBA's overvaluation relative to its peers. And investors are also increasingly concerned over Australia's economy potentially leading to lower home loans with higher defaults.

Connecting the dots, BHP shares have gained 48.52% over the past year, while CBA shares have fallen 5.68% during this time.

At market close on Wednesday, this saw BHP commanding a market cap of $291.32 billion compared to CBA's market cap of just over $270 billion.

What are the experts saying about CommBank and BHP shares?

Charles Casey, a portfolio manager at Solaris, has a decidedly bullish outlook on BHP shares.

According to Casey (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

The diverging performance is led by the outlook for earnings and dividends, which is improving for BHP and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) but is deteriorating for Commonwealth Bank, and that's why we saw such a big derating in the valuation applied to CBA last week.

If you're trading to perfection like CBA was, there's just no room for disappointment.

As for why BHP could continue to outpace CBA shares, Casey said:

BHP is really well-placed at the moment to keep deleveraging and growing its earnings and dividends into August. BHP is one of our key holdings, and we've been very underweight CBA…

With the copper price high, this talk of electrification and obviously the building out of data centres, it looks like demand will stay strong for a while.

Regal Partners' Phil King also sounded a bullish note on ASX mining stocks like BHP (quoted by the AFR).

King noted:

The next five or 10 years look extremely exciting for the mining sector. There's going to be very little new supply in commodities like copper over the next five years. I don't think the outlook for the mining industry has ever looked better.

With King speculating that global copper prices could increase by another fivefold over the coming five to 10 years, he said BHP shares could surge past $100 within the next few years.

"Even then, we'd still be happy to be long," he said.

The post Why CBA shares might never retake the biggest ASX stock crown from BHP appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both are high-quality businesses. Both have world-class assets. Both can generate huge cash flows when commodity markets are favourable.

I would be happy to own either in a long-term portfolio.

But if I had to choose just one today, I would pick BHP shares.

The case for Rio Tinto shares

Rio Tinto remains one of the strongest resources companies in the world.

Its Pilbara iron ore operations are among the best mining assets on the planet. They are large, low cost, and capable of producing enormous cash flow when iron ore prices are supportive.

That makes Rio Tinto a serious dividend stock when the cycle is working in its favour.

I also like the fact that Rio Tinto has been trying to broaden its future growth profile. The company has exposure to aluminium, copper, and lithium, as well as iron ore. That gives it more than one way to benefit from long-term demand for materials used in infrastructure, electrification, and energy transition.

For income investors, Rio Tinto can be very appealing. When profits are strong, the dividends can be significant.

The issue is that I think Rio still feels more exposed to the iron ore cycle than BHP. Iron ore can be an outstanding commodity when demand is strong, but it can also be unforgiving when prices fall or China's property and infrastructure activity disappoint.

That does not make Rio a bad buy. I just think BHP has a slightly stronger mix for the next decade.

Why I prefer BHP shares

BHP also has a world-class iron ore business. That gives it the same kind of cash flow engine that investors want from a major miner.

But I think BHP's copper exposure gives it the edge.

Copper is one of the commodities I am most positive on over the next decade. It is needed for electricity networks, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres, industrial activity, and broader electrification.

I also think copper supply will struggle to keep up with demand.

New mines can take years to approve and build. Existing mines face declining grades, rising costs, and political risk in some regions. That creates a very attractive setup for large producers with existing copper assets.

This is where BHP looks especially strong to me.

If copper prices remain elevated over the long term, BHP could be one of the best-placed miners on the ASX to benefit. Its scale, balance sheet, and asset base give it options that many smaller miners simply do not have.

The potash option

BHP also has another long-term growth lever in potash.

Its Jansen project gives the company exposure to fertiliser demand and global food production. This will not transform earnings overnight, but I like the strategic direction.

Potash is different from iron ore and copper, which adds another layer to BHP's commodity mix. Over time, it could make the business more diversified and less reliant on one or two major earnings drivers.

That is important when thinking in five-year or 10-year terms.

Foolish takeaway

I think both BHP and Rio Tinto are ASX mining shares worth buying.

Rio Tinto offers a powerful iron ore franchise, attractive dividends, and useful exposure to commodities beyond iron ore.

But BHP wins for me.

Its iron ore business remains excellent, its copper exposure looks very valuable, and its potash expansion adds another long-term growth option.

The post BHP shares vs Rio Tinto shares: Which miner looks better? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.