A 10% share price gain over 12 months is never guaranteed.
But when I look across the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), there are a few shares where I think earnings growth, improving business performance, or a more attractive starting valuation could support that sort of return.
These are three ASX 200 shares I would be watching.
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Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)
Breville is the first one on my list. The appliance maker has built a strong global business around premium kitchen products, particularly coffee machines, and I think there is still plenty of room to expand internationally.
What I like is that Breville does not need to rely on one market for growth. It has established positions in Australia, North America, and Europe, while newer markets can provide another leg over time.
There is also a product development element to the story. Breville has consistently invested in new appliances and higher-value products, which can help support revenue growth without depending entirely on geographic expansion.
If the company continues to grow earnings and make progress across its international markets, I think a gain of more than 10% over the next year is achievable.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)
Treasury Wine Estates is a very different proposition. The wine company owns a collection of premium brands, led by Penfolds, which gives it exposure to consumers willing to pay considerably more for higher-end products.
For me, the opportunity is about getting more value from those brands across international markets. A stronger contribution from Asia could be particularly important, while the company also has room to keep growing its premium wine portfolio in markets such as the United States.
Of course, wine is not an easy category. Consumer demand can fluctuate, inventory needs to be managed carefully, and international markets can change quickly.
But that also means sentiment can move sharply when trading improves. If Treasury Wine Estates can show that earnings momentum is strengthening, I think the market could become noticeably more positive on the ASX 200 share over the next 12 months.
ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD)
ResMed is my third pick. The sleep treatment company operates in a large global market, with millions of people affected by sleep apnoea and many more still undiagnosed or untreated.
That gives ResMed a long runway even before considering further product innovation and improvements in diagnosis.
I also like the earnings outlook. Consensus forecasts point to earnings per share (EPS) increasing from $1.54 in FY26 to $1.69 in FY27, $1.85 in FY28, and $2.02 in FY29.
That works out to annualised earnings growth of roughly 9.5% across the three years. For a global healthcare leader, I think that is a healthy pace.
If ResMed delivers close to those expectations and sentiment towards the shares improves, I can easily see scope for the share price to rise more than 10% over the next year.
Foolish takeaway
I would not buy any shares purely because I think they can rise 10% in 12 months.
But Breville, Treasury Wine Estates, and ResMed all have business-specific reasons that I think could support a stronger share price from here.
For me, that makes all three worth considering today.
