Buying an S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share becomes a little more serious when selling is taken off the table.
If I knew I had to hold an investment for the next decade, I would want businesses that could keep finding new ways to grow long after the initial purchase.
These three ASX 200 shares would make my shortlist.
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Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)
Xero would be one of my first choices.
Its accounting software has become an important part of how millions of small businesses manage invoicing, payroll, payments, reporting, and other financial tasks.
I like the position that creates. Once a business has moved its financial records onto Xero, connected its accountant, and added other applications, changing platforms can become increasingly inconvenient.
That can help Xero retain customers while gradually offering them more services.
The company also still has a surprisingly large market left to target. Xero had around 4.9 million customers in FY26, while management has previously pointed to a global addressable market of around 100 million small businesses.
Payments, payroll, artificial intelligence, and its acquisition of Melio could also allow Xero to play a larger role in the financial lives of those customers.
Over 10 years, I think there is plenty of room for both the customer base and the amount each customer spends with Xero to increase.
HUB24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)
HUB24 would give me exposure to another long-term change happening in Australia.
The ASX 200 share provides investment and administration technology used by financial advisers to manage client portfolios.
What I like here is the opportunity for more wealth to move onto modern platforms as advisers look for better technology, greater flexibility, and more efficient ways to manage client money.
HUB24 can benefit as its existing advisers bring more client assets onto the platform, while new advisers provide another source of growth.
The wider group also owns businesses including Class and myprosperity, giving it technology that reaches accountants and wealth-management clients beyond the core investment platform.
Australia's pool of superannuation and investment savings should continue growing for many years. I think HUB24 has a good chance of capturing an increasing share of the activity surrounding that wealth.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)
Macquarie would be my third ASX 200 share pick.
The company has built businesses across asset management, infrastructure, commodities, energy, financial markets, advisory, and banking.
That gives Macquarie plenty of places to look for opportunities as the world changes.
Over the coming decade, enormous amounts of capital will likely be required for energy infrastructure, transport, digital networks, and other major projects. Macquarie has spent decades building the expertise and relationships needed to participate in those areas.
Its earnings can be up and down, and some years will inevitably be much stronger than others.
But if I were forced to ignore the share price for 10 years, that would bother me less. I would be backing Macquarie's ability to keep finding attractive opportunities and allocating capital effectively over a full market cycle.
Foolish takeaway
A 10-year restriction would change the way I thought about buying ASX 200 shares.
Short-term catalysts would become far less important. I would spend much more time asking whether the business could still have a larger customer base, stronger competitive position, and higher earnings a decade from now.
For Xero, HUB24, and Macquarie, I think the answer could be yes.
