Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) has had a strong run, but I still think there is a good reason to look at the shares today.
For me, the investment case is increasingly about what the business could look like several years from now.
At around $178.04, I would be happy to buy.
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I am comfortable with the price
According to CommSec, consensus earnings per share forecasts stand at $12.07 in FY26 and $12.04 in FY27.
Clearly, analysts are not expecting much earnings growth in the near term.
But at the current share price, Rio Tinto is trading at just under 15 times forecast earnings. I think that is a reasonable multiple for a global miner with several major assets that could become increasingly important over the years ahead.
Mining earnings rarely move smoothly. Commodity prices can rise and fall considerably, so I would not expect Rio Tinto to deliver predictable annual growth like a software company.
Instead, I am interested in whether today's investments can leave it producing more of the commodities the world needs in 5 or 10 years.
The business is gradually changing
Iron ore remains enormously important to Rio Tinto, but I think copper could become a much bigger part of how investors view the company.
Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia is central to that opportunity.
The underground operation is still ramping up and is expected to turn Oyu Tolgoi into one of the world's largest copper mines. That gives Rio Tinto a substantial source of additional production without needing copper prices alone to drive future growth.
I like the timing. Copper is needed across electricity grids, renewable energy, data centres, electric vehicles, and wider electrification. Developing major new mines can take many years, which could make high-quality existing and emerging supply increasingly valuable.
Rio Tinto also has other copper opportunities in its pipeline, giving the company more than one potential route to increase its exposure.
For me, this longer-term story is more important than whether earnings move slightly higher or lower between FY26 and FY27.
Investors are being paid along the way
There is also a healthy income component. Consensus forecasts are for fully-franked dividends of $6.64 per share in FY26 and $6.62 in FY27.
I think receiving substantial, fully-franked dividends while Rio Tinto develops its copper operations adds to the appeal of holding the shares patiently.
Of course, dividends from miners can move significantly with commodity prices and earnings, so I would never treat those forecasts as guaranteed.
Foolish takeaway
I think it is a good time to buy Rio Tinto shares.
The near-term growth forecasts are hardly exciting, but I do not think they capture the strongest part of the investment case.
At around 15 times forecast earnings, I believe investors are paying a reasonable price for a major global miner whose production mix could become increasingly attractive as copper's importance grows.
I would be happy to buy Rio Tinto today and give that story several years to develop.
