The benchmark finished yesterday's session at 9,271.60 points.
That was a gain of 0.9% on the day, and it capped a fourth consecutive session of gains for a market that has barely paused for breath.
Over the past month, the index has added more than 4%. Compare that to the whole FY26, where the ASX 200 has delivered a total return of just 6.1%. That return below its longer-run average of roughly 9.6%.
In other words, the market has done a large chunk of its annual work in a very short window, which is why a number of strategists are starting to sound cautious.
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What is driving the ASX 200 higher?
Three forces have done most of the heavy lifting.
The first is a quirk of our market's composition.
UBS strategist Richard Schellbach has argued that Australian shares tend to benefit when global artificial intelligence names wobble, because Asian investors rotate into the ASX precisely for its lack of pure-play AI exposure.
That has made our market something of a shelter during a volatile stretch for chip stocks.
The second driver is geopolitics.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flagged a possible agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and both oil prices and bond yields eased on the news.
Falling yields tend to support equity valuations, and financials in particular.
The third is commodities.
Copper futures have climbed to within striking distance of record highs.
US manufacturing activity has also picked up, with the July ISM index rising to 55.6 from 53.3, its strongest reading since May 2022.
Recent earnings: two heavyweights delivering
So, which ASX shares have been driving these returns?
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has been a standout.
The investment bank reported FY26 net profit after tax of $4,847 million, representing a 30% lift on FY25.
The second half alone contributed $3,192 million, a record half-year result for the group, while return on equity came in at 14.0%.
As a result, the board declared a final ordinary dividend of $4.20 per share, franked at 35%, and Macquarie shares touched a fresh all-time high of $267.90 on Thursday.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has been the other engine. Its shares soared 62% across FY26.
Copper did much of that work, with the metal climbing 18% over the financial year.
Consequently, BHP is now the world's largest copper producer.
Copper contributed more than half of underlying EBITDA in the first half of FY26, which was the first time in the company's history that copper earnings exceeded those from iron ore.
Investors will get a fuller picture when BHP hands down its FY26 result on 18 August.
Can the ASX 200 keep climbing?
Brokers are noticeably more cautious than the price movements may suggest.
Morgans has a hold rating on BHP shares with a $59.80 price target.
Macquarie also rates the miner a hold with a $60.20 target, and neither call implies much upside from recent levels.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on 11 August.
The cash rate sits at 4.35% after three increases earlier this year, and all four major banks now expect the central bank to hold.
For their part, money markets are pricing almost no chance of a move.
A hold would clear one obvious source of near-term uncertainty, whereas the reporting season is the other swing factor.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and BHP alone account for a large slice of the index, and both reveal their books this month.
Foolish takeaway
The ASX 200 is at record highs for reasons that are largely external.
A softer oil price, easing bond yields and a global rotation away from AI-heavy markets have all helped, and none of those are things Australian investors control.
Record highs are not a reason to sell, but they are not a reason to chase either.
The better question is whether the businesses you own are still growing their earnings.
For long-term investors, the durability of those earnings has always been the most important factor to consider.
