BHP shares soared 62% in FY26. Can they keep climbing?

BHP shares were one of the standout performers on the ASX 200 last financial year.

The BHP share price soared 62% in FY26 to finish at $59.40 on 30 June.

That was a spectacular run for the Australia's largest company.

The question now is whether the shares can keep climbing in FY27.

Let's take a look.

What drove BHP shares higher in FY26

Two forces did most of the heavy lifting.

First, commodity prices ran hot: the copper price rose 18% over FY26 and hit a record US$6.60 per pound in May.

Iron ore prices also climbed by around 7%.

Second, investors rotated heavily into mining stocks.

That combination pushed BHP shares to a new high in FY26.

Yet there is a bigger story here: BHP is now the world's largest copper producer.

Copper made up more than half of the company's underlying EBITDA in the first half of FY26. Copper is essential to electrification, data centres, and the broader energy transition. All of these are global megatrends that can be expected to only intensify in future years.

For the first time in BHP's history, copper earnings exceeded those of iron ore.

Can BHP shares keep climbing?

After such a big run, the easy gains may be behind us.

Most brokers are now sitting on the fence.

Morgans recently reiterated a hold rating and lifted its target from $54.90 to $59.80. Macquarie also has a hold rating with a $60.20 target. Overall, the broker consensus target sits near $61.44.

Based on recent prices, that implies only modest single-digit upside.

The dividend still appeals, though. CommSec estimates dividends of $2.10 per share in FY26, a yield of around 3.6%.

BHP's balance sheet also remains strong, with low net debt.

However, not everything is smooth sailing. A review of the Jansen potash project in Canada resulted in a hefty cost blowout.

There is also the ongoing concern around industrial action at BHP's Pilbara iron ore operations.

Investors will get more clarity when the company reports its FY26 results on 18 August.

Foolish takeaway

BHP shares have had a brilliant run.

Copper's growing role in the global economy also gives investors a long-term tailwind.

But after a 62% gain, brokers see only limited near-term upside.

For patient investors, the dividend and copper leverage may still appeal.

Just don't expect BHP shares to repeat their FY26 heroics every single year.