The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has rallied higher over the past month as inflation concerns ease and investor confidence returns to the share market.
The rotation into ASX 200 shares has pushed some huge players to an all-time high. Here's how South32 Ltd (ASX: S32), Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are tracking today. And what brokers expect next.
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Buy South32 shares
The ASX miner announced a substantial jump in its ore reserve estimate at its Sierra Gorda mine yesterday. The update extends the mine's reserve life by another five years, to 2045.
The Sierra Gorda copper mine, in which South32 holds a 45% stake, is a large, open-pit operation in northern Chile. This major jump in ore reserves and resources comes after significant drilling to better define the orebody, providing more certainty over future production.
The share price is also in focus ahead of the company's FY26 financial results, which it is due to post to the ASX tomorrow.
At the time of writing, the shares have risen slightly, by around 0.5% to $5.14 a piece. Today's rise might be small, but it has pushed South32 shares to a fresh four-year high.
South32 shares are now up around 45% for the year to date and are 77% higher than 12 months ago.
At the time of writing, brokers are positive about the stock. But after the latest rally, some forecasts imply a downside ahead. Market Index data shows the majority have a hold rating but the $4.94 average target price now implies a downside of around 4%.
Sell Woolworths shares
ASX consumer staples stock Woolworths is turning heads today after it posted its full-year FY26 results to the market this morning.
The supermarket giant reported a 3.6% year-on-year boost in sales to $71.54 billion. And EBITDA (before significant items) increased by 6.7% to $6.09 billion. On the bottom line, Woolworths achieved a NPAT (before significant items) of $1.60 billion, up 15.4%.
The bumper results meant management were able to increase the final fully-franked dividend by 15.6% from last year's final payout of 52 cents per share.
Investors were clearly pleased with the result.
At the time of writing, the shares are up around 4% for the day so far and are changing hands at a multi-year high of $40.50 a piece.
The shares are now up around 38% for the year to date and are 21% higher than 12 months ago.
But after the latest rally, market experts are warning that the shares are now overpricing and trading above fair value.
Market Index data shows sentiment is split between a hold and sell rating. But the $37.13 average target price now implies a potential 8% downside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
Hold BHP shares
Mining giant BHP has had an exceptional rally over the past 12 months. Copper prices have significantly boosted the miner's profits at the same time that iron ore has remained reasonably resilient.
The latest rally was also supported by the miner's record FY26 earnings results, which it posted to the ASX last week.
The group posted a strong operational performance across all its key segments and an impressive 27% increase in its underlying EBITDA.
Investors were clearly thrilled with the results and many rushed to snap up the stock.
At the time of writing, BHP shares are up around 0.5% and trading at a fresh all-time high of $68.02 a piece. That's a 49% increase for the year to date and 60% above trading levels this time last year.
But after a strong rally, it looks like BHP shares have now reached a ceiling. In fact, some think that the stock is now trading above fair value and could be due a correction.
Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a hold rating on BHP shares. But the $61.78 average target price now implies a 9% downside ahead, at the time of writing.
