S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank shares have rebounded through July.
Overall, ASX 200 bank shares have climbed over the past month, though they have yet to rebound to the bumper levels seen earlier this year.
Slower economic growth, moderating inflation data, and expectations of interest rate cuts later in the year have all helped improve investor sentiment.
Other sectors, such as industrials, materials, and utilities, have tumbled lower, while weaker commodity prices have also pulled down the gold and mining sector.
The shift saw an increase in investors rotating into more defensive, income-generating sectors such as financials.
However, concerns about overinflated prices, mortgage competition, and slowing credit growth kept share price growth subdued.
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What happened to the ASX 200 big four major banks in July?
Australia's banking sector is dominated by the big four banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ).
Together, they make up around a quarter of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation.
At the time of writing, with only a couple more days left of the month, CBA shares are up around 0.2% for the day and changing hands at $176.34 a piece. The ASX 200 major bank's shares are also around 8% higher over the past month.
NAB shares are also trending higher on Tuesday morning, up around 0.2% to $41.01 a piece, at the time of writing. NAB shares have risen around 8% over the past month.
ANZ shares are also up 0.2% for the day so far, at $36.94. Over the past month, the bank stock has also climbed higher, up around 5%.
Meanwhile, Westpac shares have dipped slightly into the red this morning, down around 0.1% to $37.66 a piece. But over the past month, the shares have risen around 7%.
What about the mid-tier banks?
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) shares are up around 0.5% on Tuesday morning, to $11.06 a piece. Over the month, the shares are also up around 6%.
It's a similar story for Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) shares. They have climbed around 0.5% in early morning trade, to $6.51 a piece. The ASX bank stock is also up roughly 4% over the month.
But Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares have fallen into the red on Tuesday morning, down roughly 1.5% to $254.72. Over the month, the bank was the worst-performing ASX bank stock, although the shares still climbed by around 2% higher.
Which ASX bank shares are a buy for August?
While Macquarie shares are technically the slowest performer so far this July, brokers are very bullish about the outlook over the next 12 months. TradingView data shows the majority have a buy rating on the investment bank's shares, and the $262.77 average target price implies a potential 3% upside ahead.
Which ones are rated a sell?
Brokers still rate CBA shares as a strong sell. The latest $125.51 target price on TradingView now implies a potential 29% downside ahead for investors, at the time of writing.
The majority also have a sell rating on Westpac shares. The latest $33.35 average target price now implies a potential 12% downside, according to TradingView data.
BOQ shares are also expected to fall over the next 12 months. Most brokers rate the ASX bank as a sell, and the $60.81 average target price on TradingView now implies a 7% downside ahead.
Which ASX bank shares do brokers rate as a hold?
Then there are the ASX 200 bank shares that analysts are on the fence about.
TradingView data shows brokers are divided between a buy and sell rating on ANZ shares. The $34.91 target price, however, implies a potential 6% downside at the time of writing.
The data also shows that the majority have a hold rating on NAB shares. The average $37.94 target price on the ASX bank stock also implies a potential downside of around 7% at the time of writing.
Bendigo shares are also tipped to fall by around 6% to an average target price of $10.44.
