The team at Bell Potter has provided updated guidance on one of Australia's most popular defensive shares: Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS).
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Why Telstra shares are in so many portfolios
Telstra is Australia's largest and longest-running provider of telecommunications and information products and services.
As one of the largest listed companies on the ASX, the telecommunications and information service provider also has a presence in 20 countries around the globe.
Its market dominance provides a defensive option for many investors, while also having a strong track record of paying healthy dividends.
These characteristics have helped Telstra shares climb 6% in 2026, while much of the ASX 200 has lagged amid global headwinds and inflation fears.
So is it a buy, hold or sell according to Bell Potter?
Here is what the broker is saying.
Under the microscope
Bell Potter has updated its forecasts before the end of the financial year.
The changes reflect:
- Higher mobile plan prices introduced in early May.
- Higher NBN broadband prices for home and small business customers from 1 July.
- Growing competition from Starlink, especially in regional and remote Australia.
- More certainty about Telstra's share buyback, which affects the number of shares on issue.
Bell Potter slightly increased its revenue forecasts (by less than 1%) to reflect Telstra's recent price rises, but trimmed its underlying EBITDAaL profit forecasts by around 1% for FY26–FY28, as higher costs and increasing competition are expected to offset much of the additional revenue.
Overall, Telstra's recent price increases should modestly boost revenue, but stronger competition (particularly from Starlink) and other factors slightly reduce profit expectations.
Bell Potter still expects Telstra to deliver on its guidance and maintain its dividend.
Hold recommendation maintained
Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has a hold recommendation on Telstra shares along with a $5.10 price target.
This target indicates that Telstra shares are currently trading close to fair value.
We expect little if any surprises at the upcoming result so the focus shifts to the FY27 guidance and outlook. We and the market continue to forecast mid to high single digit growth in the key metrics of underlying EBITDAaL, cash EBIT and EPS.
Bell Potter said the key focus, therefore, is more likely to be on capital management and, in particular, whether any further share buy-back is announced.
Telstra has already flagged growing dividends as part of its Capital Management Framework but there is perhaps some question over whether it can continue to fund share buy-backs consistent with the levels of the past two years.
