Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares have fallen even further into the red in Thursday morning trade.
At the time of writing, the shares are down around 2% and changing hands at $20.22 a piece.
The latest decline means the ASX gold miner's shares are now around 17% lower for the year-to-date but still roughly 5% above trading levels seen this time last year.
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What happened to Northern Star Resources shares this year?
The shares had an incredibly strong start to 2026, climbing almost 30% to an all-time high of $31.73 in early March.
But investors quickly sold their shares in the ASX gold miner shortly after its operational update, causing a 46% share price crash. The shares are now trading around 36% below that peak.
The company also downgraded its FY26 production outlook on two separate occasions earlier this year. At the time, management flagged a weaker-than-expected performance across several key operations.
Gold price weakness also added further pressure. Throughout March, the price of the safe-haven metal crashed from around US$5,300 per ounce to around US$4,300 per ounce. The drop came on the back of inflation concerns and liquidity pressures, which resulted directly from an outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
The outbreak of the Iran war led investors to sell liquid assets, including gold, to raise cash as broader markets declined. At the same time, rising oil prices increased inflation concerns and raised the prospect of higher interest rates, which is typically negative for gold.
As a gold producer, Northern Star's revenue is heavily dependent on the price of gold. Falling gold prices, combined with a lower production outlook, have compressed the company's share price this year.
The question now is, can they recover? Or is there more downside ahead?
Are the shares a buy, sell or hold now?
According to the experts, there is still plenty of potential for the ASX gold stock to recover over the next 12 months.
Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the Northern Star shares. The $27.74 target price implies a potential upside of around 37% at the time of writing.
On TradingView data, analysts are significantly more bullish. Out of 18 analysts, 11 have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. Another five rate the gold shares as a hold, and two have a sell stance.
The average $26.37 target price implies a potential 30% upside at the time of writing. But some think Northern Star shares could soar another 65% to $33.50 over the next 12 months.
Bell Potter is one of the more bullish brokers on Northern Star shares. It has a buy rating and $35 target price. It notes that while the guidance downgrades are disappointing, it still sees potential positives given the high capital and operating costs at some of the company's sites.
Baker Young has a sell rating on the shares. He said that the miner has underperformed and that the team would seek alternative gold exposure.
