ASX gold shares are putting in a mixed performance as the gold price reverses course after a four-day run of gains.
Safe-haven trading inspired a four-day sprint after the US Supreme Court declared US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs illegal.
Trump has responded by slapping a 15% tariff on every nation for 150 days, which means a 50% increase for Australia.
The gold price lifted 2% overnight to close at US$5,209.55 per ounce.
However, the yellow metal has reversed course during intraday trading on Tuesday.
The gold price is currently US$5,183 per tonne, down 0.8%.
This has led to a 1.2% fall in the S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) today.
Analysts at Trading Economics said the gold price is falling as traders consider renewed tariff risks and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
They said nations were reassessing their trade positions after the ruling, despite Trump's threats of higher tariffs if they "play games".
The analysts commented:
The EU halted the ratification process of its trade agreement, while India deferred talks with the US.
On the geopolitical front, attention remains on US-Iran nuclear talks, set to resume on Thursday.
Trump said he prefers a negotiated settlement but cautioned that serious consequences could follow if a deal is not reached.
Image source: Getty Images
5 ASX 200 gold shares reached record highs today
The day started on a high with five ASX 200 gold shares reaching new record highs, before retreating.
The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price rose 5.6% to a record $30.93 this morning.
The market's largest ASX 200 gold share is now $29.33, up 0.1%.
The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price rose 5.2% to a new record high of $16.39 in earlier trading.
Now, Evolution shares are $15.38, down 1.3%.
Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) shares lifted 5.7% to an all-time high of $5.16 before reversing course.
The ASX 200 gold share is now $4.81 apiece, down 1.5%.
Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) shares rose 4.8% to a record $7.93 apiece this morning.
Now, Westgold Resources shares are $7.68, up 1.4%.
The Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) share price reached a multi-decade high of $9.22, up 3.6%, in earlier trading.
The ASX 200 gold share is now $8.80, down 1.2%.
What's next for the gold price?
Shaw & Partners predicts that the gold price will increase to US$6,000 per ounce in CY26.
The broker is tipping a further rise to US$6,500 per ounce in CY27 and US$7,000 per ounce in CY28.
Bank of America is forecasting gold to reach US$6,000 per ounce this year.
In a note to clients, BoA analyst Michael Hartnett said (courtesy Kitco News):
History no guide to future, but avg gold jump past 4 bull markets ≈ 300% in 43 months which would imply gold reaching $6,000 by spring.
Some analysts are even more optimistic.
René Hochreiter from NOAH Capital Markets and Sieberana Research anticipates a peak gold price of US$6,300 per ounce in CY26.
He comments:
Geopolitical events in 2026 are likely to continue unabated, putting upward pressure on the price.
World governments are building up their gold reserves in anticipation of de-dollarisation.
Julia Du from ICBC Standard Bank says the gold price could crack US$7,000 per ounce this year.
I expect 2026 to be a year of heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven demand, allowing gold to continue the volatile yet upward trend.
Central banks are likely to keep adding to reserves, institutional investors will increase portfolio allocations, and retail demand – especially in Latin America – should remain robust.
Combined with continued Fed rate cuts, these forces support a bullish bias.
Other experts are less ambitious with their forecasts.
Last month, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for 2026 to US$5,400 per ounce.
The broker said this prediction is based on two factors:
The first is continued purchases by central banks as they continue to diversify their reserves by buying bullion.
The second is investor allocations into gold thanks to the Federal Reserve rate cuts that Goldman Sachs Research expects to see this year.
Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs Research, expects volatility for the gold price but also sees a "significant upside" risk to the broker's forecast.
James Steel from HSBC tips a peak price of US$5,050 per ounce.
Steel says:
The "fear of missing out" has attracted a new coterie of buyers which is injecting added volatility into the market.
Heavy buying by institutional investors including momentum purchases may continue.
Long positions on the CME are high but subject to liquidation. Trading may be characterised by wide ranges this year.
