5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday 4 February 2026

5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

It looks set to be a tough session for Aussie investors on hump day.

James Mickleboro

Author Bio James Mickleboro is an investment writer and analyst who has worked with The Motley Fool Australia for 10 years, covering ASX shares, market news, broker research, dividends, growth stocks, and long-term investing ideas. Over that time, James has written extensively about Australian equities and developed a particular focus on helping everyday investors understand the stories behind share price moves, company announcements, broker views, and broader market trends. His best investment recommendation was identifying Afterpay while it was still a small-cap growth share, before its rise into one of Australia’s biggest technology success stories. His worst investment lesson came from CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), where he was burnt by believing management could turn the business around sooner than the market ultimately allowed. Areas of Expertise ASX shares Growth and dividend investing Broker research Interpreting company announcements Market news Portfolio strategy Long-term wealth creation Education Bachelor of Politics, Philosophy and Economics. CFA Institute Social Media LinkedIn Favorite Investment Quote "It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." — Warren Buffett

Published February 4, 7:01 am AEDT

On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) returned to form and charged higher. The benchmark index rose 0.9% to 8,857.1 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

Focused man entrepreneur with glasses working, looking at laptop screen thinking about something intently while sitting in the office. — Image source: Getty Images

ASX 200 to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Wednesday after a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 58 points or 0.65% lower this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 0.8%, the S&P 500 is down 1.35% and the Nasdaq is 2.15% lower.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session on Wednesday after oil prices pushed higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.9% to US$63.31 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.7% to US$67.42 a barrel. This was driven by a sharp fall in oil inventories.

Rio Tinto shares on watch

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares will be on watch on Wednesday. This is because the deadline for the potential Glencore (LSE: GLEN) takeover is rapidly approaching. Rio Tinto has until tomorrow to make an offer, otherwise LSE rules state that it cannot make another play for Glencore for another six months.

Gold price rebounds

ASX 200 gold shares such as Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Wednesday after the gold price rebounded overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 6.65% to US$4,961.4 an ounce. Traders appear to believe the precious metal was oversold in recent sessions.

Pinnacle results

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI) shares will be on watch on Wednesday after the investment company released its half-year results. The company reported an 11% decline in net profit after tax to $67.3 million. In light of this profit decline, Pinnacle was forced to cut its interim dividend by 12% to 29 cents per share. This weaker result reflects lower performance fees from its affiliates.

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