Owning Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares can be a volatile ride because of the shifts in energy prices over the months and years as supply and demand shift.
It's challenging to predict what's going to happen next, but analysts can gain insights from certain factors (such as production) and forecast Woodside's revenue and costs.
We're going to look at what experts think of Woodside shares and the profit prospects in the next few years.
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FY25
The 2025 financial year is already over for Woodside, but investors haven't seen what the numbers are yet, so we're going to look at what analysts think those numbers may be.
UBS is predicting that FY25 could see US$12.8 billion of revenue, US$3.95 billion of operating profit (EBIT) and US$2.2 billion of net profit. The balance sheet is projected to have reached US$7.3 billion of net debt at the end of 2025.
These final projections before the actual result's release in February were in response to the 2025 fourth quarter production.
UBS noted that production was 4% better and revenue was 7% ahead of market expectations due to stronger oil production from both Mad Dog (US Gulf Coast) and Sangomar (Senegal).
The broker said that while Sangomar has started to decline from the fourth quarter of 2025, a beneficial one-off adjustment to Woodside's share of production under the sharing contract with the Senegalese government saw higher quarter-over-quarter production net to Woodside.
After seeing the quarterly update, UBS increased its 2025 estimate for earnings per share (EPS) by 8%.
However, it was also noted that trading volumes in LNG were cut materially over the fourth quarter. The trading division is expected to see a trading loss of around $10 million in the second half of 2025 – trading volumes in LNG were swapped with longer trading volumes in oil, according to UBS.
The broker said that while the FY25 result is now substantially 'de-risked', it remains cautious for Woodside shares of a material forecast decline of FY26's net profit and free cash flow.
FY26
Despite a strong 2025 fourth quarter of oil production, UBS said that new 2026 production for Woodside was 4% below the market's expectations at the midpoint.
Production guidance (by product) points to weaker oil production in 2026 than the market expected (LNG production was in line).
UBS said it believes the key driver of the market's view of an implied 13% cut to 2026 oil production guidance (which is forecast by the market to meet the midpoint of guidance) is a "faster decline rate at Sangomar followed by the natural field decline" in Australian oil assets.
It cut its 2026 (and onwards) EPS estimates due to a steeper decline in oil production, primarily from Sangomar and higher interest cost driven by higher capital expenditure during 2026 and higher tax.
The broker is forecasting that in 2026, Woodside could generate US$10.7 billion of revenue and US$1 billion of net profit.
FY27
UBS didn't have much to say about the 2027 financial year projection and onwards, but it provided estimates.
In FY27, the broker forecasts that the business could generate revenue of US$11.2 billion and make net profit of US$1.58 billion, representing the start of a recovery from the low financial point in FY26.
FY28
The company's financials could improve in FY28, according to UBS' projections.
In the 2028 financial year, the broker forecasts the ASX energy share could make US$12 billion of revenue and net profit of US$1.98 billion.
UBS has a neutral rating on Woodside shares, with a price target of $23.10, suggesting a noticeable decline over the next year.
