Why Woodside shares just got a big buy call

A leading analyst forecasts more outperformance from Woodside's surging shares.

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Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock closed on Friday trading for $30.91. At the time of writing (remember, markets were closed on Monday for the King's Holiday), shares are swapping hands for $31.06 apiece, up 0.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.5% at this same time following lower expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate relief and renewed fighting in the Middle East over the weekend.

That sees the Brent Crude oil price holding at US$94 per barrel, up 54% year to date.

Surging global energy prices, along with its own operational successes, have sent the Woodside share price up 31.3% in 2026, smashing the 1.7% year-to-date losses posted by the benchmark index.

And that's not including the 83.5 cents per share fully-franked dividend that Woodside paid to eligible stockholders on 27 March. Woodside stock currently trades on a 5.4% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

And looking ahead, MPC Markets' Mark Gardner expects the Aussie oil and gas giant to be well-placed to keep outperforming (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

An oil worker in front of a pumpjack using a tablet.

Image source: Getty Images

Should I buy Woodside shares today?

"Woodside is one of Australia's leading oil and gas producers," Gardner said. "The company remains leveraged to LNG demand from Asia."

"Energy prices remain volatile, but gas continues to play an important role in regional energy security," he noted.

Supporting his buy recommendation on Woodside shares, Gardner pointed to the company's promising growth projects. That includes the Scarborough Energy project, located on and offshore in Western Australia.

According to Gardner:

The Scarborough Energy project is reportedly 96% complete and on track for first LNG cargoes in the fourth quarter of 2026. In our view, the market isn't fully pricing in the production uplift from Woodside's major growth projects.

While Woodside's passive income payouts have come down from their peak levels of 2022 and 2023, Gardner remained bullish on the energy stock's outlook.

"The dividend has been under pressure, but the balance sheet and asset base remain appealing for investors seeking energy exposure," he concluded.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 oil and gas stock?

Woodside reported its first-quarter results on 29 April.

Highlights included a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase in operating revenue, which reached US$3.26 billion.

As for the strong balance sheet Gardner mentioned above, Woodside reported liquidity of around US$8.3 billion as at 31 March.

And on the major projects front, recently appointed Woodside CEO Liz Westcott noted, "We continued disciplined delivery of major cash-generative growth projects."

Atop the Scarborough Energy Project, the company's Trion oil project was 56% complete, while its Louisiana LNG Project was 24% complete at the end of the quarter.

Woodside shares closed up 2% on the day of the results release.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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