Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares are edging lower today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy provider closed yesterday trading for $10.85. In morning trade on Friday, shares are changing hands for $10.81 apiece, down 0.4%, roughly in line with the 0.4% losses posted by the benchmark index at this same time.
Taking a step back, the stock is up 1.9% over the past 12 months, just beating the 1.3% one-year gains posted by the ASX 200.
But we should note that the past year also saw the company pay out 60 cents a share in fully-franked dividends. At current prices, Origin Energy shares trade on an 5.6% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.
Now, here's why Catapult Wealth's Dylan Evans believes the Aussie energy provider is well-placed to outperform in the year ahead (courtesy of The Bull).
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Should I buy Origin Energy shares today?
"Origin is a key player in Australia's energy supply chain," Evans said.
Citing the first reason he has a buy recommendation on Origin Energy shares, he noted:
Broader energy supply disruptions caused by the conflict in Iran are likely to be a net positive for Origin. The company's gas will become more appealing to Asian consumers when compared to Middle Eastern competitors.
Then there's the company's recent sales growth.
"Electricity sales volumes in the March quarter were up 4% on the prior quarter," Evans said.
And the third compelling reason you might want to buy the ASX 200 energy stock today is its promising long-term outlook.
Evans concluded, "Longer term, Origin is positioned to benefit from electrification and its energy security."
What's been happening with the ASX 200 energy share?
Origin Energy reported its half-year results (H1 FY 2026) on 12 February.
Underlying profit of $593 million was down from $924 million in the prior corresponding period. And underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $1.59 billion were down from $1.93 billion.
However, underlying EBITDA of $860 million from the company's Energy Markets business was up $122 million year on year.
This saw the company upgrade its Energy Markets' full-year underlying EBITDA guidance to between $1.55 billion and $1.75 billion, driven by the improved electricity business performance.
Investors responded to the update by sending Origin Energy shares up 3.9% on the day.
Following the company's third-quarter update, released on 27 April, Origin Energy CEO Frank Calabria highlighted the ongoing strength of its Energy Markets business.
Calabria said:
In Energy Markets, Origin continued to grow its share of Australia's data centre market, and we're well positioned to support the further growth in demand from this sector through grid connections, long-term renewable contracts, and on-site solar and batteries.
