Wilson Asset Management lead portfolio manager Matthew Haupt prefers ASX mining shares over bank stocks for 2026.
Let's find out why.
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Fundie explains preference for ASX mining shares in 2026
Haupt said a recent trip to China revealed the nation's renewed focus on the private sector, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence (AI).
China's economy is still growing but at a slower pace, with disinflation now entrenched and its property sector in a serious slump.
The Chinese Government appears open to stimulus and wants to take on the US in the AI race.
As a result, Haupt and his team are positive on iron ore, coal, and aluminium as China swaps property construction for AI infrastructure.
In The Australian, Haupt commented:
So there will be a huge amount of investment in AI infrastructure.
What I did off the back of this trip is I bought a whole lot of aluminium stocks, because aluminium looks pretty good. So we got Alcoa Corporation CDI (ASX: AAI).
Coal looks good, so we bought Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC).
Haupt and his team also conducted a deep assessment on global demand for steel.
They are positive on ASX iron ore shares BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) for 2026.
This is despite all three ASX 200 mining shares reaching new 52-week highs this week amid rising commodity prices.
Resources have done pretty well but we still think they look pretty good for 2026.
What about ASX bank shares?
Haupt and his team are concerned about high valuations for ASX bank shares, with the big four all hitting record highs in 2025.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are now in decline following a phenomenal run between November 2023 and June this year.
Meanwhile, BHP shares have surged and appear to be on their way to reclaiming the No. 1 spot on the local bourse from CBA.
The prospect of an interest rate hike in Australia next year also creates a headwind for ASX bank shares.
Haupt notes the recent divergence in US monetary policy from Australian monetary policy in 1H FY26.
This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold while the US Fed cut for the third time in four months.
The Australian cash rate is 3.6% while the US interest rate range is now 3.5% to 3.75%.
Haupt says offshore capital is rotating out of Australia and back into North Asia.
The reason why banks and a whole lot of our (major) stocks went crazy was a lot of offshore money was hitting the ASX and also our debt capital markets; basically China was seen as uninvestible.
What we're seeing now is China's getting better and capital is flying back.
He added:
So some of those silly valuations we saw, particularly in CBA and the rest of the banking sector and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), are in reverse now and we expect that to continue.
