Should you buy Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares, Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares, or Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares?
That's the million-dollar question the team over at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) dig into in their new Australia Energy report, released on Thursday.
Before we look at Macquarie's share price forecasts for the three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stocks, here's how they've been tracking this year.
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How have the ASX 200 energy stocks performed in 2025?
Woodside shares closed on Friday trading for $25.15 apiece. That sees the ASX 200 energy stock up a slender 0.8% year to date.
Woodside shares also trade on a fully franked 6.6% trailing dividend yield.
Beach Energy shares closed on Friday trading for $1.17 each. Beach Energy shares have dropped 17.6% in 2025. The ASX 200 stock also trades on a 7.7% fully franked trailing dividend yield.
And Santos shares closed out the week with changing hands for $6.48 apiece. This sees Santos shares down 4.3% in 2025. Santos also trades on a 6.5% partly franked trailing dividend yield.
That's the year (almost) gone by.
As for the year ahead…
Does Macquarie prefer Beach, Santos or Woodside shares?
Looking to 2026, Macquarie expects that Beach Energy, Santos and Woodside shares will all face headwinds from amid falling natural gas prices.
"Led by our global commodities colleagues, we lower spot LNG prices through 2026, factoring loosening gas markets as new LNG capacities arrive," the broker said.
According to Macquarie:
We believe an underweight position in Oil & Gas is warranted, given our still bearish oil and LNG outlooks. Within this, Santos remains our top pick, where we see value appeal on an absolute and relative basis (and clear catalysts to re-rate).
Of the three ASX 200 energy stocks, Macquarie is the most bearish on Beach Energy, with an underperform rating.
"We continue to believe BPT shares are overvalued by the market (based on its existing assets). M&A could be an opportunity to enhance value," the broker said.
Macquarie has a 77-cent price target on Beach Energy shares. That's 34.2% below Friday's closing price.
The broker has a better outlook for Woodside shares, with a neutral rating on the stock.
Macquarie noted:
Sangomar oilfield has performed exceptionally well over its first 5 quarters – we now include 50% risking for a Phase 2 project (was 0%). Scarborough project tracking well for 2H26 start. However, we are concerned that deteriorating gas markets in 2027-28 will hurt sentiment as WDS progresses the 28mtpa largely uncontracted US LNG project.
The broker has a $25.00 price target on Woodside shares, or 0.6% below Friday's closing price.
Which brings us to…
The ASX 200 energy share Macquarie expects to outperform
Macquarie expects that Santos shares will materially outperform Beach Energy and Woodside shares in 2026.
Explaining its outperform rating on Santos, the broker said:
We see significant value in STO following the deal break with XRG/ Carlyle, and expect this to be better recognised once customer deliveries commence from Barossa gas project via Darwin LNG (within weeks) and Pikka oil in Alaska (1Q-2026).
Macquarie has an $8.00 price target on Santos shares. That represents a potential upside of 23.5% from Friday's closing price.
